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    College as a Marriage Market

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    Recent descriptive work suggests the type of college education (field or institution) is an important but neglected pathway through which individuals sort into homogeneous marriages. These descriptive studies raise the question of why college graduates are so likely to marry someone within their own institution or field of study. One possible explanation is that individuals match on traits correlated with the choice of education, such as innate ability, tastes or family environment. Another possible explanation is that the choice of college education causally impacts whether and whom one marries, either because of search frictions or preferences for spousal education. The goal of this paper is to sort out these explanations and, by doing so, examine the role of colleges as marriage markets. Using data from Norway to address key identification and measurement challenges, we find that colleges are local marriage markets, mattering greatly for whom one marries, not because of the pre-determined traits of the admitted students but as a direct result of attending a particular institution at a given time

    Welfare effects of tax policy change when there are choice restrictions on labour supply

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    Information about individual choices of heterogeneous agents. Results can for example be used to describe the distributional effects of tax policy change, such as the effects on changes in money metric utility – distributions of equivalent and compensating variation (EV or CV). This type of “revealed preference” methodology relies on using models with sufficient realism. In this paper we argue that the so-called “job choice model” represents a way forward in practical work, as it has a richer representation of choice constraints than conventional labour supply models. This model is also particularly suitable given an increased focus on distinguishing between preferences and constraints in applied welfare analysis. We demonstrate the empirical content of the framework by describing the effects of the Norwegian tax reform 2013–2019 on the distribution of compensating variation (CV)

    Regional variation in health care utilization and mortality

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    Geographic variation in health care utilization has raised concerns of possible inefficiencies in health care supply, as differences are often not reflected in health outcomes. Using comprehensive Norwegian microdata, we exploit cross-region migration to analyze regional variation in health care utilization. Our results indicate that place factors account for half of the difference in utilization between high and low utilization regions, while the rest reflects patient demand. We further document heterogeneous impacts of place across socioeconomic groups. Place factors account for 75% of the regional utilization difference for high school dropouts, and 40% for high school graduates; for patients with a college degree, the impact of place is negligible. We find no statistically significant association between the estimated place effects and overall mortality. However, we document a negative association between place effects and utilization-intensive causes of death such as cancer, suggesting high-supply regions may achieve modestly improved health outcomes.publishedVersio

    Predicting the exchange rate path: The importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts

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    Central banks, private banks, statistical agencies and international organizations such as the IMF and OECD typically use information about the exchange rate some weeks before the publication date as the basis for their exchange rate forecasts. In this paper, we test if forecasts can be made more accurate by utilizing information about exchange rate movements closer to the publication date. To this end, we apply new tests for equal predictability and encompassing for path forecasts. We find that the date when the exchange rate forecast is based on is crucial and this finding should be taken into account when evaluating exchange rate forecasts. Using forecasts made by Statistics Norway over the period 2001 - 2016 we find that the random walk, when based on the exchange rate three days ahead of the publication date, encompassed the predicted path by Statistics Norway. However, when using the exchange rate two weeks before the publication deadline, which is the information used by Statistics Norway in practice when making their forecasts, the random walk path and the predicted exchange rate path by Statistics Norway have equal predictability

    Hvordan går det med innvandrere som fullfører en bachelor- eller mastergrad i Norge?

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    I denne rapporten presenterer Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB) deskriptiv statistikk som belyser hvordan det går med innvandrere som fullfører en bachelor- eller mastergrad i Norge. Rapporten gir informasjon om arbeidssituasjon og yrkesinntekt fem år etter fullført grad, avgrenset til dem som fortsatt var bosatt i Norge på dette tidspunktet. SSB har fulgt personene som fullførte en bachelor- eller mastergrad ved norske universiteter og høgskoler i kalenderårene 2007 og i 2012. Vi har sett på hva status var fem år senere når det gjaldt arbeidssituasjon og yrkesinntekt – og om det var forskjeller mellom innvandrere og øvrige studenter som fullførte en bachelor- eller mastergrad i Norge. Rapporten er utarbeidet av Beate Bartsch, Line Gjermshusengen og Jane Bekkengen ved seksjon for utdannings- og kulturstatistikk. Rapporten er tilgjengelig i pdf-format på nettsidene http://www.ssb.no/utdanning/ til Statistisk sentralbyrå. Rapporten er finansiert av Kunnskapsdepartementet

    Assortative labor matching, city size, and the education level of workers

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    Recent research shows that thicker labor markets display better assortative matching. Our contribution addresses identification challenges and heterogeneity of effects, in particular with respect to education. Using a rich administrative worker-firm dataset for Norway, labor market size is shown to be of relevance for assortative matching mainly for the college educated. Among these, the pattern is most pronounced for workers of intermediate ages, with education related to business and administration, men, and service sector workers. Results are robust to instrumentation of population size using historical mines and sample adjustment to mitigate limited mobility bias.publishedVersio

    Does health influence fertility?

