The Pakistan Development Review
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    Agricultural Productivity Impact of a Mini-Dam: A Case Study of Ziarat, Balochistan

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    Water is the most important constituent of life without which, life cannot exist. Water is a natural resource which is also used as an input for producing different goods in factories for industrial use, productivity of crops for agriculture use also used in our daily life for domestic purpose. Despite such an importance, still the World is experiencing the issue of water scarcity [WCD (2000)]. The supply of water does not meet its demand [Bengali (2009)]. Pakistan is an agrarian economy which is also heavily dependent on water. About 45 percent of the total employment is generated from Agriculture sector [Pakistan (2011)]. Main sources of water are rivers and rainfall. Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan. Land size is 44 percent of the total land of Pakistan [Balochistan (2010)]. Land is fertile and provides conducive environment for Agriculture. Agriculture productivity is high in Balochistan. Many vegetables and crops are grown which results in many farmers and labours livelihood. It has got varieties of species of many fruits, particularly Apple. Important fruit crops grown are Apple, Grapes, Cherry and Peach. Climate is also suitable for crops growth particularly the deciduous fruits like apple, which requires low temperature during summer season. As far as quality is concerned, apple produced in Balochistan, especially at high altitude (1600 meters to 2000 meters) are superior in quality than that produced in the rest of the country. The main reason is that due to dryness of the climate in apple producing areas like Ziarat, Killa Abdullah, Pishin, Quetta etc. Apple is one of the most popular fruit. It is delicious and crunchy and is mostly liked by health conscious and fitness lovers as it is filled with rich phyto-nutrients, which is very essential for optimal health. It also contains antioxidants, which promotes health as well as prevents several diseases. Thus, apple truly justifies the famous sayings, “An apple a day keeps the doctor away.” One of the distinguishing features is that there are no fungal diseases and disease free apple can be stored for a longer period in cold storage. Also the abundance of sunshine in the growing season improves the colour of apple which fetches a good price in the domestic and foreign market

    Agricultural Income Taxation: Estimation of the Revenue Potential in Punjab

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    In May 2011 a senator of the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), moved a private member’s constitutional amendment bill to remove the exemption provided to agricultural incomes from federal income taxation. The proposed amendment mentioned a potential revenue of Rs 200 billion from Agricultural Income Tax (AIT). This figure, however, differs widely from some other reported estimates of potential agricultural income tax.1 The issue of AIT is likely to echo again in the parliament and outside as Pakistan grapples with the issue of its low tax revenues. It is, therefore, important to carefully analyse the potential revenue from AIT to allow more informed discussion and policy decisions on tax options at the federal and provincial levels. The 1973 Constitution of Pakistan gives provincial assemblies the exclusive power to make laws pertaining to taxes on agricultural income.2 Agricultural income could be interpreted narrowly to include crop farming and rental income from land, or more broadly to include income from livestock and animal husbandry. There is no ambiguity that income from the narrower interpretation falls within the domain of provincial taxation though there may be room for debate whether the provincial jurisdiction extends to the broader definition of agricultural income or not [see Nasim (2012)]. Since 1996-97 all four provinces have instituted some form of tax on agriculture land or incomes. In its implementation this tax is largely a land tax (based on acreage) rather than a tax on agricultural income

    Economic Reforms in Pakistan: One Step Forward, Two Steps Backwards (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)

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    In 1998 I was invited by Dr Sarfraz Qureshi, the then Director of PIDE to deliver a lecture on “The Political Economy of Reforms: A Case Study of Pakistan”.1 This lecture was subsequently published by PIDE as a monograph. A year later, in December 1999, I had the honour of becoming the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan and actually participated actively in the formulation and implementation of economic reforms. During the six year period of public policy making I realised that my knowledge about the political economy as manifested in my PIDE lecture was incomplete. The narrative was more complex than I had developed as an outsider. Now, six years later after my retirement from the State Bank of Pakistan I again reflected upon this topic as an observer and analyst rather than a participant. I realised that my learnings have become much richer by applying these different prisms—those of an international development economist, a public policy-maker and now an independent analyst. I am grateful to Dr Rashid Amjad and Dr Musleh ud Din and their colleagues at PIDE for providing me this opportunity to share these learning with my colleagues, peers and other scholars present here today. The political economy of economic reforms and structural adjustment has become focus of growing attention in the literature drawing at the inter-disciplinary tools of analysis and cross-country comparative perspectives. Detailed case studies of country situations do throw useful insights which are not captured through cross-country studies. The key question that is explored by this group of researchers is: if policy and institutional reforms are associated with high economic pay offs, then why are these reform programmes not sustained and implemented consistently? Why are they derailed? I would like to focus the discussion on Pakistan only and address the following questions

