The Pakistan Development Review
Not a member yet
2465 research outputs found
Sort by
Investing in People (The Presidential Address)
No full textSyed Naveed Qamar, Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural
Resources, Dr Ishfaq Ahmad, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission,
Professor Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi, Former President, PSDE, Dr Sarfraz
Khan Qureshi, Former President, PSDE, Dr G. M. Arif, Secretary, PSDE,
Past Presidents and Distinguished Members of the Society. Excellencies,
Ladies and Gentlemen It is my pleasure to welcome you all to the 25th
Annual General Meeting and Conference of the Pakistan Society of
Development Economists. We are extremely grateful to Syed Naveed Qamar,
Federal Minister, Petroleum and Natural Resources, for having spared his
precious time to join us at the inaugural session. It was during your
tenure as Finance Minister that important and difficult economic
decisions were taken to restore macroeconomic stability resulting from
the unprecedented increases in international commodity prices, the
global financial meltdown and neglect and inaction of past
policy-makers. That the economy today has achieved macro stability in
many of the key indicators is to a large measure the result of these
decisions. I am also extremely grateful to our Patron Dr Ishfaq Ahmad,
Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, for his active interest and
support to the work of our Society. A warm welcome to our members and
guests who have come from different parts of the country and abroad. It
is especially satisfying to see our future economists from all over the
country join us at the Conference. Let me join Dr Arif in welcoming Dr
Mohsin Khan who will be delivering the Quaid-i-Azam Lecture, Professor
Hirashima who will be delivering the Allama Iqbal Lecture, Professor
John Casterline, the Mahbubul Haq Lecture and Professor Robin Burgess,
the Gustav Ranis Lecture (which we started last year)
An Investigation of Firm Heterogeneity in the Constraints to Development and Growth in Pakistan
Get PDFThis study considers the importance of firm characteristics in
explaining the degree of business constraints facing Pakistani firms in
the Investment Climate Survey. We quantify how firms with differing
characteristics experience particular problems. After controlling for
other factors, the largest differences in responses to business
constraints occur among firms that vary by manufacturing industry, and
among firms operating under different ownership structures or selling in
different markets. In some cases, firm size and firm location also play
an important role. The age of the firm generally does not lead to
significant differences. These results account for the heterogeneity of
firms better than others, and may be important for policy-makers to
develop more specific approaches to fostering the investment
climate
Do Foreign Inflows Benefit Pakistani Poor?
Get PDFForeign Inflow plays an important role in country’s
development. The importance of foreign inflows is not limited to
developing countries; developed and emerging economies also attract
foreign inflows to supplement their resources to sustain growth. The
importance of foreign inflow in Pakistan is very well acknowledged and
documented, however the affect of these inflows on poor people of
Pakistan remains unanswered. This paper is an attempt to fill this gap
by studying the impact of foreign inflows on poverty reduction in
Pakistan through the channel of health, education and other indicators
related to human development. Our foreign inflow variable consists of
Foreign Direct Investment, Remittances and Foreign Assistance. Using
ARDL approach to co-integration on time series data for the period 1972
to 2008, we found that foreign inflows as a whole have increased poverty
levels in Pakistan. At disaggregated levels, we found that foreign
assistance is the major component of inflows which is responsible for
the positive relationship between inflows and poverty. We also found
positive relationship between poverty and infant mortality and foreign
inflows and female enrolment. The relationship suggests that increase in
foreign inflows would not only increase poverty but also would increase
infant mortality through indirect channel. The impact of inflow on
female enrolment was however found to be positive. JEL classification:
E00, F20, F21, F34, F35, I30 Keywords: Poverty, Economic Growth,
Pakistan, Foreign Capital, Foreign Debt, Aid, Remittances, Foreign
Direct Investmen
Single Stock Futures Trading and Stock Price Volatility: Empirical Analysis
Get PDFThis study examines impact of the introduction of single stock
futures contracts on the return volatility of the SSFs-listed underlying
stocks. The study documents a significant decrease in return volatility
for the SSFs-underlying stocks following the introduction of single
stock futures contracts on the Karachi Stock Exchange. The multivariate
analysis in which the spot trading volume, the futures trading volume
and open interest were partitioned into news and informationless
components, the estimated coefficient of expected futures volume
component is statistically significant and negatively related to
volatility, suggesting that equity volatility is mitigated when the
expected level of futures activity is high. The findings of the
decreased spot price volatility of the SSFs-underlying stocks associated
with large expected futures activity is important to the debate of
regarding the role of equity derivatives trading in stock market
volatility. These empirical results for the Pakistan’s equity market
support theories implying that equity derivates trading improves
liquidity provision and depth in the equity markets, and appear to be in
contrast to the theories implying that equity derivates markets provide
a medium for destabilising speculation. Finally, the SSFs-listed stocks
were grouped with a sample of non-SSFs stocks to examine cross-sectional
data for comparing changes in return volatility. After controlling for
the effects of a number of determinants of volatility, sufficient
evidence is found to support that, this multivariate test, like the
previous analysis, provides no evidence that the volatility of the
SSFsunderlying stocks is positively related to the introduction of the
single stock futures trading in the Pakistan’s stock market
Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner. Superfreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance. London: Penguin Books Ltd. 2009. 270 pages. Paperback. £ 14.99.