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    This work is jointly financed by the Ministry of Health and Care Services, Ministry of Children and Families, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and the Ministry of Education and Research in Norway, through a grant to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Hart’s contribution is partly supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme, project number 262700.Poor health may constrain women’s capacity for active leisure, including family life and childrearing, for participation in the labor market and potentially affect preferences. Still, health remains remarkably understudied as a fertility determinant. We explore the association between health and fertility, using uptake of doctor-certified sickness absences and long-term health-related benefits as proxies for health. We examine whether compositional changes in health distributions and/or changes in the health-fertility association have contributed to the distinct fall in the total fertility rate in Norway since 2009. We use nationwide registry data on women aged 16-45 from 2004-2018. We analyse first, second and third births separately, and use annual observations with lagged timevarying covariates for education, sickness absence and long-term benefits. Income, employment and partnership status are also included in some subanalyses. Long-term benefit uptake is negatively associated with fertility, and the association weakens over time. In addition, such uptake is relatively rare, but increases slightly over time. The use of sickness absence is positively associated with fertility, and the association strengthens over time. Sickness absence uptake is common but decreases over time. It is thus unlikely that changes in women’s health and/or changes in the health-fertility association can help explain the observed decline in fertility observed after 2009. However, if the decrease in sickness absence uptake reflects a stronger labor market preference among women in fertile ages, it might help explain parts of the observed decline. Overall, the decline in fertility is most pronounced for healthy women. Health as a fertility determinant warrants further research, from other countries and with other proxies for health

    Tilstedeværelse, lønnsutvikling og sysselsetting. En registerbasert studie

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    Hva som er bestemmende for lønnsutvikling og sannsynligheten for å havne utenfor arbeidsmarkedet er et sammensatt og komplekst område. Ulike typer fravær fra jobb, både planlagt og ikke-planlagt, påvirker trolig tilknytningen til arbeidsmarkedet over tid

    Tidligere deltakere i introduksjonsordningen 2013-2017

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    Introduksjonsprogrammet for nyankomne innvandrere er et integreringspolitisk tiltak som alle norske kommuner har plikt til å tilby nyankomne flyktninger og deres familiegjenforente i henhold til introduksjonsloven (lov av 4. juli 2003 nr. 80)

    Fastlegers inntekter og kostnader i 2018

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    Dette notatet gir en oversikt over fastlegers inntekter og utgifter. Hovedformålet er å gi et tallgrunnlag som kan være til hjelp i forhandlingene om fastlegers økonomiske vilkår mellom Helse- og omsorgsdepartementet, KS og Legeforeningen. Det var 4 787 fastleger per 31. desember 2018. De hadde en gjennomsnittlig bruttoinntekt på nesten 1,5 millioner kroner dette året. Men bruttoinntekten viser ikke nødvendigvis hva personene har hatt av inntekter i rollen som fastlege. Bruttoinntekten kan også inkludere inntekter som er tjent utenfor fastlegejobben. Tilgjengelige data fra skattemeldingen og næringsoppgaven viser oss summen av alle fastlegenes inntekter og kostnader, men ikke hva som stammer fra fastlege drift, og hva som stammer fra andre aktiviteter. I notatet er det forsøkt ulike tilnærminger for å svare på hva fastleger tjener og hva det koster å drive som fastlege. I kapittel 3 forsøker vi å finne frem til en populasjon med «representative» fastleger, som blant annet har jobbet som fastleger hele året og ikke er fastlønnet. Vi viser hvordan fastlegers inntekter og kostnader varierer etter ulike forhold. Ikke uventet øker fastlegenes inntekter og kostnader med listelengden. I små kommuner ser det ut til at fastlegers driftsinntekter og -kostnader er lavere enn i større kommuner. Vi ser også på differansen mellom fastlegenes driftsinntekter og inntekter som vi vet sikkert at stammer fra fastlegedrift. Om lag 40 prosent av fastlegene har driftsinntekter som er minst 10 prosent høyere enn summen av basistilskudd, refusjoner og pasienters egenbetaling. I kapittel 4 ser vi på spredningen i fastlegenes inntekter og kostnader etter at vi har avgrenset populasjonen for å finne relevante fastleger med tanke på inntektsfor handlingene. Da finner vi at halvparten av fastlegene har driftsinntekter mellom 1,2 millioner kroner og 1,85 millioner kroner. I kapittel 5 viser vi utviklingen i fastlegenes bruttoinntekt, driftsinntekter- og kostnader fra 2016 til 2018. I gjennomsnitt har bruttoinntekten økt med 4 prosent, mens både driftsinntektene og -kostnadene har økt med 8 prosent. I kapittel 6 ser vi nærmere på fastlegenes lønnsinntekter. Fastlegene organiserer sin praksis på mange ulike måter. Noen er fastlønnede, noen driver aksjeselskap og lønnes fra selskapet, mens andre driver enkeltpersonforetak og mottar ikke lønn, men næringsinntekt. Mange fastleger driver også med annen virksomhet enn fastlegevirksomheten som påvirker inntekter og kostnader. Ved å koble data fra fastlegeregisteret og sysselsettingsregisteret i SSB kan vi si noe mer om aktiviteten som lønnstaker. Blant 4 787 fastleger per 31.12.2018 var det 2 947 fastleger som hadde drift hele året og én eller flere lønnstakerjobber. I alt sto disse for 1 821 avtalte årsverk fordelt på 4 002 lønnstakerjobber. 34 prosent av disse årsverkene var utenom «allmenn legetjeneste». Totalt 1 448 av fastleger med drift hele året hadde ingen lønnstakerjobber. I siste del av notatet vurderer vi resultatene og presenterer muligheter for videre analyser

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