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Evaluation of Curonian Lagoon ice cover changes using satellite and hydrometeorological data
Observations of the ice regime in the Curonian Lagoon are particularly relevant to navigation, fishing and hydrometeorological observations of the water area. Observations of ice regime with synthetic aperture radars (SAR), that have good spatial resolution (10-100 m), provide unique opportunity to clearly identify the limits of ice cover in the studied area of the Curonian Lagoon. The aim of the work is to investigate the ice cover changes in the Curonian Lagoon based on satellite SAR data and hydrometeorological information. The object of the research is the Curonian Lagoon. Investigation period covers two periods in - 2007-2011 and 2015-2019 during, November-April, and the periodo f 1993-2019 for monthly mean air temperatures measured at Nida hydrometeorological station. SAR images derived from Envisat ASAR and Sentinel-1 sensors and hydrometeorological data for daytime air temperature, wind speed and direction were analyzed in order to determine the ice properties. It was found that the early start of the ice season is clearly related to rapid decrease of the air temperature while the length of ice season depends on sum of negative temperatures. Of all ice seasons investigated, over 90% of the Curonian Lagoon area was covered for about 90 days by more than 1425 km2 of ice during the winter of 2009-2010 due to the highest frost sum of -639.6 °C. Analysis of 8 winter seasons revealed, that the direction of ice retreat 11 mostly coincides with the direction of prevailing winds. During the ice melt season, the prevailing winds are westerlies, while in the case of ice cover formation, easterly winds prevail. The longest ice season is recorded near the Nemunas Delta and in the south-eastern Curonian Lagoon influenced by the inflow of freshwater rivers and the continental climate. The shortest duration of ice season is observed near the Klaipėda Strait and the Smiltyne – Juodkrantė section where the ice season is strongly influenced by salty water coming from the sea, deep Klaipėda Strait and intensive shipping. Analysis of SAR capabilities has shown that Sentinel-1 is more suitable for ice monitoring of the Curonian Lagoon because it has higher spatial resolutions, higher observational frequency and the greater number of several polarisation regimes. It should be also mentioned that the most detailed monitoring of the study area also requires in situ data to supplement satellite observations. It is also shown, that SAR data are useful for predicting hazardous ice conditions and prevention of accidents in the Curonian Lagoon
The economic security segment, as part of the national security strategy.
Structure: introduction, four chapters with sub-chapters and conclusions. Chapter one reviews the theoretical aspects of the subject analysis, discussing in a coherent way the concept of national security, the reasons determining the complexity of national security, as well as the economic security and its projections. The second chapter is dedicated to the analysis of the economic security characteristics reflected in the National Security Strategy, comparing the importance of economic security within the context of the National Security Strategy transformation, including the analysis of evolving threats, dangers and risks. The third chapter analyzes economic security issues from the EU perspective in order to identify the economic security related challenges and threats the EU is facing. Within the overall security context, NATO cannot be underestimated. Consequently, the role of NATO mechanisms in ensuring the economic security of the Euro-Atlantic area is analyzed. The final fourth chapter distinguishes and analyzes three types of economic security, which are covered in the Lithuanian National Security Strategy. They are as follows: export and investment diversification, energy security as a factor of economic security, development and competitiveness of the transportation system. The conclusion states that economic security depends on global factors and cannot be continuously controlled by the community or the state. The conclusions also highlights NATO's role in strengthening not only military but also economic sphere of security. The guarantee of economic security is directly related to the attraction of foreign direct investment, while energy security can be singled out as the most important factor of economic security. Looking at the importance attached to the economic security in Lithuania's national security strategy, it can be stated that Lithuania is no exception from the majority of world countries and is perceived as one of the key segments in the national security strategy
Performance evaluations of Gaussian spatial data classifiers based on hybrid actual error rate estimators /
Discrimination and classification of spatial data has been widely mentioned in the scientific literature, but lacks full mathematical treatment and easily available algorithms and software. This paper fills this gap by introducing the method of statistical classification based on Bayes discriminant function (BDF) and by providing original approach for the classifier performance evaluation. Supervised classification of spatial data with response variable modelled by Gaussian random fields (GRF) with continuous or discrete spatial index is studied. Populations are assumed to be with different regression parameters vectors. Classification rule based on BDF with inserted ML estimators of regression and scale parameters is studied. We focus on the derived actual error rate (AER) and the approximation of the expected error rate (AEER) for both types of models. These are used in the construction of hybrid actual error rate estimators that are spatial modifications of widely applicable D and O estimators applied in cases of independent observations. Simulation experiments are used for comparison of proposed AER estimators by the minimum of unconditional mean squared error criterion for both types of GRF models
Perception of Arctic issues among young learners in Poland and Lithuania /
Summary In this work, we show the results from two different types of approaches designed to map the Arctic (Polar) perception of young learners in Poland and Lithuania. The first case study is composed of both closed and open questions (Case Study 1), while the second one is a closed, multiple choice type of questionnaire (Case Study 2). We have questioned a total of 274 learners in Case Study 1 and 80 in Case Study 2. In both cases, learners were divided into four age groups. The results show that the Case Study 1 questionnaire, due to its structure, provided more comprehensive information about the state of awareness among young learners in comparison with the limited option for answers (no open option) in Case Study 2. The results show that documentaries and nature films together are the dominating sources of information for all age groups. A very interesting finding came out from Case Study 1, which shows that school lessons dominate in public schools, with exception to high schools, however, other means of learning were also mentioned. Educational workshops play a very important part in learning among three youngest groups of students of public schools. In case of autonomic schools, it is lessons that play a key role in knowledge transfer at all levels of education, which is most likely related to the educational system in these schools, which regularly conduct group projects. Both studies show that nonformal education has an important role in education of young learners in Poland and Lithuania
Advocacy of non-governmental organizations at the national level.
