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Monetary Policy Report 2/2024
Full text linkThe monetary policy strategy describes the Committee’s interpretation of the mandate for monetary policy and provides a framework for the Committee’s assessments of the appropriate monetary policy reaction to different shocks. A summary of the strategy is provided here and published in full on Norges Bank’s web pages. Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at its meeting on 19 June. Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks, the policy rate will likely be kept at that level for some time ahead.publishedVersio
The bias of the ECB inflation projections: a state-dependent analysis
Full text linkWe test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank’s inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the target too quickly. These results cannot be fully explained by the persistence embedded in the forecasting models nor by errors in the exogenous assumptions on interest rates, exchange rates or oil prices. The state-dependent bias may be consistent with the aim of managing inflation expectations, as published forecasts play a central role in the ECB’s monetary policy communication strategy.publishedVersio
Pengepolitisk rapport 3/2024
Full text linkDen pengepolitiske strategien beskriver hvordan komiteen tolker mandatet for pengepolitikken og gir en ramme for komiteens vurderinger av hvordan pengepolitikken vil innrettes i møte med ulike forstyrrelser. Strategien oppsummeres her og er publisert i sin helhet på Norges Banks nettsider. Norges Banks komité for pengepolitikk og finansiell stabilitet besluttet på møtet 18. september å holde styringsrenten uendret på 4,5 prosent. Slik komiteen nå vurderer utsiktene, vil styringsrenten mest sannsynlig holdes på dette nivået ut året.publishedVersio
Firms' transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions and the risk in Norwegian banks
Full text linkFor a period of time, climate change could increase firms’ costs and reduce the value of their assets. If we assume that the composition of banks’ lending remains constant, the increase in costs could increase the banks’ losses. The risk of increased losses is very unevenly distributed between industries, and the increase will probably come at the same time as firms’ need for financing to reduce emissions increases.publishedVersio
Piecing the puzzle : real exchange rates and long-run fundamentals
Full text linkThis paper examines the structural determinants of real exchange rates, emphasizing the persistent low-frequency movements that traditional models, such as Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP), often fail to capture. To address this, we propose a structural VAR model with common trends, enabling a clear distinction between transitory and long-term effects of structural shocks. Estimated using Bayesian techniques and applied to Canada and Norway — two resourcerich economies — the model reveals that productivity shifts and commodity market trends significantly influence domestic activity and the real exchange rate in both countries. Importantly, the model also avoids the delayed overshooting puzzle commonly associated with recursive VARs in response to monetary policy shocks. Instead, it generates exchange rate dynamics consistent with the UIP hypothesis, characterized by immediate overshooting followed by a gradual depreciation to equilibrium.publishedVersio
Financial Stability Report 2024 H2 : household and corporate sector vulnerabilities and risks
Full text linkIn its bi-annual Financial Stability Report, Norges Bank discusses developments in financial markets, the Norwegian economy, banks and other financial institutions and assesses the financial stability outlook. The Report for H1 emphasises analyses of financial institutions, including a stress test of the banking sector. In H2, emphasis will normally be on analyses of households and firms. Assessments of the countercyclical capital buffer and other recommendations for measures to safeguard financial stability are made on the basis of the assessments and analyses in the Report. In the Financial Infrastructure Report, Norges Bank assesses vulnerabilities and risks in the financial infrastructure. The report Norway’s financial system provides a comprehensive overview of Norway’s financial system, its tasks and the performance of these tasks. Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee discussed the contents of Financial Stability Report 2024 H2 at seminars and meetings on 29 September, 29 October and 25 November 2024.publishedVersio
Report from Norges Bank Watch 2024
Full text linkRemarks by Pål Longva, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, 23 February 2024.publishedVersio
Rapport fra Norges Bank Watch 2024
Full text linkInnlegg ved visesentralbanksjef Pål Longva, 23. februar 2024.publishedVersio
Norges Banks oppgjørssystem : Årsrapport 2023
Full text linkFormålet med Norges Banks oppgjørssystem (NBO) er å gjennomføre sikre og effektive oppgjør av betalinger mellom banker som har konto i Norges Bank. Årsrapporten omhandler hovedaktiviteter og tiltak for å ivareta formålet.publishedVersio