Norges Banks vitenarkiv
Not a member yet
2942 research outputs found
Sort by
Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment 3/21
Get PDFAt its meetings on 3 and 14 September, the Committee discussed the economic outlook, the monetary policy stance and the countercyclical capital buffer rate. On 22 September, the Committee decided on the policy rate and the buffer rate, on the basis of the deliberations and a recommendation from Norges Bank staff.publishedVersio
Norges Banks likviditetspolitikk: Prinsipper og utforming
Get PDFSentralbankens likviditetspolitikk skal bidra til å nå målene i pengepolitikken, et effektivt betalingssystem og finansiell stabilitet. I dette memoet beskrives prinsippene som ligger bak Norges Banks utforming av virkemidlene i likviditetspolitikken. Virkemidlene omfatter valg av motparter, vilkår for motpartenes innskudd og lån i Norges Bank, utformingen av markedsoperasjoner, kravene til sikkerhet for lån og støtte til enkeltbanker.publishedVersio
Asset purchases as a remedy for the original sin redux
Get PDFWe provide a theory on how a wider foreign lending base of local-currency sovereign debt may lead to destabilising effects (the original sin redux). Bond sell-offs by foreigners induce domestic banks to fund the government, reducing the credit for investment and tightening financial conditions. Currency mismatches exacerbate the ensuing deterioration in financial sector balance sheets, which amplifies the repercussions of the initial shock by prompting private sector capital outflows and larger currency depreciations. We then explore the role of central bank government bond and firm security purchases in countervailing the ramifications of bond sell-offs. Our estimated model reflects the regularities of the representative emerging-market economy that deployed quantitative easing policies during the pandemic. It further offers an explanation to the puzzle of stable exchange-rate dynamics accompanied by a reduction in excess sovereign bond yields and larger room for conventional monetary policy easing. We conclude asset purchases should be large in size to have a persistent effect on financial conditions and are less effective when they de-anchor inflation expectations or pose risks to a consolidated government balance sheet.publishedVersio
Asymmetric monetary policy rules for the euro area and the US
Get PDFWe analyse the implications of asymmetric monetary policy rules by estimating Markovswitching DSGE models for the euro area (EA) and the US. The estimations show that until mid-2014 the ECB's response to inflation was more forceful when inflation was above 2% than below 2%. Since then, the ECB's policy can be characterised as symmetric, and we quantify the macroeconomic implications of this policy change. We uncover asymmetries also in the Fed's policy, which has responded more strongly in times of crisis. We compute an optimal simple rule for the EA and the US in an environment with the effective lower bound and a low neutral real rate, and find that it prescribes a stronger response to inflation and the output gap when inflation is below target compared to when it is above target. We document its stabilisation properties had this optimal rule been implemented over the last two decades.publishedVersio
Evaluation of Norges Bank’s forecasts for 2018 and 2019
Get PDFNorges Bank’s economic forecasts for the Norwegian economy for 2018 and 2019 were close to the mark and the forecast errors were mostly smaller than for the preceding 20 years. The evaluation for 2018 and 2019 indicates that the forecasting system captured the main features of economic developments. The forecast errors from simple models were also smaller than normal.
For some of the variables, there has been a tendency of systematic forecast errors over time. If we look at the period after the oil price collapse in 2014, wage growth, productivity and the exchange rate have shown weaker-than-expected developments. Overall, it would appear that we underestimated the decline in the ability to pay wages in Norway.publishedVersio
Mottakelse av rapport fra Norges Bank Watch
Get PDFVisesentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache, 5. mars 2021.publishedVersio
Årstalen 2021
No full textTale av sentralbanksjef Øystein Olsen til Norges Banks representantskap, torsdag 18. februar 2021.publishedVersio
Symbolic Stationarization of Dynamic Equilibrium Models
Get PDFDynamic equilibrium models are specified to track time series with unit root-like behavior. Thus, unit roots are typically introduced and the optimality conditions adjusted. This step requires tedious algebra and often leads to algebraic mistakes, especially in models with several unit roots. We propose a symbolic algorithm that simplies the step of rendering non-stationary models stationary. It is easy to implement and works when trends are stochastic or deterministic, exogenous or endogenous. Three examples illustrate the mechanics and the properties of the approach. A comparison with existing methods is provided.publishedVersio
Ownership and climate risk in the GPFG – On the tools for addressing climate risk in the fund
Get PDFSpeech by Deputy Governor Øystein Børsum, 21 December 2021.publishedVersio
Digitale penger og realtidsbetalinger – veien videre
Get PDFForedrag av visesentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache på Finans Norges betalingsformidlingskonferanse 4. november 2021.publishedVersio