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Forbearance Patterns in the Post-Crisis Period
Get PDFUsing supervisory loan-level data on corporate loans, we show that banks facing high levels of non-performing loans relative to their capital and provisions were more likely to grant forbearance measures to the riskiest group of borrowers. More specifically, we find that risky borrowers are more likely to get an increase in the overall limit or the maturity of a loan product from a distressed lender. As a second step, we analyse the effectiveness of this practice in reducing the probability of default. We show that the most common measure of forbearance is effective in the short run but no forbearance measure significantly reduces the probability of default in the long run. Our evidence also suggests that forbearance and new lending are substitutes for banks, as high shares of forbearance are negatively correlated with new lending to the same group of borrowers.publishedVersio
Norway's Financial System 2018 : An Overwiew
No full textNorway’s financial system provides a general overview of the financial system in Norway, its tasks and how these tasks are carried out. This report is meant as a reference guide and textbook and is intended for a broad audience. The focus is on presenting the financial system in a simplified manner. Financial system professionals will also be able to find useful information. Hyperlinks to other, more detailed Norges Bank publications and to other institutions have been inserted in the text, enabling the reader to delve more deeply into topics of interest. The introduction provides an overall overview of all the components of the financial system and recent changes. Section 1 describes the various markets: the money, bond, foreign exchange and equity markets, and the financial derivatives markets. Section 2 discusses the most important financial institutions: banks, mortgage companies, insurance companies, pension schemes and various funds, etc. Section 3 describes the financial system infrastructure, which includes the payment system and systems for the payment and transfer of securities, foreign currency and derivatives. The aim of this report is to promote public understanding of the financial system. The report will be revised annually to ensure that it is kept up to date and maintains its relevance as a reference and textbook.publishedVersio
Pengepolitisk rapport med vurdering av finansiell stabilitet 4/18
Get PDFRapporten blir lagt frem fire ganger i året, i mars, juni, september og desember. Rapporten vurderer utsiktene for renten og danner grunnlaget for Norges Banks råd om nivået på den motsykliske kapitalbufferen. Rapporten inneholder anslag for utviklingen i norsk og internasjonal økonomi. På møtet 5. desember 2018 drøftet hovedstyret de økonomiske utsiktene, hovedlinjene i pengepolitikken og behovet for en motsyklisk kapitalbuffer i bankene. På grunnlag av denne drøftingen og en tilråding fra bankens ledelse fattet hovedstyret i møtet 12. desember 2018 vedtak om styringsrenten. Hovedstyret vedtok også Norges Banks råd til Finansdepartementet om nivået på den motsykliske kapitalbufferen. Hovedstyrets vurdering av de økonomiske utsiktene og pengepolitikken er gjengitt i avsnittet «Hovedstyrets vurdering». Rådet om nivået på den motsykliske kapitalbufferen sendes Finansdepartementet i forbindelse med publisering av rapporten. Rådet offentliggjøres når Finansdepartementet har fattet sin beslutning
Etterprøving av Norges Banks anslag for 2017
Get PDFNorges Banks anslag for den økonomiske utviklingen, både hjemme og hos våre viktigste handelspartnere, er sentrale i utformingen av pengepolitikken. Gjennom å etterprøve og analysere våre anslagsfeil kan vi øke forståelsen for økonomiens virkemåte og forbedre våre prognoser. Norges Banks anslag for den økonomiske utviklingen blir derfor etterprøvd årlig. I dette memoet blir det først gitt en kort oversikt over den økonomiske utviklingen i 2017. Deretter blir Norges Banks anslag for 2017 sett opp mot den faktiske utviklingen, og avvikene blir vurdert i lys av historiske anslagsfeil. Videre blir våre anslag sammenlignet med prognoser fra andre institusjoner i Norge. De internasjonale anslagene blir etterprøvd i et eget Norges Bank Memo. Årsanslaget fra Pengepolitisk rapport 4/16 for BNP-vekst for Fastlands- Norge i 2017 viste seg å treffe den faktiske utviklingen nokså godt. Anslaget for sysselsettingsveksten viste seg å være noe lavt, mens registrert arbeidsledighet falt mer enn ventet. Også konsumprisveksten målt ved KPI-JAE og årslønnsveksten ble lavere enn ventet.publishedVersio
Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment 2/18
Get PDFThe Report is published four times a year, in March, June, September and December. The Report assesses the interest rate outlook and forms the basis for Norges Bank’s advice on the level of the countercyclical capital buffer. The Report includes projections of developments in the Norwegian and global economy. At its meeting on 13 June 2018, the Executive Board discussed the economic outlook, the monetary policy stance and the need for a countercyclical capital buffer for banks. On the basis of that discussion and the advice of Norges Bank’s executive management, the Executive Board made its decision on the key policy rate at its meeting on 20 June 2018. The Executive Board also approved Norges Bank’s advice to the Ministry of Finance on the level of the countercyclical capital buffer. The Executive Board’s assessment of the economic outlook and monetary policy strategy is provided in “The Executive Board’s assessment”. The advice on the level of the countercyclical capital buffer is submitted to the Ministry of Finance in connection with the publication of the Report. The advice is made public when the Ministry of Finance has made its decision
Pengepolitisk rapport med vurdering av finansiell stabilitet 4/17
Get PDFRapporten blir lagt frem fire ganger i året, i mars, juni, september og desember. Rapporten vurderer utsiktene for renten og danner grunnlaget for Norges Banks råd om nivået på den motsykliske kapitalbufferen. Rapporten inneholder anslag for utviklingen i norsk og internasjonal økonomi. På møtet 6. desember 2017 drøftet hovedstyret de økonomiske utsiktene, hovedlinjene i pengepolitikken og behovet for en motsyklisk kapitalbuffer i bankene. På grunnlag av denne drøftingen og en tilråding fra bankens ledelse fattet hovedstyret i møtet 13. desember 2017 vedtak om styringsrenten. Hovedstyret vedtok også Norges Banks råd til Finansdepartementet om nivået på den motsykliske kapitalbufferen. Hovedstyrets vurdering av de økonomiske utsiktene og pengepolitikken er gjengitt i avsnittet «Hovedstyrets vurdering». Rådet om nivået på den motsykliske kapitalbufferen sendes Finansdepartementet i forbindelse med publisering av rapporten. Rådet offentliggjøres når Finansdepartementet har fattet sin beslutning
Financial Stability Report 2018 : vulnerabilities and risks
No full textIn the annual Financial Stability Report, Norges Bank assesses vulnerabilities and risks in the financial system, with a focus on the long-term, structural features of banks, financial markets and the Norwegian economy that are of importance for financial stability. Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment includes an ongoing assessment of financial imbalances and the banking sector, Norges Bank’s monetary policy assessments and the decision basis for the countercyclical capital buffer for banks. In the Financial Infrastructure Report, Norges Bank assesses vulnerabilities and risks in the financial infrastructure. The report Norway’s Financial System provides a comprehensive overview of Norway’s financial system, its tasks and the performance of these tasks. The Executive Board discussed the 2018 Financial Stability Report at its meeting on 19 September and 24 October.publishedVersio
Lending Growth, Non-Performing Loans and Loan Losses
Get PDFAt macro level, large loan losses for banks have often been preceded by periods of high lending growth. We analyse at bank level whether high loan growth also leads to more problem loans later on. The analysis is carried out on a panel of Norwegian banks covering the period 1996 – 2016. The applied methodology is similar to the one found in similar studies on Spanish banks as well as on banks in several OECD countries. We find a statistically significant positive relationship between past excessive loan growth at a bank and its amount of problem loans 2 – 3 years ahead. Unlike in the studies of other countries, the effect is not economically significant. Results do not indicate that excessive loan growth will never have any adverse effect at Norwegian banks, as our sample covers a relatively calm period in the Norwegian banking sector. Nevertheless, with a non-linear technique, we do find some indication that banks with much higher lending growth also experience proportionally much higher loan losses.publishedVersio
