TØI Vitenarkiv
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The Impact of Changed Structural Conditions on Regional Sustainable Mobility Planning in Norway
Get PDFA primary impediment in achieving sustainable mobility objectives is the multi-level and cross-sectoral nature of land-use and transport planning. This paper investigates whether changes in structural conditions have affected the ability of Norwegian regional authorities to succeed in sustainable mobility planning. The effects of the changes were minor, as the national government acted in ways that undermined the power of regional authorities. By analysing the fine-grained inter-agency dynamics, this study contributes richer and more nuanced theoretical understandings of the challenges involved in sustainable transport planning. The new insights could assist discussions in many countries on how land-use and transport planning can be organized to facilitate more sustainable mobility patterns.acceptedVersio
What Factors Affect Cross-Modal Substitution - Evidences from the Oslo Area
Get PDFThe vast majority of studies on urban travel demand focus on the effect on the demand of one travel mode given a change in the characteristics of that same transport mode, for example, own-elasticities. comparatively little is known about cross-elasticities of demand. In particular, there is a need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of modal substitution, that is a better understanding of cross-modal diversion factors (Dfs) defined as the proportion of people who leave mode a and switch to mode b. The purpose of this article is to investigate what factors explain variations in Dfs across transport modes, submarkets and policy measures. using a recently developed empirical travel mode choice model for the Oslo area, we simulate over 10,000 different Dfs by systematically changing the underlying transport modes, submarkets and policies (size, direction and type of change). With descriptive statistics, we show how the Dfs vary on a general level. most results are immediately intuitive, for example that car drivers mostly substitute to walk for short-distance trips but that those Dfs diminish rapidly with increasing distance. Interestingly, we find rather high Dfs across different forms of public transportation. With successive regression analyses we show that the number of available alternatives and relative market shares significantly affect Dfs.acceptedVersio
Safety culture, working conditions and personal injuries in Norwegian maritime transport
Get PDFThe aim of the study is to examine the influence of safety culture and working conditions on personal injuries and risk perception on vessels sailing along the coast of Norway (mostly bulk, well and general cargo). The study employs three methods: small-scale survey (N = 180) to crewmembers, reference group meeting and qualitative interviews with sector experts (N = 10). Results indicate that organisational safety culture, manning level on board, work pressure and demanding working conditions are closely related, and that these factors influence injuries and risk perception on the studied vessels. Analyses indicate that lower manning levels induce higher work pressure, which negatively influences safety culture. Respondents on vessels with lower manning levels (3–4 people) score lower on many of the key variables of the study: they experience more personal injuries, experience more stress, and rate the safety culture as lower than respondents on other vessels. It is not examined whether manning levels are too low. The safety challenges of vessels with lower manning levels are probably due to framework conditions (e.g. economy, competition). Future research should examine how to improve working conditions and safety culture on these vessels, given the current manning levels and framework conditions.acceptedVersio
Road safety effects of roundabouts: A meta-analysis
Get PDFThis paper presents a meta-analysis of the road safety effects of converting junctions to roundabouts. 44 studies containing a total of 154 estimates of effect were included. Based on a meta-regression analysis, converting junctions to roundabouts is associated with a reduction of fatal accidents of about 65% and a reduction of injury accidents of about 40%. The mean effect on property-damage-only accidents is ambiguous. Summary estimates of effect are robust for fatal and injury accidents, but vary depending on the model of meta-analysis and the treatment of outlying data points for property-damage-only accidents. A trim-and-fill analysis suggests a weak tendency for publication bias, with modest influence on summary estimates of effect. It is concluded that roundabouts are very effective in reducing traffic fatalities.acceptedVersio
Effects of a penalty point system on traffic violations
Get PDFWe analysed data from the Norwegian driver’s licence penalty point register over a three-year period, in order to investigate whether the number of incurred penalty points in a given time period can predict the probability of incurring additional points in the subsequent period. Data for all category B drivers without penalty points at the start of the study period were included in the analyses. Norway’s penalty point system implies that speeding and various other traffic violations result in two or three penalty points for full-license drivers and four or six points for probationary-license drivers. Eight points within a three-year period results in a six-month disqualification. Two hypotheses were formulated: 1) A “driving style effect” implying that drivers with previous penalty points have a higher probability of incurring new points than drivers without previous points; and 2) a “deterrence effect” implying that drivers with more than four points have a reduced probability of incurring new points, due to impending risk of license revocation. Results showed an inverted U-shaped relationship between number of penalty points incurred during a one-year period and the number of additional penalty points incurred in the subsequent year, with the highest number for drivers with four previous points. Thus, both hypotheses were clearly supported, and it is concluded that the penalty point system has a significant deterring effect for drivers who are at high risk of losing their license at the next infraction.acceptedVersio
How did the economic recession (2008–2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?
Get PDFThis paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail.submittedVersio
Internationalisation in Road Transport of Goods in Norway: Safety Outcomes, Risk Factors and Policy Implications
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Effect of Price Reduction and Increased Service Frequency on Public Transport Travel
Get PDFA random effects meta-analysis of the results from 15 projects involving price reduction and 9 projects involving increased service frequency showed that both price reduction and increased service frequency generated public transport travels. On average, the increased service frequency projects generated more travels by public transport than the price reduction projects. In the increased service frequency projects the proportion of travels generated by the increased frequency was strongly influenced by the size of the frequency increase. In the price reduction projects, we did not find a significant effect of the size of the price reduction on the proportion of travels generated by the price reduction. Finding that people’s use of public transport was related to the extent of the service offered suggests they have a need for transport that can be fulfilled with public transport. Although people appreciate lower fares in general, finding that use of public transport was not significantly related to the size of a price change suggests the effect of price change is uncertain.Effect of Price Reduction and Increased Service Frequency on Public Transport TravelpublishedVersio
Explaining prejudice toward the mentally ill: A test of sociopolitical, demographic, and socioeconomic factors
No full textPeople with mental disorders often face prejudices that can further deteriorate their condition. We tested whether Social Dominance Orientation (SDO), Right‐Wing Authoritarianism (RWA), and Belief in a Just World (BJW), and characteristics of the mentally ill predict such prejudices. Both in a general population sample and a sample of health professionals and trainees, SDO, but not RWA and BJW, predicted more prejudice, although this pattern was less pronounced among health professionals/trainees. BJW interacted with the targets' gender in Study 1, predicting less empathy toward a male but not toward a female mentally ill person. In Study 2, depressed individuals were blamed more for their illness than those with schizophrenia or cancer. Implications for future research and clinical practice are discussed.submittedVersio