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The impact of political instability on exchange rates in South Africa: an econometric modelling
Get PDFThe exchange rate and political instability are crucial macroeconomic variables strongly related to every economy. In South Africa, exchange rate fluctuations are widely related to major political events. The study analyses the fluctuations in exchange rates by applying exchange rate data over the period 1989 to 2020. The current study, used the predictive quantitative design that combines correlational analysis with predictive modelling. The Unit root results show that political instability and exchange rate are stationary at first difference, and inflation, GDP, political instability, the rule of law, and corruption control and corruption freedom are stationary at level. The Vector Auto Regression model (VAR) was applied to examine the short-run relationship between political instability exchange rate, GDP, inflation, real interest rate, corruption and the rule of law. The results show a short-run relationship between political instability, exchange rate, GDP, inflation, real interest rate, corruption and rule of law. Johansen Cointegration testing was also performed to establish cointegration between variables. The results from the Johansen tests suggest that the model presents a cointegration between political instability, GDP, inflation, real interest rate, corruption and the rule of law and exchange rate, implying that these variables are related and can be combined linearly. The VECM was performed to establish a long-run relationship between variables since cointegration was established between variables. The Vector Error Correction (VEC) model complemented these findings resulting in the null hypothesis that states there is no long-run relationship between variables being rejected. The alternative hypothesis that there is a long-run relationship between variables was accepted. The Granger Causality test was performed to examine the causality between variables and to examine the drivers and causes of exchange rate fluctuations in the VAR model. The results revealed that political instability does not Granger cause exchange rate fluctuations in the short run and that there is a negative relationship between political instability and exchange rate fluctuations. The short-run results revealed that the exchange rate does not Granger cause political instability. However, the exchange rate Granger causes the country's political instability in the long run. This study’s literature review found that political instability harms exchange rates and the economy, and its impact can be felt globally. The results of the study show that there is a negative relationship between political instability and exchange rates. In the short run, the results show that political instability Granger causes inflation. The impulse response function (IRF) was conducted to determine the shock of political instability on the exchange rate. The findings indicate that the magnitude of the shock refers to one standard deviation. The results show that after two years, 92% of the shock in exchange rates is due to the shock on the exchange rate itself, and only 0.12% is due to political instability in the short run. This means that the shock on the exchange rate is associated with the exchange rate itself. The result is consistent with empirical findings in South Africa that fluctuations, in the long run, are largely caused by political instability from corruption. The exchange rate results and the political instability response were used to calibrate the long-run response to exchange rate fluctuation. Political instability was also used to assess the nexus between political instability and economic growth. The results determine a positive relationship between political instability and economic growth. The IRF was performed to track the impact of a variable on other variables (that is, the exchange rate on political instability, GDP, corruption, inflation, real interest rate, the rule of law, and corruption) in the system from several periods in the future. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for forecasting was selected because it provides an accurate forecast and satisfies the criteria for an ideal model. The results show that in the future, not much variation can be expected in the long run, meaning that political instability is projected to stabilise from 2021 to 2040, and the exchange rate will increase. The results from the analysis of exchange rates and political instability confirm the existence of a negative relationship between political instability and exchange rates. The findings of the study point to a need for the South African government to immediately respond to an increase in exchange rates and to stabilise the undercurrents caused by macroeconomic shocks. The study will contribute to the theoretical understanding of fluctuations in exchange rates and the formulation of macroeconomic stabilisation.Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, School of Economics, Development and Tourism , 202
Utilising the participatory action learning and action research approach in developing school improvement plans in community schools
Get PDFThis study sought to determine how Participatory Action Learning and Action Research (PALAR) can be used to develop school improvement plans in community schools. The study looks at the Centre for the Community Schools whose objective is to collaboratively develop alternative approaches to school improvement that are relevant and responsive to the realities of under-served community schools. CCS used a PALAR approach in their engagements with multiple stakeholders to develop school improvements, and this study sought to investigate the experience of those multiple stakeholders. Those multiple stakeholders are participants in this study and together we formed an Action Learning Set (ALS). The lessons we learned from their perceptions of the PALAR approach, and the contextual factors that must be considered when using PALAR, led us to draft guidelines that support the use of PALAR when developing school improvement plans in community schools. A literature review was conducted on the main concepts of this study starting on a historical perspective of schools in Europe, the United States of America, and South Africa. This historical perspective gave an international point of view on the thinking