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Advances in Statistical Forecasting Methods: An Overview
Get PDFStatistical tools for forecasting purpose started using smooth exponential methods in 1950s. These methods were modified depending upon the trend followed in the data sets, based upon the evaluation purpose. From simple additive to multiplicative effects and then automated functions were used to evaluate the complexity in data for forecasting purpose. In this review we summarized the various statistical methods used for forecasting purposes starting from the basic function to complex function in order to evaluate various data sets viz-a-viz time series data of different components, like agricultural products, business outcomes, and stock market exchange rates. In order to evaluate the data sets for forecasting purpose to accuracy or near accuracy, various statistical methods will give different predictions depending up on the range of data sets whether daily, weekly, monthly or yearly, number of observations in the data set, seasonality in data sets, number of missing observation in data sets, and more importantly the variation in data sets to interpret the results
Estimation of Growth Trends and Impact Assessment of National Food Security Mission on Chickpea Production in India
Get PDFThe present study has been attempted to analyse the growth trends and impact assessment of NFSM-P on area, production and yield of chickpea in major states in India. The study was based on the secondary data pertaining to the year 1970-71 to 2014-15. To estimate growth trends, compound growth function was fitted and change in area, production and yield of chickpea during NFSM-P period (2008-09 to 2014-15) has been compared with preceding period (1990-91 to 2007-08) for impact assessment of NFSM-P on chickpea in the country. The results of the study indicated that chickpea area in India over the period has almost been stagnating (0.12%, statistically non-significant). The production of has increased at an annual rate of 1.12 per cent owing to the significant annual increase (1.00%) in chickpea yield. The results further highlighted emergence of niche area such as Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka in chickpea production while area shrinkage from Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh was also observed. The yield of chickpea in all the major states of India has shown positive growth during the study period. The effort of the government in the form of NFSM-P has positively impacted area, production and yield of chickpea in the country but increase in production was supported by area addition rather than yield improvement indicating need of technological advancement, improved yield varieties for enhancement of chickpea production in the country
Economics of Production of Ginger in Wayanad District of Kerala, India
Get PDFThe present study was aimed to find out the input use levels and economics of ginger cultivation in Wayanad district of Kerala, during the crop year 2015-16. Total four villages which are leading in the area of ginger cultivation were selected and twenty farmers from each village i.e. total 80 farmers were chosen randomly as sample size. The study indicated that cost of cultivation and gross returns were positively related with size of the holding. The overall cost of cultivation was ` 4, 54,991.62 and ` 4, 94,501.03 per hectare on small and large farms. The expenditure on seed was found to be maximum constituting about 35.01 per cent of total cost followed by human labour, and machine power. All the farm income measures exhibited a positive relationship with the farm size. Returns per rupee of expenditure were found to be ` 0.60 and 0.67 per hectare on small and large farms respectively
Women’s Participation in Agricultural Employment with Special Reference to Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in India
Get PDFRole of women employment is a vital indicator of development showing the proportion of the working population in Indian economy. In spite of high economic growth and significant upsurge in gender equality there is gender gap in economic participation in India. This research paper shows an analysis of women’s participation in agricultural employment with special reference to Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in India. Although the female population is higher in U.P. but female work participation is higher in Uttarakhand. The growth of female work participation almost remains constant. The level and nature of female labour force during the study period is not so good
Prospects of Women Cut Flower Enterprise for Sustainability Approach: A Case Study
Get PDFFloriculture in Nagaland has taken a big leap in the state’s economy helping the growers, who for the love of flowers can now meet their daily expenditures and other needs through this venture. The demand of fresh cut flowers has brought a huge impact in the Floriculture sector providing income as well as employment especially among the home makers and unemployed youths. The present study being undertaken during the agricultural year 2014-2015 in Dimapur and Kohima districts of Nagaland for the assessment of production and marketing of cut flowers as the study comprises of 75 numbers of sample respondents by following a multi-stage stratified simple random sampling method based on the flower growers. The sample population was categorized under alstroemeria, lilium, anthurium, gerbera and orchid group of growers. The average family size were 5.56, out of which 100.00 per cent were literate, as the worker constitutes 46.66 per cent of total population, the overall total cost of cut flower growers were ` 46,600.00/- per acre, as the gross income were ` 2,32,520.00/- per acre, the net return were ` 1, 82,782.00/- per acre and overall benefit-cost ratio were 4.97: 1. There were three (3) marketing channels are identified for the marketing of cut flowers in both the districts, as the Producer’s share in consumer’s rupees were found highest on channel-I, regarding impact has enhanced by ` 1,20,131.80/- per acre to their annual income, while ` 23,101.52/- was increase in their annual expenditure on food items as well as on their annual savings, also an attempt has been made to study the constraints faced by the cut flower growers during the production viz; requirement of more care was foremost followed by lack of timely availability of planting materials, while the marketing constraints include the lack of knowledge on post harvest techniques as the foremost followed by lack of storage facilities and it was least on lack of transportation facilities etc
Does Electricity Consumption affect Economic Growth in Bangladesh?
