The Pakistan Development Review
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Spatial Differences and Socioeconomic Determinants of Health Poverty
Full text linkThe study aims to develop health poverty index (HPI) using the
Alkire Foster (AF) Method for Pakistan based on district representative
data obtained from Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement
(PSLM) 2012-13. Using HPI, this study investigates the spatial
differences of health poverty at sub-national level and explores the
socioeconomic determinants. The analysis reveals that the headcount
health poverty is 41 percent in Pakistan. Further, the ratio is very
high in rural areas (50 percent) as compared to urban areas (22
percent). Provincial analysis shows that Punjab is the least poor
province (36 percent) while Balochistan is the poorest province (62
percent). The majority of the households are deprived in term of cost of
health services, post-natal care and child immunisation. Empirical
analysis shows that income, regional variation, education and awareness
play very important role in explaining health poverty. To eradicate
health deprivation, area and dimension specific policies are required to
make efficient use of scarce resources. JEL Classification: I12, I32,
J18 Keywords: Health Poverty, Spatial Analysis, Alkire Foster
Metho
Fiscal Consolidation and Economic Growth: Insights from the Case of Pakistan
Full text linkThe primary objective of this paper is to find whether fiscal
consolidation has positive impact on economic growth in Pakistan or not,
using nonlinear specification. In addition to checking nonlinear
relationship between fiscal deficit and economic growth, we also compute
optimal level of fiscal deficit that enhances growth, using data from
1976 to 2015. The results show that at the current level, fiscal deficit
is positively associated with economic growth but fiscal deficit at a
very high level would be damaging for growth. The nonlinear association
between fiscal deficit and economic growth suggests that Pakistan would
need to keep fiscal deficit in check and keep on practicing fiscal
prudence. The analysis of data reveals that although the fiscal deficit
has come down over the years, capital, or development, expenditures have
also come down. According to the calculations in this paper, the optimal
level of fiscal deficit is 0.74 percent of GDP, implying that Pakistan’s
expenditure composition and tax structure needs to be revisited to
achieve higher economic growth. JEL Classifications: 2SLS Keywords:
Economic Growth, Fiscal Consolidatio
Strategic Change in Operating Trends of Public Listed Companies and Its Impact on StockMarket Growth
Full text linkThe primary concern of the present study is to examine the
impact of cross-listing on the stock market growth. The theoretical
framework for the research was developed by taking the members of the
World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) as statistical frame. For analysis
and statistical calculations in the study a Structural Equation
Modelling (SEM) technique is used. The results suggest a significant and
positive impact of cross-listing on stock market growth indicators
except on the value of share trading. The study concludes that
cross-listing is fruitful for stock market growth of host stock
exchanges. It recommends that host countries should create conducive
environment for offshore listing. Keywords: Cross-listing, Domestic
Listing, Market Capitalisation, Equity Shares and Stock Inde
Sung-Hee Jwa. A General Theory of Economic Development—Towards a Capitalist Manifesto. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing. 2017. x+215 pages. Price UK £ 67.50 (Hardback).
Full text linkA General Theory of Economic Development is yet another
attempt to demystify the underlining causes of underdevelopment and
economic stagnation, and to offer a theory of economic development,
which has proved to be an elusive quest for most of the world economies.
Apart from a handful of developed economies, most of the other world
economies are merely also-rans in the quest for economic development. In
fact, even those economies that have been growing at respectable rates
over the last decade or two, such as China, cannot yet claim to be
developed countries. It is in this backdrop that Sung-Hee Jwa has
written this book that offers a theory of economic development. It is a
daring attempt as it departs from the standard growth models and
development theories and challenges the conventional wisdom. The theory
put forth in the book, according to the author, is not only applicable
to the developing, or underdeveloped, countries, but is equally
applicable to the developed countries, hence meriting the word ‘general’
in the title
Parental Effects on Primary School Enrolment under Different Types of Household Headship: Evidence from Pakistan
Full text linkPrevious studies in Pakistan have established the number of
pupil, parents, household, and community characteristics as determinants
of primary school enrolment. However, treatment of the role of the
household power structure in these studies is limited to the inclusion
of a single dummy variable for female headship. Present study estimates
separate probit regressions for different types of headships, hence
allowing for an analysis of the power structure of the household and its
impact on other explanatory variables. In addition to confirming the
findings of previous studies, this study concludes that mother‘s
headship results in greater positive influence of her own education and
the economic status of the household on child‘s primary school
enrolment. Father‘s headship in this regard has only limited influence.
