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Maximum Carbon Uptake Rate Dominates the Interannual Variability of Global Net Ecosystem Exchange
No full textTerrestrial ecosystems contribute most of the interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, but processes driving the IAV of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) remain elusive. For a predictive understanding of the global C cycle, it is imperative to identify indicators associated with ecological processes that determine the IAV of NEE. Here, we decompose the annual NEE of global terrestrial ecosystems into their phenological and physiological components, namely maximum carbon uptake (MCU) and release (MCR), the carbon uptake period (CUP), and two parameters, and , that describe the ratio between actual versus hypothetical maximum C sink and source, respectively. Using longterm observed NEE from 66 eddy covariance sites and global products derived from FLUXNET observations, we found that the IAV of NEE is determined predominately by MCU at the global scale, which explains 48% of the IAV of NEE on average while , CUP, , and MCR explain 14%, 25%, 2%, and 8%, respectively. These patterns differ in waterlimited ecosystems versus temperature and radiationlimited ecosystems; 31% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of CUP in waterlimited ecosystems, and 60% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of MCU in temperature and radiationlimited ecosystems. The LundPotsdamJena (LPJ) model and the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) models underestimate the contribution of MCU to the IAV of NEE by about 18% on average, and overestimate the contribution of CUP by about 25%. This study provides a new perspective on the proximate causes of the IAV of NEE, which suggest that capturing the variability of MCU is critical for modeling the IAV of NEE across most of the global land surface
Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble
No full textGlobal gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes
Analytical Techniques for Assessing Gateway and Other Spacecraft Antenna Line-of-Sight
No full textNASAs Artemis program is committed to landing the next man and the first woman on the Moon by 2024. A critical piece of infrastructure for the mission, the Gateway will inaugurate a sustainable crewed presence beyond low-Earth orbit in cis-lunar space and serve as a staging point for a lunar landing system. The Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit of the Gateway offers numerous operational benefits in terms of its Earth access via the Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle, the degree of lunar visibility and surface access it provides, and favorable conditions for station-keeping. To minimize burns during station-keeping and conserve propellant, the Gateway will continually align itself to a solar pressure equilibrium attitude with the Sun; this is convenient for solar array orientation and power generation, but causes difficulties in terms of communication line-of-sight with the Earth, Moon, and visiting vehicles, which appear to be continually rotating about the Gateways local frame. A fixed antenna on the Gateway is continually subject to a moving target and can find itself obstructed by the Gateways own geometry frequently if not placed carefully. To understand the performance of either Earth-pointing or Moon-pointing antenna placements for a given Gateway geometry, a transient solar system simulation of the Gateway is used to step through orbital ephemeris data and determine the periods in which line-of-sight to a chosen target is achieved and lost. Antenna placements can be tested in the simulation and optimized to increase the average line-of-sight exposure to the target, while also minimizing the maximum duration cut-out in line-of-sight communication experienced; long durations without a successful communication link could pose threats to operations, safety, and mission success. It may be necessary to deviate from the Gateways solar pressure equilibrium attitude for short periods of time in order to continue a successful line-of-sight link to a chosen target. Communication coverage spheres can offer insight into what these necessary attitude adjustments may be and are generated by using a 3D mesh of the Gateway and an implementation of the Mller-Trumbore intersection algorithm. This paper outlines the analytical techniques used to perform such antenna placements on the Gateway, offering examples of how line-of-sight strength can be enhanced with an understanding of the Gateway geometry and attitude constraints. These techniques have had direct impact on the writing of communication requirements for NASA and international partner-owned Gateway elements
ILRS: What's New?