Get PDFThis research attempts to uncover the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Bangladesh adopting co-integration and causality analysis using time series data spanning from 1972 to 2011. It takes under consideration the variables Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Electricity Consumption (EC) and Carbon dioxide emission (CO2) to fulfill the research objective. Adopting Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests of unit root, it is observed that the first differences of all the three variables are stationary which indicates that the variables are co-integrated of order 1. The trace test and maximum Eigen value of Johansen co-integration test confirm that all the variables are co-integrated with one co-integrating vector. Besides, using Impulse Response Functions (IFRs) of Vector Auto-regression (VAR), the possible forecasting for the relationship of the variables has been performed. The empirical result based on Granger F-test reveals existence of unidirectional causality running from Electricity Consumption (EC) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Electricity Consumption (EC) to Carbon dioxide emission (CO2) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Carbon dioxide emission (CO2) without having any reverse causation. Thus, it implies that Electricity Consumption (EC) affects both Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Carbon dioxide emission (CO2) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) drives only Carbon dioxide emission (CO2) in short run without feedback in the long run
Analysis of Modernized Value Chain of Walnut in Jammu & Kashmir
Get PDFThis study intends to investigate the modernized supply chain of walnut in Jammu & Kashmir. The study reported that modernized supply chain involves huge investment and that the value addition of walnut in their processing units are exclusively earmarked for export markets. It was observed that setting up of a processing unit for value addition of walnut is a capital intensive activity. Moreover, in modernized channels, processors were found to pay better to the functionaries from whom they purchase walnut. Results revealed that the marketing efficiency was more in channel where they purchase directly from farmers and also their net price is more in this channel. Based upon the findings, the study emphasized upon linking walnut production with marketing through value addition. In addition, this paper concluded with few pragmatic policy options for the promotion of exports, reduction of losses and sustainable growth of this fruit in Jammu & Kashmir
Harnessing India’s Demographic Dividend through Skilling: Challenges and Way Forward
Get PDFThe ‘demographic dividend’ provides India with strong advantages for achieving high rates of growth powered by an enlarging working age population. This represents a huge opportunity for the country to increase productivity by investing in the skills of the working age population. A vast majority of who have limited access to education and training; are either inactive or engaged in low-skilled work in the informal economy. India’s demography therefore, presents a potential danger also; if the labour market is not made more inclusive through a balanced approach to human capital development, the consequences of demographic failure could be grave. To capitalize on the demographic bulge, the Government has undertaken a number of policy initiatives, programmatic and systemic interventions. Efforts are being made to equip youth with the skills required by today’s industries and address the demand & supply gaps, but this is turning out to be a daunting task. In this context, the present article analyses the current state of education, skills development and employment for Indian youth and discusses some major challenges India faces while implementing different initiatives and strategies for developing a robust skilling ecosystem. The article also highlights certain emerging issues which merit immediate policy attention if skill development is to be a means for achieving inclusive development
Patterns of Informality in the Ship Breaking Industry of Bangladesh
Get PDFThe relationship between economic growth and formalization of industrial sectors has not been unidimensional as several studies have brought different aspects of it from diverse contexts. This paper tries to evaluate the persistence of informality in the ship breaking industry of Bangladesh by setting it against the proclaimed formality of the sector. In addition, the paper also seeks to support the argument that informal patterns of employment can persist, if not grow, within a formal system. Both qualitative and quantitative data have been collected by questionnaire survey and key informant interviews. Analysis of the findings reveal a strong presence of informality within labor market dynamics of ship breaking industry in Bangladesh while several administrative aspects of the industry remain formalized. Study findings support the notion that growth as well as institutional development cannot necessarily transform informal conditions of labor market in developing country context
Analysis of Prices and Arrivals of Apple Fruit in Narwal Market of Jammu
Get PDFThe present study was conducted with an intention to study the behavior of prices and arrivals of apple fruit in Narwal market of Jammu and also to estimate their trend. This study is based on the secondary data of one decade collected from Directorate of Horticulture, Planning and Marketing, Narwal, Jammu. Ten years monthly data i.e. from 2007-08 to 2016- 17 on prices and arrivals of apple have been utilized for modeling purpose. For analytical framework Linear Regression Equation were used to study the Trend of the time Series Data on prices and arrivals and seasonal indices were calculated to study the periodic movements in business activity which occur regularly every year and have their origin in the nature of the year itself. The results showed positive trend in both prices and arrivals of apple. Moreover the prices and arrivals are anticipated to increase at the rate of ` 220.06 per annum per quintal which is 15969.42 quintals of apple arrivals per year. The main season for arrivals of local as well as non-local apple from other regions and states in Narwal market was from August to January. Prices for apples were found lowest in the month of April (` 6707.00/qntls.) and contrary in the month of August with highest price rate (` 100892.50/qntls.). The seasonal indices of arrivals of apple in Narwal market were recorded maximum during the month of October (471.00) and minimum in the month of April (0.19). The seasonal index for prices being lowest in the month of April (0.19) and the highest in August (160.66)