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Who goes electric? The anatomy of electric car ownership in Norway
Get PDFWe describe the anatomy of electric car ownership in Norway, the country with the highest market share of low-emission vehicles, using matched administrative micro data covering the entire population of private car owners. Our results show that socioeconomic characteristics are strong predictors of the car portfolio. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) ownership is increasing in wealth, income and education. While early BEV owners differed from other car owners, over time BEV owners have become more similar to other car owners. We document a strong association between BEV privileges on the travel to work (like toll road exemptions and bus lane access) and BEV ownership. We show that BEV buyers are less likely than other car buyers to sell their old car, but this difference has diminished over time.acceptedVersio
The Norwegian Vehicle Electrification Policy and Its Implicit Price of Carbon
Get PDFThe rapid market uptake of battery and hybrid electric cars in Norway is unparalleled. We examine the fiscal policy instruments behind this development. In essence, the Norwegian policy consists in taxing internal combustion engine vehicles rather than subsidizing electric ones. There are 14 different fiscal incentives in place bearing on vehicles, fuel, or road use. All of them are in some way CO2-differentiated. In the tradition of positive economics, we derive the price of carbon implicit in each policy instrument and in the total package of taxes and subsidies. The price of carbon characterizing the trade-off between conventional and battery electric cars in Norway as of 2019 exceeds 1370 euro per ton of CO2. For light and heavy-duty commercial vehicles the corresponding prices have been conservatively estimated at 640 euro and 200 euro per ton of CO2, respectively. In addition, the penalty incurred by automakers for not meeting their 2020/2021 target under EU Regulation 2019/631 corresponds to a carbon price of the order of 340 euro per ton of CO2. As compared to the price of emission allowances in the European cap-and-trade system, the price of carbon paid by automakers and Norwegian motorists is one or two orders of magnitude higher.publishedVersio
The effect of health benefits on the value of travel time savings in active transport
No full textIntroduction The valuation of travel time savings and the valuation of health effects are crucial in the economic appraisal of infrastructure projects that affect cycling and walking for transport. Current practices treat the two in separate; but if individuals perceive the positive health effects from active transport, then they should also be expected to factor in these benefits in their valuation of time savings. There ought to be a downward-adjusting effect on their valuation of travel time savings. While this is widely acknowledged within transport economics, there is little empirical evidence on how large the effect from health benefits on the value of travel time savings is. Method We have applied two types of choice experiments. The first was a travel mode choice, that enabled a quantification of the effect of cyclist's/pedestrian's motivation for additional physical activity on their valuation of travel time savings. In the second choice experiment, cyclists/pedestrians chose between alternatives that differed in “negative” and “positive” side effects of the physical activity, like sweating and burning calories, as well as differing in travel time. Results Based on the first choice experiment, we find that cyclists/pedestrians motivated by health benefits have significantly lower valuation of travel time savings. From the second choice experiment, we find that the valuation of travel time savings decreases as the levels of positive side effects of physical activity in the choice set increase. Taken together, we estimate the decreasing health-benefit effect on the value of travel time savings in active transport in the range of 20–65 percent. Conclusions The results support the notion that expected health benefits are influencing the decisions to cycle and walk, with a subsequent negative effect on the valuation of travel time savings. Our study offers new evidence on this relationship as well as new methods for quantifying it.publishedVersio
Direct and cross price elasticities of demand for gasoline, diesel, hybrid and battery electric cars: the case of Norway
Get PDFAim: The primary goals of this research is (i) to derive direct and cross demand market response functions for automobile powertrains and their energy carriers and (ii) to assess how CO2 emissions from automobiles depend on vehicle and energy prices. Methods: The market demand for automobiles with differing powertrains is studied by means of a discrete choice model. Statistically precise coefficient estimates are calculated by means of a highly disaggregate data set consisting of virtually all 1.8 million new passenger car transactions in Norway during 2002–2016. Having estimated the model, we derive market response parameters in the form of direct and cross price elasticities of demand for gasoline, diesel, ordinary hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric cars. Results: The own-price elasticity of gasoline driven cars is estimated at −1.08, and those of diesel driven, battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars