TØI Vitenarkiv
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Infrastructure investments to promote sustainable regions
Get PDFTransport infrastructure is often used as an instrument to reach political objectives. One such objective is to promote robust and sustainable regions. A sustainable region is often defined as a region with positive population growth. The implied mechanism between infrastructure and population growth is that infrastructure investments enlarge regions so that the labour markets increase in size. Larger regions provide a better foundation for attractive industries, leading to more jobs, influx of labour and population growth. Alternatively, and closely related, that improved infrastructure gives regions improved accessibility, and that this allow industry to remain in the region even though distance and uncertainties in transport provide pressure to relocate to regions that are more central.
Our discussion and findings are based on quantitative analyses of Norwegian regions using register data on population, industry, commuting, road infrastructure and access to services of general interests (SGI). We supplement these data with data on commuting from the latest Norwegian travel survey. Our research draws on insights from a project conducted by the authors for the Norwegian National Transport Plan.
The paper concludes by pointing at critical sizes and distances a typical labour market must reach in order to be sustainable in terms of population growth. We also point at the implications this gives for different kind of infrastructure investments. In particular, we discuss the threshold limit, suggesting that regions with more than 10 000 employees achieve positive population development. We also find that the qualitative improvements in the attractiveness of a region, in terms of variety of services, improves markedly for region sizes between 5 000 and 10 000 employees. This suggests that; if the objective is to maintain the population in a region or to achieve population growth; it is more important to invest in infrastructure, which increases the size of small regions rather than increasing the size of mid-sized and large regions. This results in different priorities from those usually reached by using cost benefit analyses. Which typically give higher priority to infrastructure projects in the largest regions.publishedVersio
Work place location, transport and urban competitiveness: The Oslo case
Get PDFThis paper examines where firms and industries locate in the Oslo region, how this relate to land-use and transport needs and, how the interplay between localisation and transport may have impact on urban competitiveness. It focuses on why some parts of a city region or a city, seems to be more attractive for businesses and people than other parts and, discuss if and how the development can be related to location, proximity and accessibility.
The paper draws on several theoretical approaches and data sources. The analytical framework builds on economic geography, agglomeration and location theory. Data comes from both quantitative and qualitative sources, such as register data on firms and industries, commuting and travel survey data, interviews with industries and policy makers and planners.
The paper discusses some main factors, which may explain the complex relations between urban competitiveness, firm localisation and transport systems. Accessibility and transport system are undoubtedly important for city attractiveness and industrial development and this may vary between industries. An efficient transport system, therefore, is probably necessary but not sufficient for making specific parts of a city attractive for specific industries. Several other location factors related to labour, land, capital, and managerial and technical skills etc., will also shape firm's locations and city attractiveness and competitiveness.publishedVersio
A push to cycling - Exploring the e-bike's role in overcoming barriers to bicycle use with a survey and an intervention study
Get PDFIn Norway, as in many countries, there is a political goal to increase bicycle use. The electric bicycle (e-bike) is a promising tool for achieving this goal, given the hilliness of the country. However, little is yet known about the deterrents of cycling in Norway in general, and in particular how the purchase of an e-bike could be stimulated. In the current study, 5500 respondents from a convenience sample among car owners were asked about their perceptions of bicycling in general, and of e-bikes in particular as well as their willingness to pay (WTP) for an e-bike. Randomly selected participants (N = 66) were given access to an e-bike for a limited time (2 or 4 weeks). A second questionnaire captured the same perceptions and WTP post-intervention. The results were compared with a control group (N = 214). The results showed that those who cycle the least were most interested in buying an e-bike and that prior knowledge of the e-bike corresponded with a higher desire to buy one. Pro-environmental values did not predict interest in e-bikes, neither did norms and attitudes toward cycling. The WTP for an e-bike increased after having experienced the benefits for those who used an e-bike compared to those who did not. Price reduction of the e-bike (e.g. VAT exemption), spread of knowledge among the wider population, and actions to offer an e-bike experience may therefore be effective strategies for further expansion of the e-bike in the transport system and thereby to increase bicycle use in Norway.publishedVersio
Forskning for morgendagens reiseliv
Get PDFFredman, Peter & Haukeland, Jan Vidar (2017). Forskning for morgendagens reiseliv. Praktisk økonomi & finans. 33-2, 233-236, Universitetsforlaget, 1501-0074, https://doi.org/10.18261/issn.1504-2871-2017-02-072016 var et tregt år for norsk økonomi. Reiselivet var unntaket. I forskningsprosjektet BIOTOUR er hovedmålsettingen å utforske nøkkelbetingelser for å videreutvikle det naturbaserte reiselivet. En av sektorene innen reiselivet som vokser raskest, er nemlig den naturbaserte. Denne delen av reiselivet omfatter bedrifter som tilbyr tjenester og produkter til turister som besøker naturområder utenfor sine vanlige omgivelser (der de bor). Verdiskapingen som det naturbaserte reiselivet skaper, varierer. Det som imidlertid er felles for denne sektoren, er at naturen er attraksjonen. Det er til naturen man drar for opplevelser, avkobling, aktiviteter og sosialt fellesskap. Ifølge Innovasjon Norge hadde Preikestolen alene i fjor besøk av nesten 300.000 mennesker. Mens om lag 1000 personer krav- let seg opp på Trolltunga i 2009, var det nesten 90.000 personer i fjor som ville oppleve det spektakulære fjellplatået.Forskning for morgendagens reiselivacceptedVersio
From innovation to penetration: Calculating the energy transition time lag for motor vehicles