of schooling internationally. This international account on the history of schooling was followed by a South African explanation on our history of schooling, looking at education in the apartheid era and education post-apartheid era. This was important in understanding how the concept of school improvement plans came about in South Africa. The literature review also highlighted the importance of school improvement plans and shed light on what a community school is, and what it is not. The study made use of PALAR as a methodology and is located in the Critical paradigm. The research approach was a Critical Participatory Action Research approach, and the study was framed with a combination of the critical pedagogy and the Cultural-Historical Activity Theory. The study made use of Participatory Visual Methods as tools to generate data , in particular, drawings, collages and cellphilms. To analyse the data, we used a thematic analysis and the nominal group technique. The findings of the study reveal that the PALAR approach is an empowering approach that acknowledges diversity and fosters meaningful relationships. The findings also showed that this approach is time consuming, messy and lacks structure. Further to this, the findings of this study suggest that language, coherency, and culture are important factors to consider when making use of the PALAR approach. This study used an African calabash to present a framework on how the PALAR approach can be applied in the African context. Finally, the study proposes guidelines that can be used to develop school improvement plans in community schools and how those guidelines can be used in the African context using the acronym SERV (Situatedness, Empowerment, Roles, and Vulnerability).Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Education, School of Initial Teacher Education, 202
A feminist critical discourse analysis of male dominance and violence in Zakes Mda’s the Madonna of excelsior and Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s purple hibiscus
Get PDFThis study critically explored male dominance and violence in Africa, through the lens of South African author, Zakes Mda, and Nigerian author, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, in their novels, The Madonna of Excelsior (2004) and Purple Hibiscus (2003), respectively. Women globally often continue to live with male dominance, and this unequal gender structure has propelled feminists to commence movements to counter all forms of discrimination against women. For the study, excerpts from the two novels were used as data, to investigate male dominance and violence in Africa. To achieve the goals of this research, the study used socialist feminist theory, post-colonial feminist theory, and black feminist theory as the theoretical framework. This combined framework explicates that there is not just one system of oppression at the core of unequal treatment of women by men. Rather, it is a combination of structures related to social class, gender, race, sexuality, culture and society. Feminist critical discourse analysis (FCDA) was employed to analyse the data with the aid of ATLAS.ti software. FCDA was selected as an analytical framework because of its concern for the emancipation of women and social justice with transformation.What prompted the area of concern and the research problem of this study was an awareness of the extensive gender inequality in Nigeria and South Africa, which tends to be rooted in male dominance and violence. As a result, this study contributes to creating awareness of gender inequality, suggesting ways of combating violence against women and female suppression as well as promoting new conceptualisations of masculinity, femininity, and inequality. This research study explored how language use constructed identity, gender, and power relations and how these have reflected male dominance, and violence in Africa in the novels chosen for this study. This study is significant because it did not only analysed the marginalisation and suppression of the female gender but further exposed the strategies that were adopted by women to confront patriarchal oppression and domination as well as the resultant effect on the perpetrators as depicted in the novels for this study. The distinctiveness of this study can be viewed from three different perspectives. Firstly, it is one of the first research works to use FCDA to address the social problems of male dominance and violence. Secondly, it is the first research work which recognises the use of the novel as an essential source of data for FCDA on male dominance and violence. Using the novel as a data source supports the fact that novels are relevant data sources because 5 they often reflect the happenings in society, such as the incidence of gender inequality. Lastly, this project is distinctive because of its ability to combine socialist feminist theory, black feminist theory, post-colonial feminist theory as the theoretical framework and FCDA as the methodological approach. The study is limited to two novels from two African writers because the novels are reflections of the challenges faced by women in Africa and because of the novelists’ unique use of language and the representation of male dominance, violence and female suppression in Africa. The choice to restrict the scope of the study to Africa, selecting Nigeria and South Africa was because, both novels are set in African context and also as a result of the gravity of the identified social and equity issues in Africa. For further research, the study could be extended beyond the African continent to other continents. By so doing, other feminist theories could be used while FCDA could still be used as an analytical framework. Furthermore, a comparative analysis of male dominance and violence between South Africa and Nigeria could also be explored or between Africa and the western world. This study, therefore, explored how language use constructed gender identity and how this reflected male dominance and violence in Africa through the novels, which provided the data for analysis. Following the principles of FCDA, the study sought to create social awareness and to build an understanding of the need not only to resist male dominance and violence but to extend understandings of gender differences with the intention of generating a collective change and transformation in society for gender equality.Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Humanities, 202