    Estimating Standard Error of Inflation Rate in Pakistan: A Stochastic Approach

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    “The answer to the question what is the mean of a given set of magnitudes cannot in general be found, unless there is given also the object for the sake of which a mean value is required. There are as many kinds of average as many purposes; and we may almost say in the matter of prices as many purposes as many writers.” Edgeworth (1888). We estimate standard errors (S.Es.) of month on month and year on year inflation in Pakistan based on data for the period of July 2001 to June 2010 using the stochastic approach as well as extended stochastic approach to index numbers. We develop a mechanism to estimate S.E. of period average headline inflation (rate) using these approaches. This mechanism is then applied to estimate S.Es. of 12-month average rate of inflation in Pakistan for July 2003 to June 2010. The systematic changes in the relative prices of different groups in the CPI basket for Pakistan are also estimated. The highest (positive) relative price inflation occurred in ‘food, beverages and tobacco’ group and the lowest (negative) for ‘recreation and entertainment’ group, during fiscal years 2001 to 2010. JEL classification: C13, C43, E31 Keywords: Estimation, Index Numbers, Inflation Rate, Standard Erro

    Poverty Consequences of Globalisation in OIC Countries: A Comparative Analysis

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    Williamson (2002) points out that ‘the world has seen two globalisation booms over the past two centuries and one bust. The first global century ended with World War I and the second started at the end of World War II, while the years in between were ones of anti-global backlash’. In the first period of globalisation, poverty fell from 84 percent in 1820 to 66 percent in 1910. In the second period of globalisation poverty fell from 55 percent in 1950 to 24 percent in 1992. In the inter-war period, the world population living in poverty remains probably stagnant. The historical negative relationship between globalisation and poverty masks variations within and between countries in their experiences with globalisation. Many decades of increasing globalisation have not yet silenced the debate over the benefits of globalisation. The fierce street protests surrounding the ministerial meeting of the WTO and similar protests at the World Bank and the IMF show that anti-globalisation debate is getting strong

    Consumption Patterns of Male and Female Headed Households in Pakistan: Evidence from PSLM 2007-08

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    Recent years have witnessed growing interest in analysing the welfare outcomes of female headed households (FHHs) in the developing world. The theoretical argument for examining female headship and family welfare is underpinned by two important considerations. The first concerns households’ access to resources, while the second pertains to control over the allocation of resources within the household [DeGraff and Bilsborrow (1993)]. A priori female headed households are expected to have access to a lower level of resources than the conventional male-headed households for a variety of reasons.1 However, this lower resource envelop experienced by female headed households may be partially offset by the way resources are allocated within such households. Several studies have revealed that resources under the control of women are more likely to be allocated for productive purposes that promote family welfare as compared to resource allocation under the control of men. In the context of Pakistan, the present paper aims to explore how resource allocation within female headed households differs from male headed households by examining the consumption patterns of both female and male headed households in the country

    Life Satisfaction and Basic Needs among Elderly People in Pakistan: Evidence from the PSES Data

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    As an outcome of demographic transition the composition of the world’s population has changed. In turn percent share of population above 60 years of age will be doubled from 11 percent in 2010 to 22 percent in 2050 worldwide [United Nations (2011)]. Those countries which encountered demographic transition early are now facing the problem of ageing societies. In developing countries, demographic transition started late, and they have not yet encountered the problem of a large proportion of elderly in the population. However, in the coming years with the high proportion of elderly, these countries will also have to face the problems with their poor economic situation and burden of diseases. Therefore it will be a difficult task for developing countries to combat the problem of the large proportion of elderly in the population in the coming years if concrete steps have not been taken at this time. Pakistan, where demographic transition started in the 90’s, has almost six percent (more than nine million) of the population above 60 years of age in the year 2005, and it will rise to 16.5 percent (48 million) in the year 2050. If we look at the ageing index, which is the number of persons 60 years of age or above per hundred persons below 15 years of age, the value was 15.9 in 2005. It will rise to 29 in 2025 and further to 75.5 in the year 2050 due to decline in fertility and steady increase in life expectancy. The old-age dependency ratio has also increased from seven in 2005 to nine in 2025 and will reach 16 in the year 2050 [UN (2006)]