The objective of master thesis is to analyze the expression of NGO advocacy at the national level in Lithuania, based on a study by non-governmental organizations defending the interests of children with type 1 diabetes. In order to substantiate the defense, the theoretical aspects of advocacy are examined. According to theoretical aspects, NGOs practice advocacy, which is the representation and defense of the public interest in order to influence decision-makers. The impact of NGOs operating at different levels on decision-makers is made by applying the criteria of effective implementation of NGO advocacy: relevance of the problem to interest groups, validity of the proposed solution, activity of advocacy actors, effectiveness of political actions and compliance with the goal. The study found that NGOs representing the interests of children with type 1 diabetes at various levels, but the national level is the most effective. It found that the most important criteria for the implementation of effective advocacy is the relevance of the problem of interest in respect of the proposed reasonableness and advocacy actors activity. The problematic criteria are the effectiveness of political action and the relevance of the goal. On the basis of the criteria analysis, the defense was partially confirmed. The principles of NGOs advocacy are partially applied effectively at the national level. It is confirmed by the ineffective organization of the representation in the central institutions of the interests of NGOs in the Monitoring Council for Diabetes Prevention, Diagnosis and Treatment of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Lithuania and lack of self-assessment of NGO actions
A new network for the advancement of marine biotechnology in Europe and beyond /
Marine organisms produce a vast diversity of metabolites with biological activities useful for humans, e.g., cytotoxic, antioxidant, anti-microbial, insecticidal, herbicidal, anticancer, pro-osteogenic and pro-regenerative, analgesic, anti-inflammatory, anti-coagulant, cholesterol-lowering, nutritional, photoprotective, horticultural or other beneficial properties. These metabolites could help satisfy the increasing demand for alternative sources of nutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, cosmeceuticals, food, feed, and novel bio-based products. In addition, marine biomass itself can serve as the source material for the production of various bulk commodities (e.g., biofuels, bioplastics, biomaterials). The sustainable exploitation of marine bio-resources and the development of biomolecules and polymers are also known as the growing field of marine biotechnology. Up to now, over 35,000 natural products have been characterized from marine organisms, but many more are yet to be uncovered, as the vast diversity of biota in the marine systems remains largely unexplored. Since marine biotechnology is still in its infancy, there is a need to create effective, operational, inclusive, sustainable, transnational and transdisciplinary networks with a serious and ambitious commitment for knowledge transfer, training provision, dissemination of best practices and identification of the emerging technological trends through science communication activities. A collaborative (net)work is today compelling to provide innovative solutions and products that can be commercialized to contribute to the circular bioeconomy. This perspective article highlights the importance of establishing such collaborative frameworks using the example of Ocean4Biotech, an Action within the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) that connects all and any stakeholders with an interest in marine biotechnology in Europe and beyond
Evaluation framework of seaports' competitiveness increasing projects /
The subject of research in this article is evaluation methods of sea-port’s competitiveness increasing investment projects. This paper develops evaluation framework for assessing investment projects through all the stages: since determining the need for investment to post-evaluation of the impact made. In the course of the analysis on the investment projects evaluation models the systematic, comparative and logical analysis of the scientific literature has been em-ployed. The theoretical data processing method has been used to summarize and present conclusions and recommendations. It starts with the hypothesis that project evaluation holistic framework suggested by Zidane could be used for assessment of the competitiveness increasing projects in seaports. The article concluded that analysed holistic framework after its adoption and extension is suitable for evaluation of competitiveness increasing projects. The developed investment project evaluation framework can be used both in private and public seaports. It enables the decision makers to correctly assess the situation, the need for investments, the total amount of the capital needed, the implementation timeframe and project scale in accordance with investment project relevance; determine the payback period, cash flows and social welfare generated by the project, their net present value, IRR and discounted payback period. The model also enables to assess additional factors impacting on investment criteria: the effect of inflation on the cost of capital; working capital requirements; taxation; risk and uncertainty. Ex-post BCA allows learning about the accuracy and efficacy of ex-ante BCA and if the purpose of the project was reached in order to better the evaluation technique for future investment projects