Assessing the effectiveness of smart solutions on potable water in rural areas within Ngqushwa local municipality
Get PDFProviding potable water is a critical reposition towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, to ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. In addition, the use of smart solutions facilitates towards guaranteeing smart cities aligned with SDG11 which is aimed at making cities and human settlements inclusive, secure, resilient and viable. Access to potable water is a challenging issue in most rural areas as these areas were affected by the Apartheid regime where services were distributed according to the colour of the skin. In rural areas where many black people reside, the challenge of service delivery still exists. Ngqushwa Municipality is faced with several trials in the management of water, including water scarcity, lack of water infrastructure as well as illegal water connections. Despite more than 25 years of democracy, rural dwellers in Ngqushwa Municipality still suffer from a deficiency of access to potable water, which results in other health problems, such as Cholera. This study was aimed at assessing the role of smart solutions in the effective management of potable water in rural areas in Ngqushwa Local Municipality. The objectives to be achieved include identification of the policies that support the implementation of smart solutions in the provision of potable water in Ngqushwa Local Municipality, as well as determining the opportunities and challenges associated with smart solutions in the delivery of potable water. Moreover, identifying the existing difficulties affecting the execution of smart solutions in the delivery of potable water, along with developing recommendations on how smart solutions can effectively be put into operation in rural areas to control water. A qualitative research approach was applied as the chosen research methodology most appropriate to achieving the objectives of the research study. Data was collected using secondary sources and was analysed using thematic content analysis. The study revealed that opportunities available include accurate billing, smart metering and information availability. Furthermore, the obstacles included capacity constraints, cost factors and resistance to change. The investigation recommended, inter alia, that the municipality should accurately train its employees on matters relating to change management and establish effective debt controlling mechanisms to enhance water supervision in rural areas.Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Humanities, 202
Isadora duncan: An instrumental case study
Get PDFThe study is an instrumental case study of Isadora Duncan (1877 - 1927). She was a pioneer of modern dance as she developed her unique style of dance that was free-flowing and natural. She further developed her own dance philosophy, which drew the attention of many as its archetypal dancer was a woman who embodied a space that was equal and free. She was not only revolutionary in her unique dance style but also for her strong beliefs. Isadora Duncan believed in anti-marriage, bearing children out of wedlock, and fighting for the emancipation of women where she used dance, her philosophy and post-performance lectures to communicate her thoughts and beliefs. An Instrumental case study is a qualitative method of enquiry, which entails researching an event or individual as a means of providing or gaining insight into a particular phenomenon. Similar to that of a psychobiography, the individual subject can be explored through the lens of a psychological theory for the purpose of creating a coherent psychological case study. The psychoanalytical lens of Carl Jung was used to explore and describe certain aspects of the life and work of Isadora Duncan. The subfield of the Psychology of Women provides a contextual description for the challenges that women faced in the past and in the present, and additionally presents the primary aim of the proposed study. Isadora Duncan was chosen due to her unique dance movement, both literally and figuratively as she developed her ability in giving voice to those emotions that women often kept hidden. She lived during significant times which included radical transformations that brought about noticeable change politically, socially, and culturally. Despite the reformative motions, it did not dismiss its own challenges especially for women. Women faced a constant struggle for freedom from oppression, community rights and gender equality, and Isadora Duncan was no exception to these challenges. Extensive biographical information data was collected and processed into salient features. The study integrates the theory of Carl Jung, the life and dance philosophy of Isadora Duncan and the v challenges faced by women over the centuries and demonstrates the value of using an instrumental case study as a method of inquiry into the exploration of a unique individual. The Psychology of Women provides an understanding of how those past challenges may still be modern-day concerns for the psychology of women today. The findings of the study demonstrated that Isadora Duncan was a unique and innovate women who pushed the boundaries socially. She was determined to perform her unique dance style in times that required women to conform to the cultural expectations. However, in times of trouble and despair, she was able to turn to dance as the individual and collective voice. The contribution of the study rests with its demonstration of the value of a holistic and reflexive exploration of a unique individual woman. It demonstrates the value and application of Jung’s in-depth theoretical understanding of the archetypes in human behaviour and the use of dance as a healing process for psychologically wounded women. Therefore, specific reference to the true inner voice of women allows insight into how clinicians might assist female clients who struggle to release their true inner voice. Furthermore, the study contributes to building knowledge of the challenges that women face in society and allows for future research of exploring integrative theoretical frameworks in understanding the healing of psychologically fragmented women in the 21st century.Thesis (Ma) -- Faculty of Health Science, 202
A qualitative review on the manner in which psychologists address language barriers in psychological testing with isiXhosa speaking clients.