JEL Classification: C25, J16, I21 Keywords: Probit Models, School
Enrolment, Gender Issue
The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time
Full text linkMost research on monetary policy assumes availability of
information regarding the current state of economy, at the time of the
policy decision. A key challenge for policy-makers is to find indicators
that give a clear and precise signal of the state of the economy in real
time—that is, when policy decisions are actually taken. One of the
indicators used to asses the economic condition is the output gap; and
the estimates of output gap from real time data misrepresents the true
state of economy. So the policy decisions taken on the basis of real
time noisy data are proved wrong when true data become available. Within
this context we find evidence of wrong estimates of output gap in real
time data. This is done by comparing estimates of output gap based on
real time data with that in the revised data. The quasi real time data
are also constructed such that the difference between estimates of
output gap from real time data and that from quasi real time data
reflects data revision and the difference between estimates of output
gap from final data and that from quasi real time data portray other
revisions including end sample bias. Moreover, output gap is estimated
with the help of five methods namely the linear trend method, quadratic
trend method, Hordrick-Prescott (HP) filter, production function method,
and structural vector autoregressive method. Results indicate that the
estimates of output gap in real time data are different from what have
been found in final data but other revisions, compared to data
revisions, are found more significant. Moreover, the output gap measured
using all the methods, except the linear trend method, appropriately
portray the state of economy in the historical context. It is also found
that recessions can be better predicted by real time data instead of
revised data, and final data show more intensity of recession compared
with what has been shown in real time data. JEL Classification: E320
Keywords: Data Uncertainty, Measurement Uncertainty, Output Gap,
Business Cycle, Economic Activit
Impact of Climate Change on Crops’ Productivity across Selected Agro-ecological Zones in Pakistan
Full text linkThis study estimates the impact of major climate variables
(temperature and rainfall) on crops’ productivity across four
agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. The crops selected were rice, wheat,
maize, cotton and sugarcane. The study used panel data from 1991 to 2010
and applied panel least square techniques. The results revealed that the
effect of climatic variables on crops yield varied across agro climatic
zone due to differences in their climate conditions. Temperature and
rainfall were the important determinants affecting crops productivity
across agro climatic zones of Pakistan. Wheat productivity has been
impacted more in Northern Irrigated Plain-a by average temperature and
in Northern Dry Mountains by rainfall than the other zones. Rice
productivity has been impacted more in Dry Mountains by average
temperature and in the Indus Delta by rainfall than other zones.
Sugarcane productivity has been impacted more by average temperature and
rainfall in Indus Delta than zone IV. Maize productivity has been
impacted more by average temperature and rainfall in Northern Dry
Mountains than other zones. Finally the study recommends proper
mitigative and adaptative strategies to enhance the positive and lessen
the adverse impact of climate change on crops productivity across agro
climatic zones of Pakistan. JEL Classifications: Q15, Q54, Q57 Keywords:
Climate Change, Agro-ecological Zones, Rainfall, Temperature,
Productivit
Land Use Conflicts in the Developing Countries: Proximate Driving Forces and Preventive Measures
Full text linkThis research aims to analyse land use conflicts mainly caused
by infrastructural development projects in the developing countries. For
this purpose, qualitative data is gathered which is frequently published
on land use conflicts against the development related infrastructure
projects in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan. It identifies
and defines land use conflicts, their dynamic features and
contestations. The results reveal as to how the conflicts have been
germinated by the property and human right violators? Further, it also
focuses on the governance roles and responsibilities, the institutional
inconsistency towards justice, and the local population’s mistrust in
the respective case study areas. The analysis concludes with an overview
of the root causes and consequences of land use conflicts, by indicating
as to how land use decisions for infrastructural settings have changed
rural economy, and induced local population to displace and oppose the
projects. Finally, the study proposes some preventive measures to manage
such conflicts. JEL Classification: D74, O16, H54 Keywords: Conflict,
Proximity Relations, Infrastructure, Developing Countrie