at –0.99, −1.27 and −1.72, respectively, as of 2016 in Norway. The cross price elasticities of demand for gasoline cars with respect to the price of diesel cars, and vice versa, are estimated at 0.64 and 0.51, while the cross price elasticities of demand for battery electric cars with respect to the prices of gasoline and diesel driven cars come out at 0.36 and 0.48, respectively. A 1 % increase in the price of liquid fuel in general is found to reduce the average type approval rate of CO2 emission from new passenger cars by an estimated 0.19%. Conclusion: Fiscal policy measures affecting the prices of vehicles and fuel have a considerable potential for changing the long term composition of the vehicle fleet and its energy consumption, climate footprint and general environmental impact.publishedVersio
COVID-19 information disorder: six types of harmful information during the pandemic in Europe
Get PDF{Sten Hansson and Kati Orru and Sten Torpan and Asta Bäck and Austeja Kazemekaityte and Sunniva Frislid Meyer and Johanna Ludvigsen and Lucia Savadori and Alessandro Galvagni and Ala Pigrée}, {COVID-19 information disorder: six types of harmful information during the pandemic in Europe}, {Journal of Risk Research}, {24}, {3-4}, {380-393}, {2021}, {Routledge}, {10.1080/13669877.2020.1871058}, { https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1871058}The outbreak of a novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 propelled the creation, transmission, and consumption of false information – unverified claims, misleading statements, false rumours, conspiracy theories, and so on – all around the world. When various official or unofficial sources issue erroneous, misleading or contradicting information during a crisis, people who are exposed to this may behave in ways that cause harm to the health and well-being of themselves or others, e.g., by not taking appropriate risk reducing measures or blaming or harassing vulnerable groups. To work towards a typology of informational content that may increase people’s vulnerability in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, we explored 98 instances of potentially harmful information that spread in six European countries – France, Italy, Norway, Finland, Lithuania, and Estonia – between March and May 2020. We suggest that during the pandemic, exposure to harmful information may have made people more vulnerable in six ways: (1) by discouraging appropriate protective actions against catching/spreading the virus, (2) by promoting the use of false (or harmful) remedies against the virus, (3) by misrepresenting the transmission mechanisms of the virus, (4) by downplaying the risks related to the pandemic, (5) by tricking people into buying fake protection against the virus or into revealing their confidential information, and (6) by victimising the alleged spreaders of the virus by harassment/hate speech. The proposed typology can be used to guide the development of risk communication plans to address each of these information-related vulnerabilities.publishedVersio
Promoting cycling through urban planning and development: a qualitative assessment of bikeability
Get PDFTo increase cycling shares through urban planning and development, planners need sound tools to assess the built environment. This article presents a methodology to qualitatively determine bikeability, the extent to which it is possible and pleasurable to bike in or through a given area. It is a holistic assessment of four categories of built environment characteristics that affect bikeability. An assessment follows an iterative process combining secondary data and registrations from maps, aerial photos and fieldwork. The methodology does not require specialised tools and is applicable to different urban contexts and purposes. Two examples are included to demonstrate possible uses: assessment of existing built environments to establish a knowledge base when developing short- and long-term cycling plans and strategies, and assessment of planned urban transformations for use in planning processes to ensure new urban developments with a high level of bikeability. Possible methodological improvements are identified. Surveys and interviews with cyclists can provide further understandings of local context. Geographical information systems can inform an assessment but require specialist knowledge, better datasets, and more empirical data on cycling and the built environment from various contexts. As new insights emerge, the methodology must be continually updated to remain valid and reliable.publishedVersio
Facilitating adoption of electric buses through policy: Learnings from a trial in Norway
Get PDFLearning from first experiences of battery-electric bus (E-bus) trials is important to facilitate uptake and develop effective public policy. Here we present initial E-bus trials in Oslo and use the case to 1) model total cost of ownership (TCO) of E-buses vs. diesel buses, and 2) discuss challenges, opportunities, and policy implications. Together, this yields a holistic analysis of requirements for speeding up E-bus adoption, spanning operators and policymakers. Results revealed that rapid E-bus roll-out was achieved through successful contract change order use combined with authority support to reduce operator risk. Challenges were encountered surrounding technical issues, climatization energy use and infrastructure establishment in dense urban areas. In addition, urban E-bus TCO is currently high, and since operation is mostly tender controlled with investment costs covered, higher costs must be covered by public budgets. Despite challenges, operators are positive to further E-bus use, suggesting that companies are willing to support innovation when financial risk is low. We expect E-bus operation to become competitive to diesel buses in Oslo by 2025; to facilitate adoption before economic parity, municipalities and transport authorities must continue to play a large role. Further regulation is also urgently needed to facilitate common infrastructure planning and development.publishedVersio
