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Driving Forces Behind European Commercial Real Estate Prices Prior to a Sharp Fall in Prices
Get PDFWhat factors have driven commercial real estate (CRE) prices upwards prior to a sharp fall in prices? We study this question by identifying turning points in CRE for a dataset covering the prime office segment in 58 cities in Europe. CRE prices are decomposed into rents and CRE yields. Our results show that the increase in rents was the main driver behind the rise in CRE prices before peaks in the period 1980 to 2003. In the period 2004 to 2016, the decline in CRE yields was the main driver and was partly caused by a general downward trend in European CRE yields before the global financial crisis. A significant part of the decline is still left unexplained after controlling for factors such as the risk-free rate, the risk premium and city-specific effects. The reduction in CRE yields caused by the residual and the time dummies was likely driven by a change in omitted variables such as time variation in access to credit, capital requirements, the expected long-run rent growth rate and/or CRE specific risk premiums
The Effect of Higher Interest Rates on Household Disposable Income and Consumption - a Static Analysis of the Cash-Flow Channel
Get PDFHousehold debt in Norway has risen substantially over the past 15-20 years relative to both disposable income and bank deposits. An increase in interest rates will therefore reduce disposable income for Norwegian households more than previously. Changes in interest rates can have a direct impact on household consumption via changes in disposable income - an effect generally referred to as the cash-flow channel. In this article, we use tax data from Statistics Norway for all Norwegian households in the period between 2004 and 2015 to shed light on how the cash-flow channel has developed over time. In line with developments in net household debt, we find that the cash-flow effect has become stronger in recent years, but that the increase is somewhat smaller than the total increase in net interest expenses in isolation would imply, owing to increased buffers in the form of liquid assets
Hvem bestemmer renten i Norge?
Get PDFDirektør for Norges Bank Pengepolitikk, Ida Wolden Bache, holder foredrag på Samfunnsøkonomenes valutaseminar i Oslo
Det norske finansielle systemet 2018 : en oversikt
No full textRapporten gir en samlet oversikt over det finansielle systemet i Norge, hvilke oppgaver det utfører og hvordan disse oppgavene blir utført. Rapporten er ment som et oppslagsverk og en lærebok. Den retter seg mot et bredt publikum, og det er lagt vekt på en enkel fremstilling. Profesjonelle deltakere i det finansielle systemet kan også finne nyttig informasjon. Det er lagt inn lenker til andre mer utfyllende Norges Bank-publikasjoner og til andre institusjoner slik at leserne kan fordype seg videre i de temaene som er av interesse. Faguttrykk er forklart i egen ordliste (vedlegg 3). Innledningen gir overordnet oversikt over hele det finansielle systemet og endringer den siste tiden. Kapittel 1 beskriver de ulike markedene: penge-, obligasjons-, valuta-, og aksjemarkedet og markedene for finansielle derivater. Kapittel 2 omtaler de viktigste finansforetakene: banker, kredittforetak, forsikring- og pensjonsordninger, ulike fond m.m. Kapittel 3 beskriver infrastrukturen i det finansielle systemet. Infrastrukturen omfatter betalingssystemet og systemene der betaling og overføring av verdipapirer, valuta og derivater i finansmarkedene skjer.publishedVersio
Regulering av boliglån – effekter på kreditt og boligpriser
Get PDFInternasjonale analyser finner at reguleringstiltak rettet mot boliglån kan bidra til å dempe veksten i boligpriser og kreditt, men resultatene spriker noe med hensyn på hvilke tiltak som virker og hvor effektive de er. Effektene kan være betydelige. Stimuleringseffekten ved lemping på tiltak i nedgangsperioder virker til å være svakere.publishedVersio
How Do Households Finance Real Estate Purchases?
Get PDFNorwegian households' high debt levels have long been cited as a financial stability risk (see e.g. Norges Bank's Financial Stability Report). Household borrowing is closely associated with the financing of home purchases, but there are also alternative sources of financing such as proceeds from the sale of a home or household savings. We show how households finance their real estate purchases by dividing buyers into five groups based on age, housing market status and whether they are buying a dwelling or holiday home. We compare financial transactions of real estate buyers with reference groups of non-buyers. As expected, an increase in indebtedness is the most important contribution to financing a home. But these households also draw on bank deposits and other savings. Holiday home buyers rely on savings the most. For first-home buyers, there is an unexplained contribution. This may reflect transfers from parents and receipt of inheritances.publishedVersio
En internasjonal sammenligning av norsk banksektor
Get PDFBankene dominerer den finansielle sektoren i Norge. Hvor stor er norsk banksektor sammenlignet med banksektorene i andre land? Vi finner at Norge har en nokså liten banksektor i forhold til BNP sammenlignet med de andre nordiske landene og andre vest-europeiske land. En viktig grunn til at banksektoren i Norge er nokså liten, uavhengig av hvilken definisjon man bruker, er at norskeide banker har relativt mindre virksomhet i utlandet enn det nasjonale banker i andre land har. En petroleumssektor som i stor grad finansierer seg i utlandet forklarer lite av forskjellene.publishedVersio
Central Bank Digital Currencies
Get PDFA central bank digital currency (CBDC) is a digital form of central bank money denominated in the official unit of account for general purpose users. A CBDC can take several forms with different properties, depending on its purpose. A Norges Bank working group has completed an initial phase of a study of CBDCs. The working group's report provides an overview of the issues that it regards as relevant in an assessment of whether to introduce a CBDC in Norway.publishedVersio
Retail Payment Services 2017
Get PDFIn 2017, the average number of card transactions per inhabitant was 441, while the average value of card transactions was NOK 397. There was renewed strong growth in the use of international payment cards, reflecting sharp increases in internet and mobile payments. There was a further decline in the use of the cash infrastructure, such as ATMs and point-of-sale (POS) cash-back. Sample-based surveys from Norges Bank indicate that cash is currently used in approximately every tenth payment made by private individuals at points of sale and for P2P (person-to-person) payment transactions. Starting with the statistical year 2017, Norges Bank publishes figures for mobile payments, instant payments and contactless card payments.publishedVersio