Get PDFA racially segregated culture historically influenced the growth of psychological testing and evaluation in South Africa. Thus, South Africa's multicultural and multilingual community poses difficulties for psychologists in their daily work. Most of the psychological tests used by psychologists are predominantly normed in either or only English/Afrikaans. Given the economic and professional resources required to develop new standardised tests for the broader South African population, the current status quo is set to continue for the foreseeable future. Consequently, language barriers pose a challenge when psychometric standardised tests are administered in a language that is different from that of the client, and as a result, psychologists must develop ways to enhance the fairness of these measures for their client base. The avenue of research that was explored is how psychologists overcome the language boundary when assessing clients who speak an indigenous first language, particularly isiXhosa. As such, this study explored this question through qualitative methods. Through purposive sampling, nine psychologists were invited to share their practical expertise on this topic, using semi-structured online interviews. The findings of this study suggested several core themes providing useful methods for other psychologists facing the same challenge, including the challenges with administering psychological tests with isiXhosa clients, the availability of standardised tests in the South African context, and the importance of determining the client’s language proficiency. Five themes with several sub-themes emerged from the study. The study contributes to the currently limited existing body of knowledge, and subsequently to the research area that this study explores - thus further providing guidelines that practitioners can employ when working with clients who are isiXhosa speaking.Thesis (Ma) -- Faculty of Health Science, 202
Spatial patterns of human-elephant conflict and elephant space-use in Liwonde National Park, Malawi
Get PDFHuman-wildlife conflict (HWC) is a prevailing issue worldwide, threatening the livelihood of the affected human communities, and the persistence of wildlife populations and habitat. Human-elephant conflict (HEC) is particularly challenging, given the damage or harm these large animals can cause to human communities. Moreover, HEC threatens the safety of elephant populations as elephants can be injured or killed when people retaliate. Several studies have therefore been conducted to investigate HEC spatiotemporal patterns in order to better understand it and to develop mitigation measures. These studies predominantly used non-spatial statistics or global regressions to investigate HEC patterns and drivers. The general understanding of HEC patterns and drivers are therefore based on general predictions derived from global regressions that assume stationarity of the relationship between HEC and its drivers across the landscape. Previous studies using global regressions may therefore have missed or misidentified important drivers of the spatial patterns, making the resultant global regression models misleading. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of HEC adjacent to Liwonde National Park using spatial analytical tools that account for the spatial nature of the data and the spatial variation in conflict drivers across a landscape. Using a Geographically Weighted Regression, I identified vegetation quality, season, and distance to seasonal water as drivers of HEC hotspots adjacent to Liwonde. HEC was more intense in areas with higher quality vegetation (compared to vegetation quality inside the Park) and areas that were closer to seasonal water. The relationship between HEC hotspots and these drivers varied at the patch-level and according to season. My findings suggest that HEC is more complex than the general patterns described with global regressions. The localized patterns and drivers of HEC hotspots identified, reflect trade-off between elephants securing rewards (crops), while reducing risks (encountering humans), as expected under forage optimality models. The understanding of elephant adaptation and trade-offs in human landscapes gained from my study, along with the approach I have adopted, can be applied to other HEC study sites, and help guide HEC management in Liwonde. This approach can also be applied to analysis of other forms of HWC, greatly improving HWC mitigation.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, School of Natural Resource Management, 202
Investigating the interannual variability of the Benguela coastal upwelling system using a ROMS numerical model from 1993-2014
Get PDFThe seasonal and interannual variability of the coastal Benguela upwelling system is described using 22 years (September 1993 - December 2014) of a regional Ocean model (ROMS) output. The model-derived SSTs are evaluated against satellite SSTs (GHRSST) and biases between the datasets investigated, allowing for confidence in using the ROMS data to investigate details of spatial and temporal variability over the Benguela System. Variability of coastal SSTs are investigated together with alongshore winds (from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis product). The driver of the seasonality in upwelling in the Benguela region is the seasonal shift of the South Atlantic High pressure system, leading to an enhanced seasonal signal in the southern Benguela (with strongest upwelling favourable winds in austral spring and summer). In the northern Benguela, the seasonal signal reduces with the peak of upwelling favourable winds shifting to late winter and spring. Interannual variability is evident in the model and is investigated with respect to various modes of climate variability. Though the direct relationship of the Benguela upwelling system to large-scale climate modes such as SAM and ENSO is not clear in most places, some evidence was found for their connection. For instance, in the southernmost cell of the southern Benguela a significant positive and negative correlation exists between SST and wind respectively with ENSO during summer months. This relates to increased (decreased) winds and decreased (increased) SST during La Niña (El Niño) events. Although there was no direct correlation with either SST or alongshore wind anywhere in the Benguela system, there was some indication of its importance. A trend toward a positive SAM (i.e a more poleward position of the South Atlantic High-Pressure system) was consistent with a trend toward enhanced winds and reduced SSTs in the southernmost upwelling cell. In addition to this, there was evidence to suggest that when SAM and ENSO are out-of-phase, which occurred primarily during summer months, the wind and SST response is amplified. This seemed to be particularly true in the first 10 years of the timeseries when the anomalies were strongly alternating.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, School of Environmental Sciences, 202