Get PDFBehavioural economics is an emerging field and
superfreakonomics provides useful insights into human behaviour observed
with respect to issues that have economic implications. The underlying
theme of the book is that human beings respond to incentives. The
authors have set up a number of interesting examples to convey how
different incentives work. The case studies discussed in the book are
based on the authors’ recent academic research; motivated by fellow
economists as well as engineers and astrophysicists, psychotic killers
and emergency room doctors, amateur historians and transgender
neuroscientists. Most of the stories fall into one of the two
categories: things you always thought you knew but in fact did not; and
things you never knew you wanted to know, but do know. The authors, with
the help of data, show that drunk walking is eight times more dangerous
than drunk driving. The message is that the misaligned incentives
(penalties) are responsible for this—only drunk driving is penalised. To
show the influence of positive incentives the authors demonstrate how
cable TV might have improved the status of women in India. A baby Indian
girl, who does grow into adulthood, faces discrimination in provision of
education, health care and remuneration in job market. In a national
health survey, 51 per cent of Indian men said that wife-beating is
defensible under certain situations and more surprisingly, 54 per cent
of the women agreed. But things are changing, albeit at a slow pace. The
authors find that cable TV has empowered Indian rural women—families
with cable TV are more likely to have a lower birth rate and more
schooling
Urban Informal Sector: How Much Women Are Struggling for Family Survival
Get PDFThe paper analyses the contribution of informally employed
women (for the age group of 16-60 years) to their household budget. The
urban informal sector largely absorbs women workers. We examine the
determinants of their contribution to their household budgets for the
survival of the families. Applying the OLS model to 937 observations, it
is found that women as heads of household, women’s education, and
ownership of assets by woman have a positive effect on their
contribution. The burden of the large family size, household poverty,
and loans availed by the household are shared by the informally employed
women, as these variables positively affect their contribution. Age of
the woman has a non-linear effect on woman’s contribution. The
contribution first increases and then decreases by an increase in the
age of the woman. Married women and women living in nuclear families
contribute more to the household budget. The household per capita income
and number of children (5-15 years) in the household have shown a
negative effect on the contribution of women to the household budget.
The household’s economic vulnerability due to unemployment of husband
and lower productivity caused by lower education of husband are also
largely shared by the urban informally employed women, i.e., they
struggle more for family survival. However, the number of adult males in
the household decreases the volume of contribution by women and the
burden on women is relaxed
Efficiency Dynamics of Sugar Industry of Pakistan.
Get PDFPakistan is the 15th largest producer of sugar in the world,
5th largest in terms of area under sugar cultivation and 60th in yield.
The sugar industry is the 2nd largest agro based industry which
comprises of 81 sugar mills. With this scenario, Pakistan has to import
sugar which exposes it to the effects of shortage and rising prices in
the world. The present sugar crisis has opened up new avenues for
researcher to analyse the performance and efficiency of the firms in
this sector. Total factor productivity plays a significant role in
measuring the performance of a firm which ultimately affects the
shareholder’s value. This paper analyses the performance of sugar firms
in Pakistan and estimate/calculate the Malmquist total factor
productivity growth indices using non-parametric approach. TFP growth is
further decomposed into technical, scale and managerial efficiency
change using balanced panel data of 20 sugar firms listed on Karachi
Stock Exchange for the period 1998 to 2007. The results reflect a
tormenting picture for the sugar industry. Overall sugar industry
improved technological progress by 0.8 percent while managerial
efficiency change put a negative effect on the productivity by a same
percentage; as a result the overall total factor productivity during
1998-2007 remained almost static with a decline of 0.1 percent. The
analysis of TFP and its sources in individual year for overall sugar
industry also presents divergent trend. The research suggests that sugar
industry is facing serious productivity growth problems where no
increase is recorded in total factor productivity during 1998 to 2007.
