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Annual address 2023
No full textAnnual address by Governor Ida Wolden Bache to the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank. Thursday 16 February 2023.publishedVersio
Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics
Get PDFAn apparent disconnect has taken place between inflation and economic activity in the US over the last 25 years, with price inflation remaining remarkably stable in spite of large fluctuations in the output gap and other measures of economic slack. This observation has led some to believe that the Phillips curve–a summary measure of aggregate supply–has flattened. We argue that this view may be premature and put forward a few, simple arithmetics which give rise to testable implications for demand and supply curve slopes. Equipped with New Keynesian theory and estimated SVAR models, we decompose the unconditional variation in US macro data into the components driven by demand and supply disturbances, and confront the inflation disconnect with our simple arithmetics. This exercise reveals a relatively stable supply curve slope once shocks to supply have been properly accounted for. The demand curve, instead, has flattened substantially in recent decades. Our results are at odds with a decline in the Phillips curve slope, but fully consistent with a shift towards a more firm monetary policy commitment to inflation stability.publishedVersio
Monetary Policy Report 1/2023
Get PDFAt its meetings on 7 March, 14 March and 17 March 2023, the Committee discussed the economic outlook and the monetary policy stance. On 22 March, the Committee decided on the policy rate, on the basis of the deliberations and a recommendation from Norges Bank staff.publishedVersio
Pengepolitisk rapport 4/2023
Get PDFPå møtene 28. november og 5. og 11. desember 2023 drøftet komiteen de økonomiske utsiktene og inn retningen av pengepolitikken. På grunnlag av drøftingene og en anbefaling fra bankens administrasjon fattet komiteen på møtet 13. desember vedtak om styringsrenten. Norges Bank Pengepolitisk rapport 4/2023 4 Den pengepolitiske strategien beskriver hvordan komiteen tolker mandatet for pengepolitikken og gir en ramme for komiteens vurderinger av hvordan pengepolitikken vil innrettes i møte med ulike forstyrrelser. Strategien oppsummeres her og er publisert i sin helhet på Norges Banks nettsider.publishedVersio
Financial Stability Report – 2023 H2
Get PDFIn its bi-annual Financial Stability Report, Norges Bank discusses devel opments in financial markets, the Norwegian economy, banks and other
financial institutions and assesses the financial stability outlook. The
Report for H1 emphasises analyses of financial institutions, including a
stress test of the banking sector. In H2, emphasis will normally be on anal yses of households and firms. Assessments of the countercyclical capital
buffer and other recommendations for measures to safeguard financial
stability are made on the basis of the assessments and analyses in the
Report. In the Financial Infrastructure Report, Norges Bank assesses
vulnerabilities and risks in the financial infrastructure. The report
Norway’s financial system provides a comprehensive overview of
Norway’s financial system, its tasks and the performance of these tasks.
Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee
discussed the contents of Financial Stability Report 2023 H2 at seminars
and meetings on 29 September, 24 October and 1 November 2023.publishedVersio
Næringseiendomsforetakenes refinansiering og kontantstrømmer i moderne dyrtid
Get PDFNorske banker har betydelig eksponering mot næringseiendom, og utviklingen i næringen er viktig for finansiell stabilitet. Økte finansieringskostnader, fallende næringseiendomspriser og mye obligasjonsgjeld som forfaller i årene fremover har økt refinansieringsrisikoen i næringseiendom det siste året. Vi bruker et bredt sett av informasjonskilder for å vurdere næringseiendomsforetakenes refinansieringsrisiko og deres evne til å møte økte finansieringskostnader. Den kraftige veksten i næringseiendomsforetakenes obligasjonsgjeld det siste tiåret har bidratt til å spre risiko fra bankene til flere aktører i det finansielle systemet. Samtidig kan obligasjonsgjeld være en mindre stabil finansieringskilde enn bankgjeld i urolige tider. Vi finner at bankene har beskjeden eksponering mot næringseiendomskonsern med forhøyet refinansieringsrisiko i obligasjonsmarkedet og med svakest solditiet. Høy leieprisvekst de siste par årene og KPI-indeksering av kontorleiekontrakter gir mange næringseiendomsforetak robusthet mot økte renter og økte kredittpåslag. Ved et økonomisk tilbakeslag kan imidlertid leieinntektsutviklingen bli svak.publishedVersio
The role of the krone exchange rate under flexible inflation targeting
Get PDFSpeech by Ole Christian Bech-Moen, Executive Director of Monetary Policy, at the Foreign Exchange Seminar of the Association of Norwegian Economists on 2 February 2023.publishedVersio
Retail payment services 2022
Get PDFNorway is one of the countries in the world with the highest annual use of payment cards per inhabitant. On average, each Norwegian used a card 531 times in 2022. In 2022, 86 percent of payments made at physical payment terminals were contactless. The vast majority of these payments were made with physical cards. Even though the number of payments using mobile phones, watches or wristbands has multiplied over the past two years, they still only account for approximately 6 percent of contactless payments at physical payment terminals and about 4 percent of all payments at physical payment terminals. For several years, card use for online purchases has risen sharply. Card use abroad and the use of different mobile payment apps at physical points of sale (POS) has also recently shown a sharp increase. This has contributed to an increase in the market share of international cards because only they can be used in such payment situations. In 2022, international cards accounted for 43 percent of card payments, up from 37 percent in 2021. Cash use has fallen over a long period but has remained stable in most recent years. Norges Bank’s latest survey shows that 3 percent of survey participants used cash in their most recent payments at physical points of sale. Despite low cash use, demand for cash has increased over the past year. For the first time in a long time, the number of ATM and POS withdrawals edged up.publishedVersio
Vi hever renten for å dempe prisveksten
Get PDFSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning på pressekonferanse om rentebeslutningen 14. desember 2023.publishedVersio
Monetary Policy Report 3/2023
Get PDFThe policy rate is set by Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee. Policy rate decisions are taken at the Committee’s monetary policy meetings. The Committee normally holds eight monetary policy meetings per year. The Monetary Policy Report is published four times a year in connection with four of the monetary policy meetings. Prior to publication, several seminars and meetings are held at which analyses are presented to the Committee, and economic developments, the balance of risks and the monetary policy stance are deliberated. On the basis of the analyses and deliberations, the Committee assesses future interest rate developments. The final policy rate decision is made on the day prior to the publication of the Report. In connection with the monetary policy meetings without a Report, the Committee ordinarily meets twice. The Committee’s assessment of the economic outlook and monetary policy is presented in “Monetary policy assessment”.
At its meetings on 5 and 12 September 2023, the Committee discussed the economic outlook and the monetary policy stance. On 20 September, the Committee decided on the policy rate, on the basis of the deliberations and a recommendation from Norges Bank staff. he Bank’s monetary policy strategy describes the Committee’s interpretation of the monetary policy mandate and provides a framework for the Committee’s assessment of how monetary policy will respond to different shocks