Factors that influence the success of total quality management (TGM) practices in a South African (SA) automotive organisation
Get PDFThe South African automotive industry is a key driver of the economy and industrialisation of the country. The Covid-19 pandemic has had adverse effects on many industries globally. In the automotive industry, Covid-19 affected the supply chain resulting in a shortage of semi-conductors, which are essential in the microchips used in the vehicle assembly process. The delays in supply resulted in decreased production volumes and thus a decline in sales which has had an adverse effect on the economic growth of the industry. Therefore, the automotive industry must be sustainable and agile to be competitive globally. This study aimed to focus on total quality management (TQM) practices as a tool for competitive advantage. TQM is significant for sustainability, business continuity and competitive advantage. The study highlights the relevance of TQM practices in the global automotive industry and in South Africa where the study was performed. The organisations at the base of the study are multinational original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that manufacture passenger vehicles for both local and export markets. This quantitative study investigated the relationship between leadership support, quality culture, education and training, structure and resources, and strategic quality plan as the independent variables and TQM practices as the dependent variable. A closed-ended online survey with 70 respondents was employed to collect the data from the OEMs. The findings are that there is a positive and significant correlation between the variables. Leadership support, quality culture and strategic quality planning have more influence on the success of TQM practices. Education and training, and structure and resources have a moderate influence on TQM practices. Managers in quality assurance and production in automotive organisations need to prioritise leadership support, quality culture and strategic quality planning for TQM practices to succeed.Thesis (MA) -- Faculty of Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, 202
The legislation regulation of consensual sexual acts by 16 and 17 years
Get PDFThe Criminal Law (Sexual Offences and Related Matters) Amendment Act 32 of 2007 (“SORMA”), was promulgated to consolidate the laws relating to sexual offences in South Africa. One of the most important aspects of SORMA was that it made provision for the prosecution of those who engaged in sexual acts with minor children. However, SORMA had a major drawback in that it not only criminalised consensual sexual acts with children by adults, but also criminalised consensual sexual acts between children themselves. Thus, children could be prosecuted for engaging in consensual sexual conduct with each other. Stemming from this peculiar position, the provisions of section 15 (statutory rape) and section 16 (statutory sexual assault), insofar as they related to the prosecution of adolescents for engaging in consensual sexual acts with each other, was constitutionally challenged by various human rights organisations. The Constitutional Court in Teddy Bear Clinic v Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development 2014 (2) SA (CC) found that the provisions of section 15 and 16 of SORMA were unconstitutional insofar as they criminalised consensual sexual acts between adolescents older than 12 but younger than 16. The original version of SORMA, for purposes of sections 15 and 16, defined a child as a person under the age of 16 years. Only children younger than 16 years received protection under SORMA. The provisions of sections 15 and 16 of SORMA were the subject of a constitutional challenge in Teddy Bear Clinic. However, the position of 16 and 17 year old children was not dealt with, as it did not form part of the issues that had to be decided by the court. Subsequent to the Teddy Bear Clinic judgment, SORMA was amended, and the amended version defined a child as a person younger than 18 years. Despite this, 16 and 17 year old children did not fall within the ambit of protection provided by SORMA. They were still exposed to prosecution for consensual sexual acts with their adolescent counterparts. Moreover, they were not protected against adult sexual predators who prey on young children. Effectively, SORMA provided some degree of protection, but such protection is not sufficient, and it is contrary to the best interests of the child principle. vi Thus, this research project seeks to highlight, assess and criticise the failure of SORMA to provide adequate legislative protection to 16 and 17 year old children. They still face the possibility of prosecution for consensual sexual acts with other adolescent children, and, they are not offered any protection from adult sexual predators. This position is unacceptable as it is contrary to the spirit and purport of the Constitution, specifically the best interests of the child principle, an important international law principle. Article 3 (1) of the Convention on the Rights of the Child provides that in all matters concerning children, the best interests of the child shall be a primary consideration. The African Charter on the Rights and Welfare of the Child provides that in all actions concerning the child, the best interests of the child shall be the primary consideration. Thus, the lack of protection of 16 and 17 year old children under SORMA is not only contrary to the Constitution, but also to a fundamental international law principle.Thesis (LLM) -- Faculty of Law, School of Criminal & Procedural Law, 202