Risk analysis for forecasting cyberattacks against connected and autonomous vehicles
Get PDFMeyer, S.F., Elvik, R. & Johnsson, E. Risk analysis for forecasting cyberattacks against connected and autonomous vehicles. J Transp Secur 14, 227–247 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12198-021-00236-4A security risk analysis was conducted to identify possible cyberattacks against a future transport system consisting of autonomous and connected vehicles. Six scenarios were developed: joyriding, kidnapping, domestic abuse, autopilot manipulation, a large transport accident, and paralysis of the transport system. Even if it were possible to increase the difficulty of conducting such cyberattacks, it might be impossible to eliminate such attacks entirely. Measures that limit the consequences will therefore be necessary. Such measures include safety measures in vehicles to protect their occupants in traffic accidents and measures that make vehicles easier to remove in case they do not function.acceptedVersio
The sharing economy and consumer preferences for environmentally sustainable last mile deliveries
No full textElise Caspersen, Ståle Navrud, The sharing economy and consumer preferences for environmentally sustainable last mile deliveries, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 95, 2021, 102863, ISSN 1361-9209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102863 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920921001656)This paper addresses whether consumers’ environmental attitudes and behavior are reflected in their stated preferences for last mile delivery options for clothing rentals, and whether preferences are heterogenous across groups of respondents in terms of socioeconomic characteristics, income, and environmental attitudes. The analysis relies on data collected through a discrete choice experiment among Norwegian females between 18 and 70 years of age. The key results are: i) females have a negative utility from delivery time, delays, local air pollutants (PM) and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) from last mile deliveries, and a positive utility from information services and ii) females consumers are likely to accept increased delivery time if it implies reduced emissions. The findings are relevant for both urban planners, online retailers, and transport operators as they show that consumers prefer environmentally sustainable last mile delivery options and that other measures than price can incentivize consumers to choose sustainable deliveries.publishedVersio
The development of cycling in european countries since 1990
Get PDFSchepers, P., Helbich, M., Hagenzieker, M., Geus, B. de, Dozza, M., Agerholm, N., Niska, A., Airaksinen, N., Papon, F., Gerike, R., Bjørnskau, T., & Aldred, R. (2021). The development of cycling in European countries since 1990. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 21(2), 41–70. https://doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2021.21.2.5411High pre-World-War-2 modal shares of cycling in European countries sharply decreased during the post-war decades. In the 1990s, European governments introduced policies to increase bicycle use. However, a database or longitudinal study on the development of bicycle use in European countries is lacking. The goal of this paper is to examine to what degree the amount of cycling has increased over the past decades, also in thecontext of potentially competing modes. Distances travelled per capita according to National Travel Surveys have been collected and were aggregated to seven 4-year periods between 1990 and 2017. Multilevel regression analyses on distance travelled per capita by bicycle, on foot, by public transport, and by passenger car were conducted for all countries. Additionally, analyses were conducted for which the 14 countries with data on bicycle use were divided in three groups categorised according to distance cycled per capita at the beginning of the study period. Distance cycled per capita per year ranged from some 30 km to 900 km. The results of all four regression analyses suggested that distance cycled per capita remained fairly constant over the past decades. Germany is an exception with some 150 km per capita more, in relative terms a 50% increase. Geographical variation in development is evidenced by a substantial increase of distance cycled per inhabitant in the capital cities of the countries included in the study. The outcomes suggest distance travelled on foot and by public transport (bus, tram, and metro) also remained fairly constant while the distance travelled by car increased by about 10% during the study period. We did not find indications that cycling substitutes travel on foot, by public transport or by car.publishedVersio