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Trade conflicts and credit supply spillovers : Evidence from the Nobel Peace Prize trade shock
Get PDFIn this paper, we examine how a trade conflict’s impact on the real economy can be amplified by financial intermediaries. After China’s implicit ban on the imports of Norwegian salmon in response to the decision on 2010 Nobel Peace Prize, we find that banks that are highly exposed to the salmon industry cut back lending to non-salmon firms and households by 3-6 percent more than other banks. Furthermore, we find that the reduction in lending was not driven by the erosion of bank capital, but rather by the shift in expectations about the performance of loans to salmon producers, which drove highly exposed banks to increase their loan loss provisions and reduce risk-taking.publishedVersio
Report from Norges Bank Watch
Get PDFRemarks by Pål Longva, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, 1 March 2023.publishedVersio
The housing Phillips curve and momentum in the Norwegian housing market
Get PDFThis paper provides descriptive evidence for a housing Phillips curve in Norway, suggesting a negative relationship between the ratio of inventory-to-sales and subsequent house price growth in the market for existing homes. We show that the negative relationship between inventory-to-sales and house price growth in Norway only holds at short horizons, consistent with short-term momentum in the Norwegian housing market. This is in contrast to the U.S. housing market, where the Phillips curve relationship and momentum effects persist over longer horizons. We also examine heterogeneity in the housing Phillips curve and momentum across Norwegian local housing markets and find that the housing Phillips curve is stronger in larger cities. Overall, our findings imply that the Norwegian housing market is less frictional than the U.S. housing market, with homes selling faster on average and house prices responding faster to shocks.publishedVersio
Rapport fra Norges Bank Watch 2023
Get PDFInnlegg ved visesentralbanksjef Pål Longva, 1. mars 2023.publishedVersio
Har strukturell likviditet større påvirkning på Nibor-påslaget enn tidligere?
Get PDFDe senere årene har likviditetspremien på å bytte til seg kroner mot dollar, den såkalte OIS-basisen, utgjort en større andel av Nibor-påslaget enn tidligere. Flere har pekt på lav strukturell likviditet og bankers tilpasning til likviditetskrav (LCR) som årsaken. I dette Staff memoet estimerer vi i hvilken grad disse faktorene har påvirket denne likviditetspremien, og om dette har endret seg over tid. Resultatene indikerer at sammenhengen mellom strukturell likviditet og OIS-basisen har blitt sterkere, men at oppgangen i OIS-basisen de siste årene også skyldes lavt nivå på strukturell likviditet.publishedVersio
Estimering av terminpremien på norske statsobligasjoner
No full textTerminpremien på statsobligasjoner har vært anslått å være lav de siste årene. Det har bidratt til at merkostnaden ved å låne langsiktig har vært relativ liten. Det siste året har terminpremiene økt noe igjen. Dette memoet dokumenterer og diskuterer modellen i Adrian, Crump & Moench (2013) som vi benytter for å vurdere utviklingen i terminpremien på norske statsrenter.Terminpremien på statsobligasjoner har vært anslått å være lav de siste årene. Det har bidratt til at merkostnaden ved å låne langsiktig har vært relativ liten. Det siste året har terminpremiene økt noe igjen.publishedVersio
Does high debt make households more vulnerable? : A survey of empirical literature using microdata
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CRE firms' refinancing and cash flows at a time of high inflation
Get PDFNorwegian banks have substantial exposures to commercial real estate (CRE), and developments in the industry are important for financial stability. Higher financing costs, falling CRE prices and a large amount of bond debt maturing in the coming years have increased the refinancing risk associated with CRE over the past year. We use a broad set of data sources to assess CRE firms’ refinancing risk and their capacity to absorb higher financing costs. The strong growth in CRE firms’ bond debt over the past decade has contributed to spreading risk from banks to other financial operators. At the same time, bond debt can be a less stable funding source than bank debt in turbulent times. We find that banks have modest exposures to CRE groups with elevated refinancing risk in the bond market and those with the weakest financial strength. The rapid rise in rents over the past few years and CPI-indexing of office leases make many CRE firms robust against higher interest rates and credit premiums. In the event of an economic downturn, however, developments in renteal income may fall.publishedVersio
Match quality and house price dispersion: evidence from Norwegian housing auctions
Get PDFAssessing the quantitative relevance of match quality and search frictions for house price dispersion is key to understanding house price formation and the importance of uninsurable housing wealth shocks. In this paper, we use a unique auction-level data set from Norway, combined with a structural model of the housing transaction process that includes frictional arrival and endogenous entry of buyers into bidding, as well as information frictions between buyers and sellers, to determine the importance of buyer taste heterogeneity for house prices and price dispersion. We find that quality differences matter greatly for house price dispersion, well beyond what hedonic pricing models may suggest, while buyer taste heterogeneity accounts for the majority of the remaining price dispersion. Our structural model implies that list prices often deviate substantially from seller valuations, lending support to theories of list price determination that feature Strategic interactions between sellers/agents and buyers.publishedVersio
Gjennomføringen av pengepolitikken
Get PDFSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache holder innledning til høring om Finansmarkedsmeldingen 2023 i Stortingets finanskomité 9. mai 2023.publishedVersio