No full textOperation through cooperation of organizations leveraging resources to all levels of service functionalit
Advanced Electronics for the SONTRAC Neutron Spectrometer
No full textSolar neutrons are the tell-tale of highly energetic processes (e.g. solar flares) at the Sun in which particle acceleration is taking place over a broad range in energy. Unlike charged radiation, neutrons escape unscathed from the ambient magnetic fields, providing a view of particle acceleration unhindered by the effects of transport. High-energy neutrons are challenging to measure with the traditional double scatter technique based on time-of-flight (ToF). This technique is limited by the finite flight path and active scintillator sizes required by small satellite platforms. The new SOlar Neutron TRACking (SONTRAC) concept, based on scintillating-fiber bundles, will provide high resolution imaging of fast neutrons at energies where the bulk of solar and magnetospheric neutrons resides. Recent development of the new SONTRAC instrument concept's advanced electronics and processing algorithms are presented
A Model for Energy Buildup and Eruption Onset in Coronal Mass Ejections
No full textCoronal mass ejections (CMEs) and eruptive flares (EFs) are the most energetic explosions in the solar system. Their underlying origin is the free energy that builds up slowly in the sheared magnetic field of a filament channel. We report the first end-to-end numerical simulation of a CME/EF, from zero-free-energy initial state through filament channel formation to violent eruption, driven solely by the magnetic-helicity condensation process. Helicity is the topological measure of linkages between magnetic flux systems, and is conserved in the corona, building up inexorably until it is ejected into interplanetary space. Numerous investigations have demonstrated that helicity injected by small-scale vortical motions, such as those observed in the photosphere, undergoes an inverse cascade from small scales to large, condensing at magnetic-polarity boundaries. Our new results verify that this process forms a filament channel within a compact bipolar region embedded in a background dipole field, and show for the first time that a fast CME eventually occurs via the magnetic-breakout mechanism. We further show that the trigger for explosive eruption is reconnection onset in the flare current sheet that develops above the polarity inversion line: this reconnection forms flare loops below the sheet and a CME flux rope above, and initiates high-speed outward flow of the CME. Our findings have important implications for magnetic self organization and explosive behavior in solar and other astrophysical plasmas, as well as for understanding and predicting explosive solar activity
Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux
No full textThe absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams
Building an Economical and Sustainable Lunar Infrastructure to Enable Human Missions
No full textTo enable return of human missions to the surface of the Moon sustainably, a new study was initiated to assess the feasibility of developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable lunar surface infrastructure using a public-private partnerships approach. This approach would establish partnerships between NASA and private industry to mutually develop lunar surface infrastructure capabilities to support robotic missions initially and later evolve to full-scale commercial infrastructure services in support of human missions. These infrastructure services may range from power systems, communication and navigation systems, thermal management systems, mobility systems, water and propellant production to life support systems for human habitats. The public-private partnerships approach for this study leverages best practices from NASAs Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program which introduced an innovative and economical approach for partnering with industry to develop commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). In this approach, NASA and industry partners shared cost and risk throughout the development phase which led to dramatic reduction in development and operations costs of these transportation services. Following this approach, a Lunar COTS concept was conceived to develop cost-effective surface infrastructure capabilities in partnership with industry to provide economical, operational services for small-scale robotic missions. As a result, a self-contained lunar infrastructure system with power, thermal, communication and navigation elements was conceptually designed to increase capability, extend mission duration and reduce cost of small-scale robotic missions. To support human missions, this work has now been extended to analyze full-scale lunar infrastructure systems. This infrastructure system should have capabilities to support human missions from a few days to several months with minimal maintenance and replacement of parts. This infrastructure system should also maximize the use of existing lunar resources, such as, oxygen from regolith, water from ice deposits at the poles, and use of metals, such as iron and aluminum, from lunar regolith. The plan includes a buildup of these capabilities using a phased-development approach that will eventually lead to operational infrastructure services. By partnering with industry to develop and operate the infrastructure services using the COTS model, this plan should also result in significant cost savings and increased reliability. This paper will describe the Lunar COTS concept goals, objectives and approach for developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable human lunar infrastructure as well as the challenges and opportunities for development
The Exo-Brake as an Inexpensive Means of Achieving Sample Return from Low Earth Orbit Recent Flight
No full textThe Exo-Brake is a simple, non-propulsive means of deorbiting small pay-loads from orbital platforms such as the Inter-national Space Station (ISS). Recent flight experiments involving the TechEdSat (TES) 6, 7, 8 are discussed in terms of both targeted and disposal de-orbit techniques. These build on the previous flight experiments with fixed surface areas and now involve improved uplink/downlink communication and GPS for improved targeting and control. The recent targeting experiments are dis-cussed involving the TechEdSat-6,7,8 nanosatellites. The extension of the concept to a 1-stage, 3-stage, and lifting entry sample re-turn system are discussed
Polar Coding For Forward Error Correction In Space Communications With LDPC Comparisons
No full textWith the surging development of optical telecommunicationsfor space applications, the importance of errorcorrection has become more apparent than ever. Specifically,the exploration of forward error correction code (FEC) methodologieswill be instrumental in developing the standards foroptical communications in space. Despite the widespread useof low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes, alternate FEC codessuch as polar codes have shown immense promise in assistingspace communications error correction with their ability tobypass the error floors that plague LDPC codes. Extremelypromising techniques including cyclic redundancy checks (CRC),successive cancellation (SC), and successive cancellation lists(SCL) that assist polar coding in achieving the Shannon limitin a timely manner are evaluated. MATLAB simulations areconducted with AWGN and burst noise to test each technique'sability to handle noise typically encountered in space and eachtechnique's ability to correct unexpected errors. Results ofsimulations for different rates and message lengths are alsoreported to determine each technique's ability to handle largedata volumes and fix errors. Similar simulations are conductedfor LDPC codes with additional tests for convolutional and nointerleavers. Finally, a discussion regarding the future ability ofpolar codes to satisfy current missions in the place of, or inconjunction with, LDPC codes along with the merits of eachFEC technique's ability to process data efficiently and handledata while maintaining adequate performance will be provided.Preliminary recommendations will be made for each technique'seffectiveness for GEO related missions along with discussionsregarding each technique's ability to fit within the CCSDS standards for optical communications