Norges Banks vitenarkiv
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Styringsrenten holdes uendret
Get PDFSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning på pressekonferanse om rentebeslutningen 25. januar 2024.publishedVersio
Financial Infrastructure Report 2024
Get PDFIn its annual Financial Infrastructure Report, Norges Bank discusses
developments, vulnerabilities and risks in the financial infrastructure.
The Report is a part of Norges Bank’s work to promote financial stability
and contribute to an efficient and secure financial infrastructure.publishedVersio
On Bayesian filtering for Markov regime switching models
Get PDFThis paper presents a framework for empirical analysis of dynamic macroeconomic models using Bayesian filtering, with a specific focus on the state-space formulation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models with multiple regimes. We outline the theoretical foundations of model estimation, provide the details of two families of powerful multiple-regime filters, IMM and GPB, and construct corresponding multiple-regime smoothers. A simulation exercise, based on a prototypical New Keynesian DSGE model, is used to demonstrate the computational robustness of the proposed filters and smoothers and evaluate their accuracy and speed for a selection of filters from each family. We show that the canonical IMM filter is faster and is no less, and often more, accurate than its competitors within IMM and GPB families, the latter including the commonly used Kim and Nelson (1999) filter. Using it with the matching smoother improves the precision in recovering unobserved variables by about 25%. Furthermore, applying it to the U.S. 1947-2023 macroeconomic time series, we successfully identify significant past policy shifts including those related to the post-Covid-19 period. Our results demonstrate the practical applicability and potential of the proposed routines in macroeconomic analysis.publishedVersio
Unveiling inflation: oil shocks, supply chain pressures, and expectations
Get PDFThis paper demonstrates that inflation expectations have acted as significant amplifiers of recent global demand and supply shocks, thereby playing a crucial role in maintaining inflation at relatively high levels. This finding is established by applying a structural vector autoregression model that includes various shocks to global demand and supply, along with domestic inflation and inflation expectations for six economies: the United States, Canada, New Zealand, the Euro area, the United Kingdom, and Norway. We begin by documenting that global demand and supply shocks in the oil market, as well as global supply chain disruptions, have been major drivers of the recent inflation surge in all these economies. Subsequently, through various counterfactual and conditional forecasting exercises, we demonstrate that inflation expectations generally amplify the transmission of global shocks to inflation and have played a critical role in sustaining elevated inflation rates in recent years, particularly in the United States, Canada, and New Zealand.publishedVersio
Ansvarlig innovasjon i betalingssystemet
Get PDFForedrag av Torbjørn Hægeland, direktør for avdeling for finansiell stabilitet, Norges Bank, på Finans Norges betalings- og digitaliseringskonferanse 7. november 2024.publishedVersio
Policy rate kept on hold
Get PDFIntroductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the press conference following announcement of the policy rate on 3 May 2024.publishedVersio
Record increase in payment remarks: A red flag for Norwegian firms?
Get PDFThis staff memo documents a detailed analysis of the payment remark database to better understand whether the recent increase in payment remarks signals an impending wave of bankruptcies. We find that the number of high-bankruptcy-risk firms is growing in proportion to the total number of firms with remarks. This suggests that the recent increase in payment remarks is likely to predict a proportional rise in bankruptcies and should therefore be closely monitored.publishedVersio
Retail payment services 2023
Get PDFNorway is one of the countries in the world with the highest annual use of payment cards per inhabitant. On average, each Norwegian used a card 550 times in 2023. Most card payments were made at a physical point of sale. Points of sale include shops, restaurants, vending machines, hairdressing salons, public transport and so on. Physical payment cards were used for most of these payments, but the number of card payments through mobile phones is rapidly increasing. Our latest survey shows that 20 percent of payments at a physical point of sale were made using various mobile payment platforms. Online purchases have been growing strongly for many years. Most online purchases are settled using a payment card, either directly or via various mobile payment platforms. One in four online purchases were settled in other ways, the most common being payment against an invoice. The different card systems are used in different areas. For online shopping and mobile payments, international payment cards are primarily used. The strong growth in these areas has led to BankAxept payments accounting for a falling share of card payments. In 2023, BankAxept payments accounted for 53 percent of card payments. In 2019, the year before the pandemic, they accounted for 65 percent of card payments. Cash use has stabilised in the last few years after long being in decline. Our latest survey shows that 2 percent of survey participants used cash the last time they paid at a physical point of sale. Withdrawals of cash has also been stable in recent years.publishedVersio
Norway's financial system 2024
Get PDFThe report Norway’s Financial System provides a general overview of the financial system in Norway, its tasks and how these tasks are carried out. The introduction provides an overall overview of all the components of the financial system. Section 1 describes the various markets: the money, bond, foreign exchange and equity markets, and the financial derivatives markets. Section 2 discusses the most important financial institutions: banks, mortgage companies, insurance companies, pension schemes and various funds, etc in addition to Norges Bank, which itself is part of the financial system. Section 3 describes the financial system infrastructure, which includes the payment system and systems for the payment and transfer of securities, foreign currency and derivatives.publishedVersio