No full textTo meet the targets laid down in the Paris agreement and in the European Union's climate policy documents, road vehicle fleets will have to undergo a massive energy transition in the decades ahead. New vehicles acquired need to be distinctly superior to the old vehicles scrapped, in terms of their energy efficiency and/or carbon intensity. To keep track of the process of vehicle fleet renewal and assess its time scale and potential for energy conservation and greenhouse gas mitigation, stock-flow modeling is a useful tool. The bottom-up stock-flow cohort model ensures coherence between the stock in any given year and the annual flows of scrapping, deregistration, new vehicle acquisitions, and second-hand vehicle import and export. It can be constructed from a few years’ segmented data on the vehicle stocks and their annual mileage. As evidenced by our stock-flow model for Norwegian registered vehicles, it may take 5–25 years, in some cases even longer, before innovations affecting the flow of new vehicles have penetrated similarly into the stock. This energy transition time lag would tend to increase with the speed of innovation and with the target level of penetration, but decrease with the velocity of vehicle turnover.acceptedVersio
Empirical speed models for cycling in the Oslo road network
Get PDFKnowing the speed at which a cyclist travels is important in route and mode choice modelling. Empirical evidence suggests that it varies significantly in accordance with—among other things—infrastructure and topology. Despite this, in many network-based transport models cycling speed is constant, making travel distance the predominant variable of cycling behavior. Motivated by the lack of a comprehensive speed model in the literature, we present models for bicycles and e-bikes estimated based on a large-scale collection of GPS data in the Oslo area. In the models, speed on a network link is described as a function of several characteristics of the infrastructure and topology, and differs by user segments such as gender, trip purpose and type of bicycle. Model parameters are estimated with regression models using data from close to 50,000 single cycling trips. The data indicate that, on average, men cycle at a faster rate than women, although the difference is significantly less in the case of e-bikes. There is a non-linear and non-monotonic relationship between speed and gradient, with speed increasing up to a gradient of − 6%, but decreasing thereafter most likely due to safety concerns. Notable is the fact that cycling speed is significantly higher on routes where cyclists and pedestrians have their own dedicated space.acceptedVersio
Exploring factors influencing the strength of the safety-in-numbers effect
Get PDFSeveral studies have found a so-called safety-in-numbers effect for vulnerable road users. This means that when the number of pedestrians or cyclists increases, the number of accidents involving these road users and motor vehicles increases less than in proportion to the number of pedestrians or cyclists. In other words, travel becomes safer for each pedestrian or cyclist the more pedestrians or cyclists there are. This finding is highly consistent, but estimates of the strength of the safety-in-numbers effect vary considerably. This paper shows that the strength of the safety-in-numbers effect is inversely related to the number of pedestrians and cyclists. A stronger safety-in-numbers is found when there are few pedestrians or cyclists than when there are many. This finding is counterintuitive and one would expect the opposite relationship. The relationship between the ratio of the number of motor vehicles to the number of pedestrians or cyclists and the strength of the safety-in-numbers effect is ambiguous. Possible explanations of these tendencies are discussed.submittedVersio
Fatigue in transport: a review of exposure, risks, checks and controls
No full textPhillips, R. O., Kecklund, G., Anund, A., & Sallinen, M. (2017). Fatigue in transport: a review of exposure, risks, checks and controls*. Transport Reviews, 37(6), 742–766. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2017.1349844.
This version has been corrected. Please see Erratum (https://doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2017.1363015).Human fatigue continues to threaten safe transport. There are claims that employers of operators should do more to mitigate the risks, and several regulators are promoting fatigue-risk management in the context of safety management systems (SMS). The current paper reviews fatigue-related risk and exposure factors and control measures for operators of land- and sea-based transport forms. Our review identifies 13 types of measures for the monitoring or control of fatigue risks: optimal staffing; optimal schedule design; optimisation of breaks/naps; monitoring of actual hours worked; optimisation of work content; monitoring and feedback of actual sleep; health screening and treatment; promotion of recovery from work; fitness-for-duty testing; monitoring of fatigue symptoms while operating; control of fatigue while operating; performance monitoring and assistance; and fatigue-proofing. We also identify two systemic measures needed to anchor risk mitigation in SMS: organisational learning and training/other. By structuring monitoring and control measures along Dawson and McCulloch’s [Managing fatigue: It’s about sleep. Sleep Medicine Reviews, 9(5), 365–380] fatigue-risk trajectory, a framework is obtained that acts as a guide for fatigue-risk management by transport employers. To inform transport managers further, evaluations are needed of the effectiveness of individual control measures as well as whole fatigue-risk management interventions.Fatigue in transport: a review of exposure, risks, checks and controlsacceptedVersio
Safety-in-numbers: Estimates based on a sample of pedestrian crossings in Norway
Get PDFSafety-in-numbers denotes the tendency for the risk of accident for each road user to decline as the number of road users increases. Safety-in-numbers implies that a doubling of the number of road users will be associated with less than a doubling of the number of accidents. This paper investigates safety-in-numbers in 239 pedestrian crossings in Oslo and its suburbs. Accident prediction models were fitted by means of negative binomial regression. The models indicate a very strong safety-in-numbers effect. In the final model, the coefficients for traffic volume were 0.05 for motor vehicles, 0.07 for pedestrians and 0.12 for cyclists. The coefficient for motor vehicles implies that the number of accidents is almost independent of the number of motor vehicles. The safety-in-numbers effect found in this paper is stronger than reported in any other study dealing with safety-in-numbers. It should be noted that the model explained only 21% of the systematic variation in the number of accidents. It therefore cannot be ruled out that the results are influenced by omitted variable bias. Any such bias would, however, have to be very large to eliminate the safety-in-numbers effect.submittedVersio