TØI Vitenarkiv
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Cycle-network expansion plan in Oslo: Modeling cost-effectiveness analysis and health equity impact
Get PDFPhysical inactivity is the leading cause of non-communicable diseases, and further research on the cost-effectiveness of interventions that target inactivity is warranted. Socioeconomic status is vital in this process. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a cycle-network expansion plan in Oslo compared to the status quo by income quintiles. We applied a Markov model using a public payer perspective. Health outcomes were measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the prevention of coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and cancer. We measured equity impact by the concentration index and social welfare using the achievement index. We conducted sensitivity analyses. The intervention was generally more costly and more effective than the status quo. Incremental cost per QALY falls with income quintile, ranging from 23,053 per QALY gained in the poorest quintile. The base-case intervention increased health inequality. However, a scenario targeting low-income quintiles reduced inequality and increased social welfare. In conclusion, the cycle-network expansion is likely to be cost-effective, but with equity concerns. If decision makers care about health inequalities, the disadvantaged groups could be targeted to produce more equitable and socially desirable outcomes instead of a uniform intervention across income quintiles.publishedVersio
Commute trips in Norwegian cities: Data combining trip characteristics and revealed mode choice
No full textMost transport mode choice studies rely on subjective responses to hypothetical questions (stated preference), or on revealed preferences. In stated preference studies, trip characteristics are exact, but there is a range of sources of errors and biases in the responses. Revealed preference surveys suffer the opposite: The choice is exact (i.e. observed) but trip attributes are uncertain – and even more uncertain when it comes to transport modes not chosen. Our dataset goes a long way in solving these problems. The data set combines real travel behaviour and mode choice data from the Norwegian National Transport Survey (NTS) with trip characteristics collected from Google maps travel planner. From the NTS, we have extracted all commute trips conducted by either private car or public transport (PT) into ten major cities in Norway with exact origin and destination coordinates. The NTS data also comprises information about age, gender, household, income and car availability. From Google maps, we have extracted trip characteristics for these trips – for both the mode chosen and the mode not chosen. This data includes total travel time, the number of interchanges, wait time, walk time, and in-vehicle time. This data can be used to study how different trip characteristics influence the probability of choosing PT over private car on commute journeys.publishedVersio
Do upfront investments increase cooperation? A laboratory experiment
No full textIn this paper, we experimentally investigate whether decentralized upfront investments increase cooperation in settings where there is no enforcement mechanism and cooperation is not easily sustained voluntarily. Such investments are a cost that individuals incur before deciding whether to cooperate or not, and increase the payoff resulting from the choice to cooperate. We study whether the effect of investments on cooperation depends on the investments being voluntary or mandatory. While cooperation rarely emerges spontaneously when investments are not possible, we show that introducing investment opportunities boosts overall cooperation levels. If investments are low and voluntary, cooperation is lower than when the same investments are mandatory. For high investments, cooperation is not significantly different between the two conditions. This is consistent with low investments being interpreted as a signal for unwillingness to cooperate, triggering non-cooperative choices.submittedVersio
Latent split of aggregate counts: revealing home deliveries per commodity types and potential freight trip implications
Get PDF{Elise Caspersen and Mario Arrieta-Prieto and Xiaokun (Cara) Wang}, {Latent split of aggregate counts: revealing home deliveries per commodity types and potential freight trip implications}, {Transportmetrica A: Transport Science}, {19}, {2}, {1990438},{2023}, {Taylor & Francis}, {10.1080/23249935.2021.1990438}, {https://doi.org/10.1080/23249935.2021.1990438This paper suggests a joint econometric model that allows estimating latent marginal counts when only total counts and types of commodities purchased are available. The basis for this model is the Negative binomial hurdle model, which is expanded by incorporating different features for the latent classes, allowing eventual null latent counts for one or more classes. A validation procedure for the proposed splitting is discussed. The methodology was used to estimate and validate a model for the propensity to shop online and the corresponding number of shipments per commodity group. The results confirm existing research on online shopping behaviour: elderly is less likely to buy online, while high income, education and having kids motivate online shopping. The average online shopper receives 2.4 shipments/month (0.077 shipments/day), with variations in shipments and commodities depending on the consumer profile. Correlation between commodity groups reveals that consolidation can reduce shipments of up to 30%.publishedVersio
Trust and Sharing in Online Environments. A Comparative Study of Different Groups of Norwegian Car Sharers
Get PDFThough multiple studies have explored the phenomenon of car sharing, very few have indulged into exploring how different forms of trust varies between users of different business models. We address this research gap through employing quantitative data analyses of car sharers in Norway. Results show that the levels of ingroup and outgroup-trust (i.e., trust towards friends/family or unfamiliar persons) are markedly low for the members of the peer-to-peer scheme (M = 3.4/2.9) as compared to the cooperative (M = 6.0/4.8) and business-to-consumer scheme (M = 5.7/4.4). In contrast, technology-based trust is more important for the P2P sharers (M = 5.8) than cooperative (M = 5.6) and the B2C users (M = 5.6). Our findings echo previous studies, indicating that a different set of institutional logics is driving the transactions at the emerging P2P platforms compared to former non-profit sharing communities.publishedVersio
Estimating stocks and flows of electric passenger vehicle batteries in the Norwegian fleet from 2011 to 2030
