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ECB Spillovers and Domestic Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Small Open Economies
Get PDFIn this paper we study financial spillovers from the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy and communication, and whether they have consequences for the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy of small open economies. Recent work suggests that the "trilemma" in international economics as we used to know it, is actually a dilemma: small open economies with floating exchange rate regimes can only have independent monetary policies when the capital account is managed. Our findings show that domestic monetary policy is still effective, but that spillover effects, particularly from the ECB's communication, reduce domestic control over the longer end of the yield curve.publishedVersio
Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting
Get PDFMonetary policy plays a central role in modern macroeconomics and many countries around the world has adopted inflation targeting as a guideline for policy. We emphasize and explain policy goals and then we assume that the central bank sets interest rates to ensure that these goals are met. We start with a simple model for a closed economy, where we briefly also discuss fi nancial stability. We then expand the model and consider open economies. We develop the analytical results, but we focus on graphical discussions. Effects of various disturbances are analyzed using comparative statics.publishedVersio
Forvaltning og risiko
Get PDFForedrag av visesentralbanksjef Egil Matsen på et seminar i regi av Norges Bank
Utfordringer i betalingssystemet
Get PDFTale av visesentralbanksjef Jon Nicolaisen, Finans Norges betalingsformidlings-konferanse, 1. november 2018
Bankenes utlån til næringseiendom – en kilde til systemrisiko?
Get PDFUtlån til næringseiendom utgjør nesten halvparten av bankenes utlån til ikke- finansielle foretak. Disse lånene har normalt lave tap i gode tider, men har vist seg som en av de største kildene til tap i bankene under finansielle kriser. Det er ofte dårlig samsvar mellom løpetiden på bankenes utlån til næringseiendom og eiendommens levetid. Det er derfor en risiko for at bankene ikke i tilstrekkelig grad priser inn tapene på næringseiendom under kriser. Videre argumenterer vi for at det er særlig innen kontoreiendom at den finansielle risikoen er høy. Dagens situasjon i Oslo er preget av høye priser. Det er høy arealutnyttelse og det har vært bygd lite de siste årene. Strukturelle faktorer bidrar til å redusere nybygging på spekulasjon. Stram tilbudsside kan bidra til å redusere risikoen for en stor prisjustering selv om avkastningskravet skulle gå opp.publishedVersio
Residential Construction and Household Formation
Get PDFPopulation growth in Norway over the past 10-15 years has been strong, while residential construction activity has been fairly low. At the same time, household size continues to decline. The increase in the number of households has been higher than the increase in the number of new housing units built, particularly in urban areas. This construction shortfall has contributed to rapid house price inflation in this period. Since end-2015, population growth has slowed and the number of new units built has increased, which has reduced the construction shortfall.updatedVersio
Bank Lending to the Commercial Real Estate Sector - a Source of Systemic Risk?
Get PDFBanks' commercial real estate loans account for almost half of banks' total loans to non-financial enterprises. Losses on these loans are normally low in good times, but they have proved to be one of the largest sources of bank losses in financial crises. As there is often a mismatch between the maturity of a bank's commercial real estate loan and the lifetime of a property, there is a risk that banks do not adequately price in losses on commercial real estate loans incurred during crises. This article further argues that financial risk is particularly high in the office segment. Prices in Oslo are currently elevated, vacancy rates are low and construction in recent years has been limited. Structural factors are restraining speculative construction. A tight market on the supply side may contribute to reducing the risk of a substantial price adjustment even if yields should rise.updatedVersio
Financial Globalization and Bank Lending : The Limits of Domestic Monetary Policy?
Get PDFWe empirically analyze how bank lending reacts to monetary policy in the presence of global financial flows. Employing a unique and novel dataset of the funding modes and currency composition of the full population of Norwegian banks in structurally identified regressions, we show that the efficiency of the bank lending channel is affected when banks can shift to international funding and thus insulate their costs of funding from domestic monetary policy. We isolate the effect of global factors from domestic monetary policy by focusing on the deviation of exchange rates from the prediction of (uncovered and covered) interest rate parity. The Norwegian banking sector represents an ideal laboratory since the exogenous exchange rate dynamics allows for a convincing identification of the relation between lending and global factors.publishedVersio
An historical perspective on financial stability and monetary policy regimes : A case for caution in central banks current obsession with financial stability
Get PDFThe global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2008 led to a call for central banks to elevate their financial stability mandate to the same level as their price stability mandate. It also led to a call for central banks to use their monetary policy tools as well as the tools of macro prudential policy to head off incipient credit driven asset price booms, which were viewed as the primary cause of the GFC. Others have questioned the elevation of the financial stability mandate and also the use of the tools of monetary policy for financial stability purposes. To help resolve this debate I examine: the history of monetary policy and financial stability regimes in advanced countries in the past two centuries; the historical empirical evidence on the determinants, incidence, and costs of financial crises; and historical empirical evidence on the relationships between credit booms, asset price booms and financial crises for 15 countries in the past century. My findings suggest that: financial crises are highly heterogeneous and have many causes, not just restricted to credit driven asset price booms; that the links between credit booms and serious financial crises are quite weak. Moreover, the coincidence of credit booms and serious financial crises is most evident in two “perfect storms”: 1929-1933 and 2007-2008. In other words that they are rare events. This leads to the question whether such rare events should lead to a sea change in monetary policy and financial stability policy. The experience of financial repression in the decades following the Great Depression raises some serious doubts.publishedVersio
Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment 1/18
Get PDFThe Report is published four times a year, in March, June, September and December. The Report assesses the interest rate outlook and forms the basis for Norges Bank’s advice on the level of the countercyclical capital buffer. The Report includes projections of developments in the Norwegian and global economy. On 2 March 2018, the Government laid down a new Regulation on Monetary Policy. The Executive Board discussed the new regulation at its meeting on 28 February 2018. At its meeting on 7 March 2018, the Executive Board discussed the economic outlook, the monetary policy stance and the need for a countercyclical capital buffer for banks. On the basis of that discussion and the advice of Norges Bank’s executive management, the Executive Board made its decision on the key policy rate at its meeting on 14 March 2018. The Executive Board also approved Norges Bank’s advice to the Ministry of Finance on the level of the countercyclical capital buffer. The Executive Board’s assessment of the economic outlook and monetary policy strategy is provided in “The Executive Board’s assessment”. The advice on the level of the countercyclical capital buffer is submitted to the Ministry of Finance in connection with the publication of the Report. The advice is made public when the Ministry of Finance has made its decision