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Gjør høy gjeld husholdningenes konsum mer sensitivt for økonomiske sjokk? En oversikt over empirisk litteratur basert på mikrodata
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Houshold financial saving since the global financial crises
No full textNet lending varies considerably over time and contributed to lower household saving prior to both the banking crisis and Global Financial Crisis (GFC), but to higher household saving during the pandemic. Net lending is defined as transactions in financial assets, such as bank deposits and securities, less changes in debt. After the coronavirus outbreak in 2020, net lending increased considerably for all age and financial wealth groups. The 10 percent wealthiest households accounted for most of the increase. A distinctive feature of the pandemic years is that the shift in net lending occurred mainly due to an accumulation of financial wealth and not due to reduced borrowing. A dichotomy in saving behaviour can be observed in 2021. For younger households and households with lower financial wealth, net lending fell as a share of disposable income, but increased for the other groups.publishedVersio
Unpacking the forward guidance puzzle
Get PDFI prove that in any linearized general equilibrium model with existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, any present response to a future shock always becomes weaker the further away the shock is. There is no forward guidance puzzle in any sensible general equilibrium model if forward guidance is a one-time shock in the future. The difference from the literature arises from the underappreciated preceding peg of interest rate. The standard forward guidance exercise, of a drop in the interest rate in the future with the preceding peg of interest rate, is a series of explosive deviations disguised as a small, one-time shock in the future. I unpack the standard forward guidance exercise in different ways, and show that there is nothing puzzling about the forward guidance puzzle.publishedVersio
Housing bubble scars
Get PDFWe study scar formation and persistence after a house price bubble has burst using data on 3,089 US counties and county equivalents over the period 1980q1–2019q4. We date house price booms and busts for each county, and identify periods with explosive house price developments. Applying a sharp bubble definition to the data, we observe the regularities that the probability of a housing bubble increases when housing supply is inelastic and when access to credit is easy. We differentiate between non-bubble price accelerations and bubble price accelerations, and demonstrate that there is scar formation after the latter. Conditioning on a set of factors, including county-fixed effects, our results show that house price reductions are larger and macro aggregate responses are stronger in areas in which there was a house price bubble. In particular, areas that experience a housing bubble burst are areas in which, subsequently, there are stronger and longer increases in unemployment and decreases in household income.publishedVersio
Quantifying macroeconomic uncertainty in Norway
Get PDFThis paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the uncertainty forecasts. This approach helps provide deeper insights into the macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding forecasts than more traditional time-series models, where uncertainty is usually symmetric and with limited time-variation. Formal tests, such as the log score and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), show that using informative indicators tend to improve density forecasts, particularity in the medium run.publishedVersio
The conduct of monetary policy
Get PDFIntroductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the hearing of the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs of the Storting (Norwegian parliament) in connection with the Storting’s deliberations on the Financial Market Report, 9 May 2023.publishedVersio
The policy rate has been raised to bring down inflation
Get PDFIntroductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at press conference following announcement of the policy rate on 4 May 2023.publishedVersio
Norges Banks oppgjørssystem : Årsrapport 2022
Get PDFFormålet med Norges Banks oppgjørssystem (NBO) er å gjennomføre sikre og effektive oppgjør av betalinger mellom banker som har konto i Norges Bank. Årsrapporten omhandler hovedaktiviteter og tiltak for å ivareta formålet.publishedVersio
Finansiell stabilitet 2023 - 1. halvår
Get PDFI den halvårlige rapporten Finansiell stabilitet vurderer Norges Bank utsiktene for finansiell stabilitet. Rapporten drøfter sykliske og strukturelle utviklingstrekk i finansmarkedene, norsk økonomi, banker og andre finansforetak. Sårbarheter, risiko og motstandskraft i det finansielle systemet legges til grunn ved vurdering av motsyklisk kapital buffer og andre anbefalinger om tiltak som kan bidra til finansiell stabilitet. I rapporten Finansiell infrastruktur vurderer Norges Bank sårbarhet og risiko i den finansielle infrastrukturen. Rapporten Det norske finansielle systemet gir en samlet oversikt over det finansielle systemet i Norge, dets oppgaver og hvordan disse oppgavene blir utført. Norges Banks komité for pengepolitikk og finansiell stabilitet drøftet innholdet i rapporten Finansiell stabilitet 2023 –1. halvår på seminarer og møter 31. mars, 25. april og 3. mai 2023publishedVersio
