Norges Banks vitenarkiv
Not a member yet
2942 research outputs found
Sort by
A SMARTer way to forecast
Get PDFIn this paper we describe the newly developed System for Model Analysis in Real Time (SMART) used for forecasting and model analysis in Norges Bank. While the long-term goal is to include all empirical models used in forecasting in Norges Bank, the emphasis in this paper will be on the empirical model systems for inflation and GDP. SMART builds on Norges Bank’s previous System for Averaging short-term Models (SAM), but with greater flexibility and a richer set of models. In addition, SMART contains a real-time database with a wide-ranging set of historical data, forecasts from empirical models, Norges Bank’s forecasts from Monetary Policy Reports (MPR) and forecasts from other institutions (e.g. Statistics Norway). Overall, SMART seems to provide good forecasts and will be a useful tool in the monetary policy process.publishedVersio
Norwegian banks’ net interest income and macroeconomic developments over the past 30 years
Get PDFBanks’ profitability is their first line of defence against losses, and net interest income is banks’ main source of revenue. Since the policy rate hikes began in 2021, net interest income has increased substantially relative to assets, strengthening banks’ loss-absorbing capacity. We use a VAR model to analyse what has affected Norwegian banks’ net interest income relative to assets over the past 30 years. Historically, a higher policy rate has typically pulled up net interest income, while heightened market uncertainty has pulled down net interest income. In addition to the policy rate, cost-efficiency improvements help explain the substantial reduction in net interest income relative to assets observed since the 1990s. The increase during 2022 is largely caused by policy rate hikes from a low level during the pandemic. The increase reflects in part the fact that banks have more interest-bearing assets than interest-bearing debt and other factors such as developments in banks’ interest margins. Using the VAR model, we show that banks’ net interest income is procyclical, which supports the use of time-varying capital requirements.publishedVersio
The interplay between monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy
Get PDFWe develop a theory for the optimal interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. While one might initially think that monetary and fiscal policy should pull in the same direction, we show within a simple model that this is not always the case. If there are small costs of changing the interest rate, it is optimal that monetary policy and fiscal policy pull in opposite directions when the economy is hit by an inflation or exchange rate shock. The reason is that monetary policy affects inflation through both the demand channel and the exchange rate channel, while fiscal policy only affects inflation through the demand channel. Therefore, monetary policy has a comparative advantage in stabilizing inflation, while fiscal policy has a comparative advantage in stabilizing output. Only when the costs of changing the interest rate are sufficiently high will it be optimal for monetary and fiscal policy to pull in the same direction. We also analyse how tax deduction for interest payments affects the monetary policy transmission. Such an interest subsidy improves goal achievement in response to inflation and exchange rate shocks, but the opposite is true in response to demand shocks.publishedVersio
Hva påvirker bankenes førstelinjeforsvar mot tap? Netto renteinntekter og makroøkonomisk utvikling de siste 30 årene
Get PDFBankenes lønnsomhet er førstelinjeforsvaret mot tap og netto renteinntekter er bankenes viktigste inntektskilde. Siden renteoppgangen i 2021 har netto renteinntekter økt betydelig i forhold til eiendelene og det styrker tapståleevnen til bankene. Vi bruker en VAR-modell til å analysere hva som har påvirket norske bankers netto renteinntekter relativt til eiendelene de siste 30 årene. Historisk har høyere styringsrente typisk trukket netto renteinntekter opp, mens økt markedsusikkerhet har trukket netto renteinntekter ned. I tillegg til styringsrenten bidrar kostnadseffektivisering til å forklare den betydelige reduksjonen i netto renteinntekter i forhold til eiendelene som vi har observert siden 1990-tallet. Økningen i løpet av 2022 skyldes i stor grad hevinger i styringsrenten fra et lavt nivå under pandemien. Økningen henger blant annet sammen med at bankene har mer rentebærende eiendeler enn rentebærende gjeld og andre faktorer som utviklingen i bankenes rentemarginer. Ved hjelp av VAR-modellen viser vi at bankenes førstelinjeforsvar beveger seg medsyklisk, noe som understøtter bruken av tidsvarierende kapitalkrav.publishedVersio
Does structural liquidity have a greater impact on the Nibor premium than earlier?
