Norges Banks vitenarkiv
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Prisveksten er for høy
No full textSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning på pressekonferanse om rentebeslutningen 15. desember 2022.publishedVersio
Pengepolitikk og inflasjon
Get PDFForedrag av sentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache på seminar i regi av Senter for monetær økonomi (CME)/Handelshøyskolen BI, 20. oktober 2022.publishedVersio
Norges Bank’s management of the Government Pension Fund Global
Get PDFIntroductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the hearing of the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament)publishedVersio
Rapport fra Norges Bank Watch
Get PDFSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache, 1. mars 2022.
I februar/mars hvert år presenterer Senter for monetær økonomi (CME) en rapport om Norges Banks virksomhet, gjennomført på oppdrag av Finansdepartementet. Et utvalg uavhengige økonomer vurderer Norges Bank sin pengepolitikk. Rapportene fra de årlige utvalgene publiseres av CME i en egen Norges Bank Watch Report Series.publishedVersio
Norges Bank’s management of the Government Pension Fund Global
Get PDFIntroductory statement by CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Nicolai Tangen at the hearing of the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament).publishedVersio
A somewhat faster rise in the policy rate
Get PDFSpeech by Governor Ida Wolden Bache during "Arendalsuka", on the outlook for the Norwegian economy and the policy rate decision.publishedVersio
Gjennomføringen av pengepolitikken
Get PDFSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache holder innledning til høring om Finansmarkedsmeldingen 2022 i Stortingets finanskomité 28. april 2022.publishedVersio
Monetary policy when export revenues drop
Get PDFWe study how monetary policy should respond to shocks which permanently alter the steady state structure of the economy. In such a case monetary policy affects not only the short run misallocations due to nominal rigidities, but also relative prices which stimulate reallocation of capital. We consider a permanent and negative shock to export revenues that requires a larger traded sector and a smaller non-traded sector in the new steady state. This reallocation calls for a change in relative prices during the transition, but may also lead to a period of high unemployment. We show how an appropriate monetary policy could mitigate the welfare costs of the transition by allowing the exchange rate to depreciate, and thereby allowing inflation to increase in the short run. Traditional monetary policy regimes, such as inflation targeting or a fixed exchange rate, would imply high unemployment and inefficiently slow transition. Stabilizing nominal wage growth, in contrast, would be close to the welfare-optimal monetary policy.publishedVersio
The commercial real estate market - no longer a “black box”
Get PDFNorwegian banks’ exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) is substantial. Historically, banks in Norway and in other countries have incurred considerable losses on loans to this sector during financial crises. Publicly available information has been limited. This is partly because CRE is a highly heterogeneous product, and transactions involving commercial buildings are often not recorded in public registers. Norges Bank has recently obtained access to a large sample of data for commercial buildings. We have linked this data set to banks’ mortgages on buildings and estimated the market value of buildings. Our results show that the preponderance of banks’ exposure to CRE is to the office market in cities, particularly in Oslo. On the otherhand, the most expensive office buildings are one of the segments banks are less exposed to. Furthermore, we find that banks are broadly exposed to the CRE market and that individual banks’ exposures to different building types are fairly similar.publishedVersio
Finding DORY
No full textThis paper describes the semi-structural model DORY used by Norges Bank as a link between raw data, sector experts and the core policy model NEMO. While the primary objective in NEMO is to analyse business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy, DORY is used to identify the underlying trends in the main macro variables in Norway. DORY has been gradually developed over the last couple of years and has now been estimated using state of the art Bayesian estimation techniques.publishedVersio