Norges Banks vitenarkiv
Not a member yet
2942 research outputs found
Sort by
FinTech, BigTech og krypto – vil ny teknologi gjøre bankene overflødige?
Get PDFTale ved visesentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache.publishedVersio
Forvaltningen av Statens pensjonsfond utland
Get PDFLeder i Norges Bank Investment Management Nicolai Tangen. Innledning til høring om forvaltningen av Statens pensjonsfond utland i Stortingets finanskomité.publishedVersio
Monetary policy strategy - from mandate to decisions
Get PDFSpeech by Governor Øystein Olsen at the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) / BI Norwegian Business School on 20 October 2021.publishedVersio
Underliggende avkastningsdrivere
No full textIn this note, we decompose equity and bond returns into their fundamental drivers based on expected cash flows, inflation, real interest rates and risk premiums.Asset returns are driven by changes to their expected future cash flows and the corresponding discount rates. In this note, we use this idea to identify the fundamental drivers of equity and bond returns based on expected cash flows, expected inflation, real interest rates and asset-specific risk premiums. Certain fundamental drivers are common across equities and bonds, most importantly real interest rates. The level of real interest rates is a key driver of the long-run returns on multi-asset portfolios, in large part due to the long duration of equities. To accurately capture the economic forces driving real rates, our decomposition splits real rates into a transitory component, dominated by the monetary policy cycle, and a persistent component that reflects secular developments in the economy. We use our framework to examine the properties of fundamental drivers of equity and bond returns over the last few decades, where the real rate components have played a significant role. In addition, we highlight the fundamental drivers during 2020 – a year dominated by the global pandemic and the subsequent policy response to it. The large drop in equity prices in the first quarter was caused by both lower cash flow expectations and a sharp increase in the equity risk premium. The fall in equity prices was partly offset by a combination of easier monetary policy and a decline in the persistent component of real rates.publishedVersio
Pengepolitisk rapport med vurdering av finansiell stabilitet 3/21
Get PDFPå møtene 3. og 14. september drøftet komiteen de økonomiske utsiktene, innretningen av pengepolitikken og nivået på bufferkravet. På grunnlag av drøftingene og en anbefaling fra bankens administrasjon fattet komiteen på møtet 22. september vedtak om styringsrenten og nivået på bufferkravet.publishedVersio
Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment 2/21
Get PDFThe policy rate is set by Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee. Policy rate decisions are normally taken at the Committee’s monetary policy meetings. The Committee holds eight monetary policy meetings per year. The Monetary Policy Report is published four times a year in connection with four of the monetary policy meetings. Prior to publication, several seminars and meetings are held at which analyses are presented to the Committee and economic developments, the balance of risks and the monetary policy stance are deliberated. On the basis of the analyses and deliberations, the Committee assesses future interest rate developments. The final policy rate decision is made on the day prior to the publication of the Report. The Committee’s assessment of the economic outlook and monetary policy is presented in “Monetary policy assessment” in the Monetary Policy Report.publishedVersio
Klimaendringer som en finansiell risiko for fondet
No full textClimate risk is already affecting the markets in which the fund is invested. The changes in the climate system are becoming more intense, widespread, and frequent. The long-term economic implications of climate change could be significant. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) addresses risk within a general framework set by the Ministry of Finance. This paper considers climate change as a financial risk to the fund and assesses the results of two approaches to measuring climate risk in investment portfolios – carbon footprint analysis and climate scenario analysis. Carbon footprint analysis has provided us with valuable insights into changes in the carbon-intensity of our equity investments and corresponding benchmark index. Since 2013, the carbon-intensity of the equity portfolio has decreased by 50 percent. Climate scenario analysis can illustrate how emissions trajectories and corresponding financial outcomes effect the portfolio over time. The robustness of these approaches is challenged by incomplete data and methodological limitations. A carbon footprint is based on historical data that may have limited relevance to future risk, while climate scenarios designed to test the sensitivity of investment portfolios typically exclude second- and third-order effects of climate hazards and climate regulation that are difficult to quantify. Overall, climate change is a financial risk to the fund. We will continue to engage with researchers and practitioners and support the further development of approaches to measuring climate risk in the fund.publishedVersio
Myndighetenes støtteordninger under koronapandemien har dempet kredittrisikoen i foretakene
Get PDFEtter at koronapandemien brøt ut, har myndighetene innført en rekke tiltak rettet mot næringslivet. Støtten har i stor grad blitt gitt til de næringene som er hardest rammet av pandemien og smitteverntiltakene. En betydelig andel av bankenes lånekunder i disse næringene har mottatt støtte fra en eller flere ordninger. Det har trolig bidratt til å dempe risikoen for utlånstap i bankene.publishedVersio
Retail payment services 2020
Get PDFThe Covid-19 outbreak that began in spring 2020 has affected payment methods, which the statistics clearly show. The number of card payments made at physical points of sale declined in the period between 2019 and 2020. At the same time, the average value of card payments increased somewhat. Most card payments made at physical payment terminals, about two out of three, were contactless. Reduced travel activity has resulted in a marked decline in the number of payments made with Norwegian cards at physical points of sale abroad. The use of cash at retail outlets has declined, and ATM and POS cash withdrawals have declined substantially. Banks have established a new service for the withdrawal and deposit of cash at grocery shops. Withdrawal figures both for the use of this service, “in-shop cash service”, and for withdrawals over the counter at bank branches have been collected and are presented in this publication. The strong growth in online shopping using cards also continued in 2020. A share of online purchases were made using means other than card payments. According to a survey conducted by Norges Bank, one in four online purchases were initially invoiced and settled afterward. If the invoice is paid with a card, such transactions will also be recorded as online shopping in the statistics. For transfers between private individuals, the use of mobile phones is now by far the most widely used method of payment. As many as four out of five such payments were made using mobile phones, primarily the Vipps mobile payment app. Most of these payments are made as instant payments between accounts, where the funds are available to the payee seconds after the payment is sent.publishedVersio
Distributional effects of monetary policy in Norway
Get PDFWe quantify the short-term effects of both non-systematic and systematic monetary policy on the income and wealth distribution in Norway, and measure the relative importance of the various channels. An expansionary monetary policy shock is found to disproportionally benefit the young as well as households with middle to lower income and wealth, and it reduces inequality in disposable income and wealth. The key channel for disposable income is the savings redistribution channel, whereby households with high debt-to-income ratios gain relatively more from a lower interest rate. Because of the high home ownership rate in Norway, most households gain from higher house prices, but the middle and lower part of the distribution gain relatively more as they are more indebted. We also find that systematic monetary policy, aimed at stabilizing cyclical fluctuations in output and inflation, also tends to stabilize income and wealth inequality.publishedVersio