Norges Banks vitenarkiv
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Norges Banks oppgjørssystem : Årsrapport 2018
Get PDFFormålet med Norges Banks oppgjørssystem (NBO) er å gjennomføre sikre og effektive oppgjør av betalinger mellom banker som har konto i Norges Bank. Årsrapporten omhandler hovedaktiviteter og tiltak for å ivareta formålet.publishedVersio
Skal gjelden ned?
Get PDFTale ved visesentralbanksjef Jon Nicolaisen på Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi 9. april 2019.publishedVersio
Pengepolitisk rapport med vurdering av finansiell stabilitet 3/19
Get PDFPå møtet 11. september 2019 drøftet hovedstyret de økonomiske utsiktene, hovedlinjene i pengepolitikken og behovet for en motsyklisk kapitalbuffer i bankene. På grunnlag av denne drøftingen og en tilråding fra bankens ledelse fattet hovedstyret i møtet 18. september 2019 vedtak om styringsrenten. Hovedstyret vedtok også Norges Banks råd til Finansdepartementet om nivået på den motsykliske kapitalbufferen.publishedVersio
The macroeconomic effects of forward communication
Get PDFThis paper provides an empirical assessment of the power of forward guidance at different horizons, shedding new light on the strength of the “forward guidance puzzle”. Our identification strategy allows us to disentangle the change in future interest rates stemming from deviations from the systematic part of monetary policy (“target” and “forward guidance” shocks) and changes in future interest rates that are due to unanticipated revisions in the central bank’s economic outlook (“information” shocks). This enables us to make a qualitative assessment of the relative importance of forward guidance. We investigate to what extent the horizon of guidance matters for its macroeconomic effects, and find that the more forward the shock is, the weaker is its impact on output and inflation. This runs contrary to the prediction from standard New Keynesian models that the power of forward guidance increases with its horizon.publishedVersio
Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters’ currencies
Get PDFEmpirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether such time-variation could reflect shifts in the key oil price drivers over time. Results suggest that demand- and supply-driven oil price increases strengthen these currencies to different extents. In contrast, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and associated oil price increases go together with a weakening of oil exporters’ currencies. The latter result may explain coincidences of higher oil prices and a weakening of oil exporters’ currencies.publishedVersio
The Saving and Employment Effects of Higher Job Loss Risk
Get PDFIn this paper we use Norwegian tax data and a novel natural experiment to isolate the impact of job loss risk on saving behavior. We find that a one percentage point increase in job loss risk increases liquid savings by roughly 1.2 - 2.0 percent. Further, we show that employment falls in non-tradable industries not directly affected by the shock, also after controlling for intersectoral linkages and lower demand from affected industries, consistent with the household demand channel of recessions.publishedVersio
Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media
Get PDFWe propose a method to quantify narratives from textual data in a structured manner, and identify what we label "narrative monetary policy surprises" as the change in economic media coverage that can be explained by central bank communication accompanying interest rate meetings. Our proposed method is fast and simple, and relies on a Singular Value Decomposition of the different texts and articles coupled with a unit rotation identification scheme. Identifying narrative surprises in central bank communication using this type of data and identification provides surprise measures that are uncorrelated with conventional monetary policy surprises, and, in contrast to such surprises, have a significant effect on subsequent media coverage. In turn, narrative monetary policy surprises lead to macroeconomic responses similar to what recent monetary policy literature associates with the information component of monetary policy communication. Our study highlights the importance of written central bank communication and the role of the media as information intermediaries.publishedVersio
The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects
Get PDFWe analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To do so, we put forward a framework that allows for spillovers between industries and learning by doing (LBD) over time. We identify these spillovers using a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with both state level and country level data. In contrast to previous results, we find considerable changes in the way oil price shocks are transmitted to the U.S economy: there are now positive spillovers to non-oil investment, employment and production from an increase in the oil price - effcts that were not present before the shale oil boom.publishedVersio
Sentralbankvirksomhetens årsrapport 2018
No full textFra 2016 er årsberetningen for sentralbankvirksomheten skilt ut som en egen rapport. Den var tidligere å finne som del tre i årsberetningen. Norges Bank er organisert i to virksomhetsområder: Sentralbankvirksomheten og Norges Banks Investment Management (NBIM). Denne rapporten omhandler Sentralbankvirksomheten og utfyller Norges Banks årsrapport og regnskap 2018..publishedVersio