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Pengepolitisk rapport med vurdering av finansiell stabilitet 4/20
Get PDFStyringsrenten fastsettes av Norges Banks komité for pengepolitikk og finansiell stabilitet. Vedtak om renten vil normalt bli truffet i komiteens rentemøter. Komiteen har åtte rentemøter i året. I forbindelse med fire av rentemøtene publiseres også Pengepolitisk rapport. I forkant av publiseringen avholdes flere seminarer og møter der komiteen blir forelagt analyser og drøfter utviklingstrekk, risikobilde og innretning av pengepolitikken. På bakgrunn av analysene og diskusjonen vurderer komiteen den fremtidige renteutviklingen. Endelig vedtak om styringsrenten fattes dagen før rapporten offentliggjøres. Komiteens vurdering av de økonomiske utsiktene og pengepolitikken er gjengitt i «Pengepolitiske vurderinger» i Pengepolitisk rapport.publishedVersio
Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data
Get PDFWe use a novel data set covering all domestic debit card transactions in physical terminals by Norwegian households, to nowcast quarterly Norwegian household consumption. These card payments data are free of sampling errors and are available weekly without delays, providing a valuable early indicator of household spending. To account for mixed-frequency data, we estimate various mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions using predictors sampled at monthly and weekly frequency. We evaluate both point and density forecasting performance over the sample 2011Q4-2020Q1. Our results show that MIDAS regressions with debit card transactions data improve both point and density forecast accuracy over competitive standard benchmark models that use alternative high-frequency predictors. Finally, we illustrate the benefits of using the card payments data by obtaining a timely and relatively accurate now cast of the first quarter of 2020, a quarter characterized by heightened uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic.publishedVersio
Annual address 2020
No full textAddress by Governor Øystein Olsen to the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank and invited guests, 13 February 2020.publishedVersio
Investing responsibly : the 20-year history
No full textIn 20 years, the fund has grown to become the largest single owner in the world’s stock markets. How we exercise our rights and manage our responsibilities as an owner has evolved rapidly. In this publication, we share our experience as an investor in over 9,000 companies.publishedVersio
How does IFRS 9 affect banks’ impairment recognition in bad times?
Get PDFIFRS 9 has changed the way banks recognise credit losses. Under IFRS 9, credit impairment shall be based on more forward-looking assessments by including recognition of expected credit losses. The purpose of this memo is to analyse how IFRS 9 affects the path of Norwegian banks’ credit losses in bad times. We analyse the effects of IFRS 9 by calculating and comparing the paths of banks’ credit losses under IAS 39 and IFRS 9 in the period 2001–2017. Our results suggest that IFRS 9 may increase impairment losses both immediately prior to and during bad times with increased credit risk.publishedVersio
Fertility Cost, Intergenerational Labor Division, and Female Employment
Get PDFChina has set to increase the minimum retirement age, to ease the pressure from pension expenditure and the falling labor supply caused by the aging population. However, policy debates have so far neglected the crucial fact that families in China largely rely on retired grandparents for childcare. Using novel and high-quality survey data, we demonstrate that intrafamily downward labor transfer towards childcare significantly increases young females’ labor force participation rate and their labor income, and such effects do not exist for males. Furthermore, we show that the positive effects from grandparental childcare are higher for better-educated, urban females with younger children. This paper thus reveals a large, hidden cost in the new retirement policy — the reduced feasibility of grandparental support, due to postponed retirements, may crowd out productive labor of young females, — and rationalizes a series of social protection policies to accompany the phase-in of the new retirement scheme.publishedVersio
Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets
Get PDFThis article presents an overview of research on the Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets. We begin by summarizing the institutional features of FX trading and describe how they have evolved since the 1980s. We then explain how these features are represented in microstructure models of FX trading. Next, we describe the links between microstructure and traditional macro exchange-rate models and summarize how these links have been explored in recent empirical research. Finally, we provide a microstructure perspective on two recent areas of interest in exchange-rate economics: the behavior of returns on currency portfolios, and questions of competition and regulation.publishedVersio
En forbedret sammensatt systemisk stressindikator (CISS) for Norge
Get PDFNorges Banks råd om motsyklisk kapitalbuffer baseres på et bredt sett av kvalitativ og kvantitativ informasjon. Det europeiske systemrisikorådet trekker frem at utviklingen i en generell indikator for systemisk stress i det finansielle systemet bør være en del av dette beslutningsgrunnlaget. Den sammensatte systemiske stressindikatoren (CISS) gir et samlet mål på stressnivået i det finansielle systemet og har vist seg som en god indikator for å varsle systemiske bankkriser i samtid eller i nær fremtid. Den kan derfor være en nyttig indikator å inkludere i beslutningsgrunnlaget for motsyklisk kapitalbuffer. CISS for Norge har vært på særlig høye nivåer under internasjonale kriser.publishedVersio
Utviklingen i husholdningenes kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet
Get PDFHusholdningenes kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet kan ha betydning for etterspørselen etter bolig. Vi analyserer kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet ved å sammenstille fordelingen av prisen på omsatte boliger med fordelingen av hvor kostbare boliger husholdningene kan lånefinansiere. Det siste beregnes med utgangspunkt i husholdningenes gjeldsdisponible inntekt, bankenes boliglånsrente, avdrag, samt krav til betjeningsevne. Formue og egenkapital inkluderes ikke. Ved beregning av gjeldsdisponibel inntekt kontrolleres det for utgifter til alminnelig forbruk. For store grupper er kjøpekraften opprettholdt over tid til tross for høyere boligpriser. Kjøpekraft i boligmarkedet varierer med endringer i rente og med vekst i inntekt og boligpriser. I Oslo har kjøpekraften utviklet seg relativt svakt de senere år sammenlignet med andre større byer og landet totalt sett.publishedVersio
Retail Payment Services 2018
Get PDFThe use of payment cards continues to increase. In 2018, the number of transactions using Norwegian payment cards totalled 2.5 billion and the average number of card transactions per inhabitant was 475. The average value of card transactions was NOK 382. Internet payments with cards increased further and now account for 12 percent of all payments with Norwegian cards. The increase in mobile payments was also pronounced, increasing from 91 million in 2017 to 141 million in 2018. A larger share of mobile payments are now directly debited from bank accounts, and most are made via the instant payments infrastructure. Approximately one million instant payments were made in 2017, a figure that had risen to 58 million in 2018. There was a further decline in the use of the cash infrastructure. Between 2017 and 2018, the number of withdrawals from ATMs and points of sale (POS) declined by 13 and 18 percent, respectively. The decline in ATM and POS cash withdrawals is nothing new, but has been particularly pronounced in recent years. Sample-based surveys from Norges Bank indicate that cash is currently used in approximately every tenth payment made by private individuals at points of sale and for person-to-person (P2P) payment transactions.publishedVersio