Get PDFRetired passenger battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to generate significant volumes of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), opening business opportunities for second life and recycling. In order to evaluate these, robust estimates of the future quantity and composition of LIBs are imperative. Here, we analyzed BEV fate in the Norwegian passenger vehicle fleet and estimated the corresponding battery capacity in retired vehicles from 2011 to 2030, using a stock-flow vehicle cohort model linked to analysis of the battery types and sizes contained in different BEVs. Results based on this combination of modeled and highly disaggregated technical data show that (i) the LIB energy capacity available for second use or recycling from end-of-life vehicles is expected to reach 0.6 GWh in 2025 and 2.1 GWh in 2030 (not accounting for any losses); (ii) most LIBs are currently contained within the weight segment 1500–1599 kg followed by 2000+ kg; (iii) highest sales currently exist for BEVs containing lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries; and (iv) lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide batteries initially constitute the largest overall capacity in retired vehicles, but will later be surpassed by NMCs. The results demonstrate rapidly growing opportunities for businesses to make use of retired batteries and a necessity to adapt to changing battery types and sizes.publishedVersio
Toward a decision support system for COVID-19 vaccine allocation inside countries
Get PDFThe distribution of COVID-19 vaccines has proved to be a challenging task for public health authorities in many countries. Among several decisions involved in the task, allocating limited available vaccines to administration points is indeed critical. However, the operation management literature lacks evidence-based mathematical models that could support effective, efficient, sustainable and equitable vaccine allocation decision. This paper develops the fundamentals of a decision support system for COVID-19 vaccine allocation inside countries. The proposed DSS intends to support public health authorities in real-time by illustrating possible vaccine alternatives. The system could also inform and support other actors in the COVID19 distribution for planning and collaboration. Two illustrative cases for the COVID-19 vaccine allocation have been investigated to highlight potential benefits of our methodology.publishedVersio
Optimal policies for electromobility: Joint assessment of transport and electricity distribution costs in Norway
No full textPaal Brevik Wangsness, Stef Proost, Kenneth Løvold Rødseth, Optimal policies for electromobility: Joint assessment of transport and electricity distribution costs in Norway, Utilities Policy, Volume 72, 2021, 101247, ISSN 0957-1787, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2021.101247 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178721000813)This paper develops a stylized economic model for passenger transport in the greater Oslo area, in which the agents' choices of car ownership, transport pattern, and electric vehicle (EV) charging are jointly determined. If enough EVs charge during peak hours, costly grid expansions may be needed. We examine how the distribution system operators can mitigate these costs with different pricing schemes and how this, in turn, affects the transport market equilibrium. We find that applying tariffs differentiated between peak and off-peak periods will help strike a better balance between grid investment costs and EV-owners’ disutility of charging during off-peak hours.publishedVersio
Resilience in care organisations: challenges in maintaining support for vulnerable people in Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic
No full textThe Covid-19 pandemic has challenged the resilience of care organisations (and those dependent on them), especially when services are stopped or restricted. This study focuses on the experiences of care organisations that offer services to individuals in highly precarious situations in 10 European countries. It is based on 32 qualitative interviews and three workshops with managers and staff. The four key types of organisations reviewed largely had the same adaptation patterns in all countries. The most drastic changes were experienced by day centres, which had to suspend or digitise services, whereas night shelters and soup kitchens had to reorganise broadly their work; residential facilities were minimally affected. Given the drastic surge in demand for services, reliance on an overburdened (volunteer) workforce, and a lack of crisis plans, the care organisations with long-term trust networks with clients and intra-organisational cooperation adapted easier. The outcomes were worse for new clients, migrants, psychologically vulnerable people, and those with limited communicative abilities.acceptedVersio
Accessibility Mapping through Linking Land-Use Development Potentials and Planning for Cycling
No full textThe transport sector aims to address climate change by reducing emissions, and a key to achieving this goal is to increase uptake of sustainable modes such as walking, cycling, and public transport. Therefore, it is important to determine ways to achieve this goal and to build a portfolio of feasible reduction strategies. This study is based in Norway where the government has a clear policy objective to reduce growth in urban car traffic and assimilate future sustainable transport modes. Cycling has therefore gained importance in both policy discussions and programme implementation through providing dedicated infrastructure to increase its modal share. Ways to increase cycling can be plotted at both macro- and microlevels. At the micro-level, road design and improved conditions for cyclists can lead to an increase in cycling. At the macro-level, land-use planning can be one of the tools to promote cycling. We analyse the issue at a macro-level based on an Integrated Methodology for Land Use prognosis within Transportation Models (INMAP) which estimates the mutual eff ects of land-use plans and increased accessibility by e-bike. We assess the extent to which future growth areas, as earmarked by the strategic master plans of the cities of Oslo and Trondheim, coincide with the areas that have a high job accessibility by bicycle and e-bike. Analyses reveal that on the introduction of e-bikes in Oslo, accessibility to jobs in the city centre increases from 20,000–24,000 to over 28,000 jobs. For Trondheim, in terms of spatial expansion of accessibility for jobs, there is an extension of the catchment area from 6 km2 to 18 km2. Based on the findings, this study strongly recommends integrating the impact of e-bikes with land-use planning processes and decisions. Through active land-use management, municipalities and regional development authorities can take informed decisions to steer urban mobility in a more sustainable direction.acceptedVersio