Norges Banks vitenarkiv
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Renten holdes trolig i ro en god stund
Full text linkSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning på pressekonferanse om rentebeslutningen 21. mars 2024.publishedVersio
Undersøkelse om kryptoeiendeler i Norge
Full text linkDette memoet presenterer data fra en spørreundersøkelse om den norske befolkningens kjennskap til og eierskap og bruk av kryptoeiendeler. Undersøkelsen ble gjennomført av Norges Bank med hjelp av Ipsos i januar og februar 2024. Dette er første gang Norges Bank gjennomfører en slik undersøkelse. Undersøkelsen er del av Norges Banks arbeid for å få mer kunnskap om betydningen av kryptoeiendeler i Norge. Norges Bank bruker slik kunnskap blant annet for å analysere konsekvenser av kryptoeiendeler for et effektivt og sikkert betalingssystem og finansiell stabilitet.publishedVersio
Mitigating the impact of fuel subsidy removal in an oil-producing emerging economy
Full text linkThis paper examines the implications of fuel subsidy removal in an oil-producing economy, focusing on the central bank’s response to volatile oil prices. Using a Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we analyze the welfare effects of this policy change under different regimes of oil price volatility and monetary policy. Our empirical findings, based on data from Nigeria (2000:2 - 2021:4), reveal time-varying switches in oil price fluctuations and monetary policy adjustments that synchronize with states of high oil price volatility. We also find that subsidy removal has welfare-reducing and heterogenous effects on households, especially when implemented in an environment of heightened volatility. The efficacy of monetary policy in mitigating the impacts of subsidy removal depends on the ability of the central bank to design a flexible framework capable of adapting to economic shifts, while balancing its stabilization objectives. Furthermore, the observed monetary policy switching endogenous to different states of oil price shocks suggests a need for the central banks of oil-producing emerging economies to consider the prospects of a dual-mandate regime.publishedVersio
Banking on deposit relationships: implications for hold-up problems in the loan market
Full text linkTheory suggests that by lending to a firm, inside banks gain an informational advantage over non-lender outside banks. This informational gap hinders borrowers from switching lenders due to a winner’s curse faced by competing outside banks, leading to hold-up problems. In this paper, we show that firms can reduce this informational gap by forming deposit relationships with outside banks, thereby attenuating hold-up. Using unique data on the deposit and lending relationships of all firm-bank pairs in Norway, we find that having a deposit relationship with non-lender outside banks significantly increases a firm’s likelihood of switching lenders. Furthermore, firms that have a prior deposit relationship with new lenders obtain significantly better loan conditions upon switching. In line with informational hold-up theory, these effects are driven by reduced information asymmetries, not cross-selling. Our findings have important implications for open banking and hold-up problems in the loan market.publishedVersio
Bache: Norges Bank’s management of the Government Pension Fund Global
Full text linkIda Wolden Bache, Governor of Norges Bank. Introduction to the public consultation on the Government Pension Fund in the Storting’s Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs on 30 April 2024publishedVersio
Cross-border bank flows, regional household credit booms and bank risk-taking
Full text linkThis paper provides novel micro-level evidence that cross-border bank flows are important for households’ access to credit not only in emerging markets but also in advanced economies. These foreign bank flows can drive local credit credit booms that increase bank risk. We study how the influx of cross-border bank funding that followed the ECB’s implementation of non-conventional monetary policy in 2014/15 impacted lending to households, using supervisory bank-level data alongside householdlevel credit and consumption data from Germany. Regional banks that are highly exposed to fluctuations in foreign capital inflows increase consumer lending to riskier, lower-income households by 50% more than other banks. When deposit inflows from non-euro area banks rise, this induces less capitalized banks to expand their lending on the extensive margin. Improved access to credit enables lower-income customers of exposed banks to increase non-durable consumer spending. Data from a larger group of euro area countries confirm our conclusions.publishedVersio
Home energy conversion can be a net cost for the average household
Full text linkEnergy consumption in homes accounts for over 30 percent of annual Norwegian electricity consumption. The government has set targets to reduce energy consumption in the housing sector. Measures that can increase energy efficiency in the housing sector are both known and available, but they will require significant investment. Based on estimated energy consumption per home, we analyse the ability of Norwegian homeowners to finance stricter energy efficiency requirements without public support. The estimate is based on information about homeowners’ income, debt and wealth and on homes’ estimated current electricity consumption, size and type. We find that around 10 percent of homeowners do not have the financial means to implement the energy efficiency measures required to comply with the requirements. The measures result in lower electricity expenses, but at current interest rates and electricity prices, there is reason to believe that such energy efficiency improvements will be a net cost for the average household. To assess these costs, access to detailed information about a home’s energy consumption is key. If energy efficiency improvements are to be debt-financed, this will increase demand for new loans.publishedVersio
Styringsrenten holdes i ro
Full text linkSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning på pressekonferanse om rentebeslutningen 3. mai 2024.publishedVersio
Foretakenes omstilling til lavere klimagassutslipp og risikoen i norske banker
Full text linkKlimaomstilling vil i en periode kunne øke foretakenes kostnader og redusere verdien av deres eiendeler. Hvis vi legger til grunn at bankenes sammensetning av utlån holdes konstant, kan kostnadsøkningen øke tapene i bankene. Risikoen for økte tap er svært ujevnt fordelt mellom næringer, og økningen vil trolig komme samtidig med at foretakenes behov for finansiering til å redusere utslipp øker.publishedVersio