Norges Banks vitenarkiv
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Digitale sentralbankpenger
Get PDFDigitale sentralbankpenger (DSP) er allment tilgjengelige elektroniske penger utstedt av sentralbanken i den offisielle pengeenheten. DSP kan ta flere former og ha forskjellige egenskaper, avhengig av formål. En arbeidsgruppe i Norges Bank har gjennomført en første fase av en utredning om DSP. Rapporten gir en oversikt over hvilke forhold arbeidsgruppen mener er relevante i en vurdering av om DSP bør innføres i Norge.publishedVersio
Kunderetta betalingsformidling 2017
Get PDFKvar av oss brukte betalingskortet i gjennomsnitt 441 gonger i 2017, medan den gjennomsnittlege verdien av korttransaksjonane var 397 kroner. Det var på nytt sterk vekst i bruken av internasjonale betalingskort, etter at betalingar over internett og mobilbetalingar auka mykje. Det var ytterlegare nedgang i bruken av kontantinfrastruktur, som minibankar og kontantuttak ved varekjøp (cash-back). Utvalsundersøkingar frå Noregs Bank syner at kontantar no vert nytta i om lag kvar tiande betaling som privatpersonar gjer på utsalsstader og til andre privatpersonar. Frå og med statistikkåret 2017 vert det publisert tal for mobilbetalingar, Straksbetalingar og kontaktlause kortbetalingar.publishedVersio
Forecast Density Combinations of Dynamic Models and Data Driven Portfolio Strategies
Get PDFA dynamic asset-allocation model is specified in probabilistic terms as a combination of return distributions resulting from multiple pairs of dynamic models and portfolio strategies based on momentum patterns in US industry returns. The nonlinear state space representation of the model allows efficient and robust simulation-based Bayesian inference using a novel non-linear filter. Combination weights can be crosscorrelated and correlated over time using feedback mechanisms. Diagnostic analysis gives insight into model and strategy misspecification. Empirical results show that a smaller flexible model-strategy combination performs better in terms of expected return and risk than a larger basic model-strategy combination. Dynamic patterns in combination weights and diagnostic learning provide useful signals for improved modelling and policy, in particular, from a risk-management perspective.publishedVersio
House Prices and Household Consumption
Get PDFNeither standard economic theory nor empirical studies provide an unequivocal answer to the question of the effect of changes in house prices on household consumption. Estimating this effect empirically is demanding because both house prices and consumption are influenced by a number of common factors that are difficult to measure. Norwegian studies of the relationship between house prices and consumption have until now been based on time series for the country as a whole. In this article, I investigate the relationship between house prices and consumption using empirical analysis based on Norwegian data at the county level. The results suggest that there is a significant positive correlation between developments in house prices and household consumption. The estimated effects are consistent with the results of more recent studies based on national data for Norway, but are slightly weaker than the results of similar research in other countries.publishedVersio
Bærekraftsmålene og Statens pensjonsfond utland
No full textThe UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set out an ambitious policy agenda to achieve sustainable economic, social and environmental development by 2030. As a long-term and global owner, the Government Pension Fund Global has an interest in a more sustainable global economy. Achieving the SDGs, in both developed and developing countries, could contribute to the long-term return of the fund through increased economic resilience.This note explores the economic context of the SDGs and the role institutional investors may play in achieving these goals. The fund supports the transition to a more sustainable global economy in four main ways. We provide long-term capital to over 9,000 companies and exercise our ownership to strengthen governance, improve performance and promote sustainable business practices. We invest in 38 developing markets, of which nearly half are outside our benchmark, thereby providing long-term capital to countries most in need of investments. Through our environment-related mandates, we make additional investments in companies offering or developing solutions for a more environmentally friendly economy. Finally, we reduce our exposure to unacceptable risks through ethical exclusions and risk-based divestments.publishedVersio
Norges Bank : sentralbankvirksomheten : årsrapport 2017
Get PDFFra 2016 er årsberetningen for sentralbankvirksomheten skilt ut som en egen rapport. Den var tidligere å finne som del tre i årsberetningen. Norges Bank er organisert i to virksomhetsområder: Sentralbankvirksomheten og Norges Banks Investment Management (NBIM). Denne rapporten omhandler Sentralbankvirksomheten og utfyller Norges Banks årsrapport og regnskap 2017.publishedVersio
Regler for tilbakevekting : Forventet avkastning og transaksjonskostnader
No full textIn this note, we explore equity share rebalancing using no-trade band rules. We compare rules based on their implications for the behaviour of the equity share, expected returns, turnover and transaction costs.publishedVersio
Targeted Countercyclical Capital Buffers
Get PDFThis paper investigates the effect of broad-based versus sectoral capital requirements using a dynamic model of bank behaviour. We study the problem facing banks when determining their dividend policy and portfolio of long-term loans to the retail and corporate sector. The return on lending is uncertain, and capital requirements may be reduced when loan losses are high, in order to stabilise lending. We find that when shifting capital between sectors is difficult or very costly, targeted regulation, such as a sectoral buffer (SCCyB), can lead to more stable lending during a crisis than a broad-based CCyB, at a lower cost. This depends on the ability of the policymaker to foresee the type of crisis. A targeted requirement is ex-post an inefficient policy if crises occur in sectors where the buffer requirement is inactive, as the targeted policy cannot effectively stabilise credit. However, the consequences of policy "mistakes" depend on the degree of sectoral segmentation in the banking market. Banks that provide credit to both the retail and the corporate sector will endogenously reallocate capital to the constrained sector in a crisis, irrespective of the kind of regulatory buffer that is implemented, thereby dampening the consequences of such inefficient policy.publishedVersio
Etterprøving av Norges Banks anslag for internasjonal økonomi for 2017
Get PDFNorges Banks anslag for den økonomiske utviklingen, både hjemme og hos våre viktigste handelspartnere, er et viktig grunnlag for utformingen av pengepolitikken. Gjennom å etterprøve og analysere våre anslagsfeil kan vi øke forståelsen for økonomiens virkemåte og forbedre våre prognoser. Norges Banks anslag for den økonomiske utviklingen internasjonalt blir derfor etterprøvd med jevne mellomrom. I dette memoet blir det først gitt en kort oversikt over den økonomiske utviklingen globalt i 2017. Deretter blir Norges Banks anslag for 2017 sett opp mot den faktiske utviklingen, og avvikene blir vurdert i lys av historiske anslagsfeil. Videre blir våre anslag sammenlignet med prognoser fra andre sentrale institusjoner internasjonalt. Anslagene for Norge blir etterprøvd i et eget Norges Bank Memo.publishedVersio
The global financial cycle, bank capital flows and monetary policy. Evidence from Norway
Get PDFWe investigate the importance of a global financial cycle for gross capital inflows based on monthly balance sheet data for Norwegian banks. The VIX index has been interpreted as an “investor fear gauge” and associated with a global financial cycle. This index has also been found to impact real activity. We include both a global activity variable and the VIX index in our structural VAR model of capital inflows. We find that when global activity falls, banks’ foreign funding share falls. Our results suggest that global real activity rather than a global financial cycle is a main driver behind the volume of bank capital inflows. We also study domestic monetary policy and implications for capital flows. Domestic monetary policy helps absorb VIX shocks and there is no indication of procyclical (“carry trade”) effects on funding. Monetary policy affects activity and inflation in a standard fashion, and the exchange rate acts as a buffer when shocks hit the economy.publishedVersio