Norges Banks vitenarkiv
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Gjennomføringen av pengepolitikken
Full text linkSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning til høring om Finansmarkedsmeldingen 2024 i Stortingets finanskomité 7. mai 2024.publishedVersio
The corporate real effects of CIP deviations
Full text linkWe show corporate real effects from Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations exploiting administrative data from Norway as well as CIP deviation shocks. Banks with access to U.S. money markets strongly increase USD global (short-term) funding in response to CIP deviations. This, in turn, leads to higher credit to non-financial firms, with weaker economic effects as banks hoard part of the extra funding as central bank deposits. The higher credit is supply-driven, as we control for firm-time fixed effects and we find higher credit volumes but lower loan interest rates for affected firms (i.e., those with higher pre-shock funding from banks with access to US funds). Loan-level results translate into firm-level bank debt and total debt results. However, corporate real effects are weaker. Despite strong effects on corporate sales (firm output), more affected firms (i.e., with higher credit availability) increase their fixed assets but it is completely driven by an increase in financial fixed assets, not through investment in real assets. Further, more affected firms pay out more dividends to shareholders. Overall, our evidence suggests limits of CIP deviations via banks into long-term real effects of corporations.publishedVersio
Norges Banks balanse
Full text linkForedrag av sentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache på seminar i regi av Senter for monetær økonomi (CME) Handelshøyskolen BI, 17. oktober 2024.publishedVersio
Investorers etterspørsel og prising av statsobligasjoner
No full textWe study how investor demand and composition affect government bond yields. We estimate how investors adjust their holdings when debt levels increase, and how sensitive their demand is to a change in prices. We also show that quantitative tightening by central banks can have a significant impact on yields when investors are price-inelastic.publishedVersio
Styringsrenten holdes i ro
Full text linkSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning på pressekonferanse om rentebeslutningen 20. juni 2024.publishedVersio
Taylor rules with endogenous regimes
Full text linkThe Fed’s policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the Fed chairs, a Bayesian framework is introduced in order to endogenously select timing and number of regimes in a data-driven way. This agnostic approach favors a partitioning of the data based on two regimes related to business cycle phases. Estimated policy rule coefficients differ in two important ways over the two regimes: the degree of gradualism is substantially higher during normal times than in recessionary periods while the output gap coefficient is higher in the recessionary regime than in the normal one. The estimate of the inflation coefficient largely satisfies the Taylor principle in both regimes. The results are substantially reinforced when using real-time data.publishedVersio
The conduct of monetary policy
Full text linkIntroductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the hearing of the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament) in connection with the Storting’s deliberations on the Financial Market Report, 7 May 2024.publishedVersio
Charting the upstream: An indicator for imported input goods prices
Full text linkThis Staff Memo presents an indicator used for monitoring and forecasting inflation at Norges Bank. The indicator is designed to capture international price impulses that impact the input costs of domestic firms. Our analysis indicates that the marked increase in the cost of imported intermediate goods over the last couple of years can account for parts of the rise in Norwegian CPI-inflation in the same period. The results suggest that changes to the price of products at early stages in the production chain can lead to changes in CPI, also making the indicator useful for forecasting.publishedVersio
Responsible innovation in the payment system
Full text linkSpeech by Executive Director Torbjørn Hægeland at Finance Norway’s Payments and Digitalisation Conference, 7 November 2024.publishedVersio