Improvement of survival over time for colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study /
Purpose: In this study, we analyzed the mortality and survival of colorectal cancer patients in Lithuania. Methods: This was a national cohort study. Population-based data from the Lithuanian Cancer Registry and period analyses were collected. Overall, 20,980 colorectal cancer patients were included. We examined the changes in colorectal cancer mortality and survival rates between 1998 and 2012 according to cancer anatomical sub-sites and stages. We calculated the 5-year relative survival estimates using period analysis. Results: Overall, 20,980 colorectal cancer cases reported from 1998 to 2012 were included in the study. The total number of newly diagnosed colorectal cancers increased from 1998–2002 to 2008–2012 by 12.1%. The highest number of colorectal cancers was localized and increased from 33.9% to 42.0%. The number of cancers with regional metastases and advanced cancers decreased by 11.1% and 15.5%, respectively. An increased number of new cases was observed for almost all colon cancer sub-sites. The overall 5-year relative survival rate increased from 37.9% in 1998–2002 to 51.5% in 2008–2012. We showed an increase in survival rates for all stages and all sub-sites. In the most recent period, patients with a localized disease had a 5-year survival rate of 78.6%, while survival estimates for advanced cancer patients remained low at 6.6%. Conclusion: Although survival rates variated in colorectal cancer patients according to disease stages and sub-sites, we showed increased survival rates for all patients
Marine Litter Pollution in Baltic Sea Beaches – Application of the Sand Rake Method /
Most marine litter monitoring methods used on beaches focus on macro-litter (>25 mm) only and show shortcomings regarding smaller litter classes (<25 mm), especially at Baltic Sea beaches. Therefore, we used a sand rake method developed for large micro- (2–5 mm), and meso- (5–25 mm) litter to quantify the overall pollution status of Baltic Sea beaches and to test if the method is useful in terms of the requirements of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Between July 2017 and October 2019, 197 sand rake method surveys were carried out at 35 regions around the Baltic Sea. In total, 9345 litter pieces were found on an area of 10,271 m2 of which 69.9% were 2–25 mm in size. Artificial polymers (4921 litter pieces) were predominant (mean 52.7% ± 13.3). Abundance of litter was 0.91 pieces/m2 ± 1.50 (median 0.40 pieces/m2). The most common litter were industrial pellets (19.8%), non-identifiable plastic pieces 2–25 mm (17.3%), cigarette butts (15.3%), and paraffin (11.9%). At 15 surveys at the German North Sea island of Sylt the litter abundance ranged from 0.45 pieces/m2 (median) to 0.59 pieces/m2 ± 0.37 (mean). Here, 69.2% of the litter was 2–25 mm in size and paraffin was predominant (69.2%). Beaches show a high pollution level with large micro- and meso-litter (2–25 mm) and our data can serve as a Baltic-wide pollution baseline. In contrast to the naked eye OSPAR method for macro-litter, the sand rake method is generally applicable on all sandy beaches, both urban and remote. This method also allows for the provision of a full spatial pollution pattern and can serve for assessing the effectiveness of marine litter mitigation measures
Ethical theories in research evaluation: an exploratory /
Research evaluation encompasses the practices of assessing research quality and impact at various stages of research. The processes and criteria of research evaluation vary depending on the nature and objectives of the assessment. Different research evaluation systems influence the research strategies of universities and institutes. There are, however, some known issues of research evaluation with regards to the peer review and, most prominently, the use of citation-based metrics, which lead to recent calls for responsible use of metrics. In this paper, we argue that there is a need for ethical theories for considering research evaluation and that research evaluation ethics, as an overlapping area between research ethics and evaluation ethics, deserve its own treatment. The core of the article consists of a discussion of the most influential ethical theories in the context of the research evaluation, including the deontological ethics, the consequentialist ethics and the virtue ethics. The aim is to highlight the need to assume an ethical view that combines the deontological and the consequentialist concepts, adopting ‘common good’ as the most likely pillar for the research evaluation procedures. We propose that the mixed approach would be useful for developing a framework for research evaluation ethics and for analysing ethical approaches and ethical dilemmas in research evaluation