The sugar industry is lacking in terms of managerial efficiency which
could be explained by a general reduction in the quality of managerial
decision-making among the best practice firms. Regardless of the reason
for this decline, it has potentially serious implications for the
longer-term financial viability of these sugar firms. The pattern of TFP
growth tends to be driven more by technical change (or technical
progress) rather than improvements in technical efficiency
Inaugural Address
Get PDFDr Ishfaq Ahmad, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Dr
Rashid Amjad, President, Pakistan Society of Development Economists, Dr
G. M. Arif, Secretary Pakistan Society of Development Economists,
Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen! It is indeed a privilege and honour
to address this distinguished gathering of economists and social
scientists. Over the years the Annual Conference of the Pakistan Society
of Development Economists has become one of the leading events on the
calendar of meetings where experts from various disciplines discuss
cutting edge issues that confront developing economies in general and
Pakistan’s economy in particular. I want to especially congratulate the
Society and the President on completing 25 years as it celebrates its
Silver Jubilee. I am very happy that the founding President, Prof. Dr
Nawab Haider Naqvi is with us today and that some of the past Presidents
are also present. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, the
home of the Society, also needs to be congratulated for holding such
conferences on an annual and regular basis. I am very happy that this
meeting as in the past is being attended by internationally acclaimed
economists and academics from both within and outside the country. I am
especially heartened to see that students of economics from all over
Pakistan have been especially invited to attend this meeting
Demographic Transition and Unwanted Fertility: A Fresh Assessment (The Mahbub Ul Haq Memorial Lecture)
No full textThe distinction between wanted and unwanted fertility has been
crucial in many of the more intense debates in recent decades over the
nature of contemporary fertility declines and, in particular, the
potential impact of expanded provision of family planning services. In a
much-debated article published in 1994, Pritchett argues that decline in
desired fertility is overwhelmingly the principal source of fertility
decline, with the implication that family planning programmes are of
little consequence. I revisit this debate drawing on a far larger body
of survey data and, more importantly, an alternative fertility
specification which relies on a non-conventional definition of wanted
and unwanted fertility rates and which distinguishes rates and
composition. Decompositions of fertility decline in the period from the
mid-1970s to the present are carried out for 44 countries. The
decomposition results indicate that declines in unwanted fertility rates
have been at least as important, if not more important, than declines in
wanted fertility rates. Surprisingly, shifts in the proportion of women
wanting to stop childbearing—i.e., changes in preference composition—has
contributed very little to fertility change in this period. Further,
decline in wanted fertility and increases in non-marital exposure (due
largely to delayed entry into first marriage) have also made substantial
contributions, although on average they fall short of the contribution
of declines in unwanted fertility rates. That declines in unwanted
fertility have been an essential feature of contemporary fertility
decline is the main conclusion from this research. This in turn opens
the door to new perspectives on fertility pre-, mid-, and
post-transition which recognises the inter-dependencies between
fertility demand and unwanted fertility rates in the determination of
the overall level of fertility. JEL classification: J11, J13, R11
Keywords: Demography, Fertility, Family Planning, Regional
Economic
Determinants of Export Performance of Pakistan: Evidence from the Firm-Level Data
Get PDFThis paper explores the determinants of export performance at
the level of firms in respect of their characteristics and supply side
constraints. The analysis is based on a survey of export-oriented firms
in four major sectors. The results indicate a relationship between the
better performance of foreign-owned firms to their better know-how and
resources compared to the domestically owned firms. Export performance
is positively affected by the level of investment in market/client
oriented technologies. Lack of certification of product and process
standards is the main supply side constraint adversely affecting the
firms’ export performance. Facilitation measures like export processing
zones, internationally recognised testing labs, and industrial clusters
would be helpful in improving the export performance of firms. JEL
classification: F1, L1, L6 Keywords: Trade, Exports, Firms, Performance,
Manufacturin