    Emerging Issues in the Implementation of Irrigation and Drainage Sector Reforms in Sindh, Pakistan

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    Ever increasing demand for food, electricity and domestic water use due to rapid growth in population has remained a key challenge for Pakistan since the 1950s. The country has invested heavily in water engineering projects to establish the world’s largest gravity-driven irrigation network on the Indus [Bandaragoda (2006); Bengali (2009)]. Besides fulfilling a significant proportion of the country’s energy demand from hydro-power installations, the system irrigates about 14 million hectares of farmlands and supports agriculture sector to contribute about 21 percent of the GDP, 60 percent of the exports and 45 percent of the labour force [Bhutta (2006); Pakistan (2012)]. Amidst its development, the elaborated irrigation facility has left a deep footprint on productivity and environment of the basin itself in the form of the rising levels of water-logging and salinity and the degradation of deltaic ecology [Briscoe and Qamar (2009); Memon and Thapa (2011)]. By the 1960s, every year about 40,000 hectares of fertile farmlands were turning into wastelands because of water-logging and salinity in the basin [Bhutta (2006); Mulk (2009); Qureshi, et al. (2008)]. Therefore, the country had no option but to develop a remedial drainage network of thousands of kilometres of drains and numerous tube wells parallel to the existing irrigation infrastructure

    Remittances from Saudi Arabia: A Community Phenomenon

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    Remittances are increasingly becoming an essential source of foreign exchange in developing countries, in some cases, even more than official development assistance. Recent estimates from the World Bank indicate that global remittances are expected to exceed 590billion,withalmost75percentoftheseremittancesflowingtothedevelopingcountries.Pakistanbecamethefifthlargestremittancerecipientnationinthedevelopingworldin2011,1registeringastronggrowthof25.8percent,relativetoa10.1percentgrowthinremittancestoSouthAsia.AccordingtoanIMFresearchpaper,workersremittancescontributealmost4percenttothecountrysGDP,andareequivalenttoalmost22percentofannualexportsofgoodsandservices.2RemittancestoPakistanhaveshownastrongrisingtrend;frombeinglessthan590 billion, with almost 75 percent of these remittances flowing to the developing countries. Pakistan became the fifth largest remittance-recipient nation in the developing world in 2011,1 registering a strong growth of 25.8 percent, relative to a 10.1 percent growth in remittances to South Asia. According to an IMF research paper, workers’ remittances contribute almost 4 percent to the country’s GDP, and are equivalent to almost 22 percent of annual exports of goods and services.2 Remittances to Pakistan have shown a strong rising trend; from being less than 2 billion dollars in 1997 to reaching almost 10billionin2010.Infact,thetotalremittancessenthomebyoverseasPakistaniworkershavemorethanquadrupledinthelasteightyearstomorethan10 billion in 2010. In fact, the total remittances sent home by overseas Pakistani workers have more than quadrupled in the last eight years to more than 13.186 billion,3 the highest-ever amount received in a year by the country in the last fiscal year, which ended in June 2012. Interestingly, the almost 1.5 million Pakistani expatriates residing in Saudi Arabia send more remittances to Pakistan than from expatriates working and residing in other countrie

    Learning versus Working; Factors Affecting Adolescent Time Allocation in Pakistan

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    This paper explores how family, school and community factors influence adolescents’ time allocation among market work, domestic work, learning and leisure. We model adolescents’ time use in a multivariate framework, using explanatory variables characterising the household as well as labour demand, school access and school quality at the district level. This research shows that the amount of time children spend working, whether at home or in the market, is strongly correlated with household poverty, as proxied by an asset index. Consistent with the literature on the predictors of school enrolments of adolescents, the time spent on learning is also significantly lower among the poor. In Pakistan the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) census poverty score database, which includes information on household assets, would be a very promising tool to target efforts to increase children’s time allocated to learning. JEL classification: D60, I24, I30 Keywords: Pakistan, Education, Child Labour

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