Get PDFIn recent years, the liquidity premium between the Norwegian krone (NOK) and the US dollar (USD) in the FX swap market, the so-called OIS basis, has accounted for a larger share of the Nibor premium than earlier. This has been attributed by several to low structural liquidity and banks' adaptation to liquidity requirements (LCR). In this Staff Memo, we estimate the extent to which these factors have affected this liquidity premium, and whether this has changed over time. The results indicate that the relationship between structural liquidity and the OIS basis has become stronger, but that the increase in the OIS basis in recent years is also due to a low level of structural liquidity.publishedVersio
Husholdningenes finansielle sparing siden finanskrisen
Get PDFNettofinansinvesteringene varierer mye over tid og trakk husholdningenes sparing ned før bankkrisen og finanskrisen, men opp under pandemien. Nettofinansinvesteringer er transaksjonene i finansobjekter, som bankinnskudd og aksjer, fratrukket endring i gjeld. Etter koronautbruddet i 2020 økte de mye i alle alders- og finansformuesgrupper. De ti prosent rikeste sto for mesteparten av økningen. Et særtrekk ved pandemien er at omslaget i nettofinansinvesteringene hovedsakelig skjedde som følge av oppbygging av finansformue og ikke redusert gjeldsopptak. I 2021 finner vi en todeling av spareadferden. For de unge og de med lavere finansformue falt nettofinansinvesteringene som andel av disponibel inntekt, men de økte for de andre.publishedVersio
Uroen i det norske pengemarkedet høsten 2022
Get PDFEn rekordstor innbetaling av petroleumsskatt i oktober 2022, og medfølgende fall i strukturell likviditet, ga en markert oppgang i de helt korte norske pengemarkedsrentene. I dette notatet beskriver vi hvordan innbetaling av petroleumsskatt påvirker likviditeten i banksystemet og drøfter hvorfor pengemarkedsrentene økte mye, selv om Norges Bank tilbød en rekke F-lån til bankene. Data fra Norges Banks Pengemarkedsrapportering (RPD) viser at det var utenlandske banker uten tilgang til Norges Banks markedsoperasjoner som lånte kroner til svært høye renter i valutabyttemarkedet. Regulatoriske krav og interne retningslinjer knyttet til likviditets- og kapitaldekning begrenset hvor mye bankene kunne låne fra Norges Bank, og var en viktig faktor bak oppgangen i pengemarkedsrentene.publishedVersio
Monetary Policy Report 4/2023
Get PDFAt its meetings on 28 November and 5 and 11 December 2023, the Committee discussed the economic outlook
and the monetary policy stance. Norges Bank’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee decided to raise the policy rate from 4.25% to 4.5% at its meeting on 13 December. Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook and the balance of risks, the policy rate will likely be kept at that level for some time ahead.
The policy rate is set by Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee. Policy rate decisions
are taken at the Committee’s monetary policy meetings. The Committee normally holds eight monetary policy
meetings per year. The Monetary Policy Report is published four times a year in connection with four of the
monetary policy meetings. Prior to publication, several seminars and meetings are held at which analyses are
presented to the Committee, and economic developments, the balance of risks and the monetary policy stance
are deliberated. On the basis of the analyses and deliberations, the Committee assesses future interest rate
developments. The final policy rate decision is made on the day prior to the publication of the Report. In
connection with the monetary policy meetings without a Report, the Committee ordinarily meets twice. The
Committee’s assessment of the economic outlook and monetary policy is presented in “Monetary policy
assessment”publishedVersio
Norges Banks forvaltning av Statens pensjonsfond utland
Get PDFSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Bache. Innledning til høring om Statens pensjonsfond i Stortingets finanskomité 18. april 2023.publishedVersio
