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Monetary Policy Report 4/2024
Full text linkThe monetary policy strategy describes the Committee’s interpretation of the mandate for monetary policy and provides a framework for the Committee’s assessments of the appropriate monetary policy reaction to different shocks. A summary of the strategy is provided here and published in full on Norges Bank’s web pages. Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at its meeting on 18 December. Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025.publishedVersio
Nye mikrodata for misligholdte lån gir bedre anslag for bankenes utlånstap
No full textLån til ikke-finansielle foretak er den største kilden til tap i bankene. For å vurdere kredittrisikoen, har Norges Bank i lang tid benyttet modeller for foretakenes konkurssannsynligheter. Bankenes utlånstap er imidlertid tettere knyttet til foretak som misligholder lånene sine. Lån til foretak som går konkurs, utgjør bare en del av misligholdte lån. Misligholdte lån er derfor sannsynligvis en bedre indikator for tap i bankene enn konkurser. Tilgangen til mikrodata for både utlånstap og mislighold har historisk sett vært begrenset, særlig sammenlignet med datatilgangen for konkurser. Forbedret tilgang til mikrodata for mislighold gjør det mulig for oss å analysere forholdet mellom mislighold og konkurs på mikronivå. Vi finner at det er en sterk sammenheng mellom mislighold og konkurs, men at sammenhengen varierer på tvers av næringer og over analyseperioden. Særlig markerer koronapandemien et skille i denne sammenhengen. Vi bruker innsikten fra analysene til å utvikle en modell som estimerer sannsynligheter for mislighold, og til å anslå nye misligholdte lån fremover. Vi viser til slutt hvordan vi kan bruke denne øvelsen til å forbedre anslag for tap på foretakslån i bankene. Disse anslagene vil inngå som en del av Norges Banks vurdering av kredittrisikoen i det norske banksystemet.publishedVersio
The policy rate is kept unchanged
Full text linkIntroductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the press conference following announcement of the policy rate on 25 January 2024.publishedVersio
Bache: Norges Banks forvaltning av Statens pensjonsfond utland
Full text linkSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache. Innledning til høring om Statens pensjonsfond i Stortingets finanskomité, 30. april 2024.publishedVersio
Structural liquidity: What has driven the historical development and what might occur in the years ahead?
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Det norske finansielle systemet 2024
Full text linkDet Norske Finansielle systemet gir en samlet oversikt over det finansielle systemet i Norge, hvilke oppgaver det utfører, og hvordan disse oppgavene blir løst. Rapporten er ment som et oppslagsverk og en lærebok. Innledningen gir overordnet oversikt over hele det finansielle systemet. Kapittel 1 beskriver de ulike markedene for utstedelse og omsetning av finansielle instrumenter: penge-, obligasjons-, valuta-, og aksjemarkedet og markedene for finansielle derivater. Kapittel 2 omtaler de viktigste finansforetakene: banker, kredittforetak, forsikring- og pensjonsordninger, ulike fond m.m., i tillegg til Norges Bank som selv også er en del av det finansielle systemet. Kapittel 3 beskriver infrastrukturen i det finansielle systemet. Infrastrukturen omfatter betalingssystemet og systemene der betaling og overføring av verdipapirer, valuta og derivater i finansmarkedene skjer.publishedVersio
Quantile combination : an application to US GDP growth forecasts
Full text linkWe propose an easy-to-implement framework for combining quantile forecasts, applied to forecasting GDP growth. Using quantile regressions, our combination scheme assigns weights to individual forecasts from different indicators based on quantile scores. Previous studies suggest distributional variation in forecasting performance of leading indicators: some indicators predict the mean well, while others excel at predicting the tails. Our approach leverages this by assigning different combination weights to various quantiles of the predictive distribution. In an empirical application to forecast US GDP growth using common predictors, forecasts from our quantile combination outperform those from commonly used combination approaches, especially for the tails.publishedVersio
The driving forces behind households’ accumulation of consumer debt
Full text linkIn this Staff Memo we explore the determinants of unsecured consumer debt among Norwegian households using detailed administrative data from 2020 to 2024. We identify a set of key drivers, including life-cycle patterns, labor market shocks, and homeownership transitions. Our findings reveal that younger households, renters, and individuals with limited financial assets are more likely to rely on consumer loans. Homeownership reduces dependence on such debt through access to lower cost credit options, while unemployment increases reliance on unsecured loans for consumption smoothing. Our results highlight the interplay between financial vulnerability, life events, and debt composition, offering policy insights for promoting financial stability and mitigating household debt risks.publishedVersio
The policy rate will likely be kept unchanged to the end of the year
Full text linkIntroductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the press conference following the announcement of the policy rate on 7 November 2024.publishedVersio
Employment trends in Norway
Full text linkThis paper outlines the recently developed method for assessing the trend Level in employment rates adopted by Norges Bank. The approach employs a Bayesian VAR to decompose disaggregated employment data into trend and cyclical components, using quarterly labor market data on 30 demographic sub-groups. Applied to the time period 1984-2019, we show that the estimated trend picks up known historical factors contributing to slow-moving employment dynamics. Additionally, the cyclical employment component shows strong correlation with the output gap estimate for Norway.publishedVersio