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Hospital reimbursement and capacity constraints: Evidence from orthopedic surgeries
Get PDFHealth care providers’ response to payment incentives may have consequences for both fiscal spending and patient health. This paper studies the effects of a change in the payment scheme for hospitals in Norway. In 2010, payments for patients discharged on the day of admission were substantially decreased, while payments for stays lasting longer than one day were increased. This gave hospitals incentives to shift patients from one-day stays to two-day stays, or to decrease the admission of one-day stays. I study hospital responses using two separate difference-in-differences estimation strategies, exploiting, first, the difference in price changes across diagnoses, and secondly, the difference in bed capacity across hospitals. Focusing on orthopedic patients, I find no evidence that hospitals respond to price changes, and capacity constraints do not appear to explain this finding. Results imply that the current payment policy yields little scope for policymakers to affect the health care spending and treatment choices.publishedVersio
Migration after union dissolution in the United States: The role of non-resident family
Get PDFSeparation from a spouse or cohabiting partner is associated with a high likelihood of moving, even over long distances. In this paper, we use longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the United States to analyze the role of non-resident family in the migration of separated people immediately after and in the years following union dissolution. We explore both migration in general and return migration among separated people, drawing comparisons to married and never-married people. We find that having parents, children, or siblings living close by substantially deters migration, especially among separated people. We also find marked positive effects of having family members in the county where the respondent grew up on the likelihood of returning there. Separated people are especially likely to return, compared to others, if they have parents in their county of origin. Furthermore, a lack of an effect of years of education on migration, and a negative effect of this variable on return migration, suggest that migration after separation is less related to human-capital considerations than other types of migration.publishedVersio
Modeling R&D spillovers to productivity: The effects of tax credits
Get PDFHow much stimuli that should be attributed to R&D investments crucially depends on how the benefits of R&D reverberate throughout the economy. An extensive literature has found major spillover effects from R&D investments from one industry to another. Using a macroeconomic model for a small open economy, we analyze how tax credits stimulate R&D through the user cost of capital and how it impacts the economy in general via knowledge flows from R&D capital. We find that a tax credit scheme that lowers the user cost of R&D capital, leads to a gradual increase in aggregate productivity. In the long run, the levels of output, real wages, and consumption are around one percent higher than the baseline.publishedVersio
Buy to let housing investors in the Nordic countries
Get PDFThe last few decades have seen high population and housing price growth in the Nordic capital cities. The high prices have led to concerns about affordability of housing and unsustainable mortgage levels. Policy makers and media have argued that buy-to-let investors contribute to increasing prices. Simulations in a model with a buy-to-let sector suggest that this has been the case in some Nordic capital cities. However, high population growth creates price pressures independently of the presence of buy-to-let investors. Even the cities with rent regulations experience clear growth in both housing prices and rents.publishedVersio
Flere eldre innvandrere i framtidens arbeidsstyrke
Get PDFAntall innvandrere i Norge vil øke framover, men utelukkende i de eldre aldersgruppene. I aldersgruppen 55-66 år vil det bli nesten tre ganger så mange innvandrere de neste 20 årene. Hva vil dette bety for norsk arbeids- og samfunnsliv? Vil de være i jobb? Denne artikkelen undersøker hva som vil kjennetegne de eldre innvandrerne framover – deres bakgrunn, utdanning, sysselsetting og hvor i Norge de vil bo. Våre resultater tyder på at framtidens eldre innvandrere i snitt vil ha betydelig lavere utdanningsnivå og arbeidsdeltakelse enn innfødte på samme alder. Det kan gi utfordringer både for integrerings- og seniorpolitikken.publishedVersio
Selection in Surveys
Get PDFWe evaluate how nonresponse affects conclusions drawn from survey data and consider how researchers can reliably test and correct for nonresponse bias. To do so, we examine a survey on labor market conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic that used randomly assigned financial incentives to encourage participation. We link the survey data to administrative data sources, allowing us to observe a ground truth for participants and nonparticipants. We find evidence of large nonresponse bias, even after correcting for observable differences between participants and nonparticipants. We apply a range of existing methods that account for nonresponse bias due to unobserved differences, including worst-case bounds, bounds that incorporate monotonicity assumptions, and approaches based on parametric and nonparametric selection models. These methods produce bounds (or point estimates) that are either too wide to be useful or far from the ground truth. We show how these shortcomings can be addressed by modeling how nonparticipation can be both active (declining to participate) and passive (not seeing the survey invitation). The model makes use of variation from the randomly assigned financial incentives, as well as the timing of reminder emails. Applying the model to our data produces bounds (or point estimates) that are narrower and closer to the ground truth than the other methods
School value-added and longterm student outcomes
Get PDFSeveral recent studies find that interventions in schools can have important lasting consequences for students, and that schools differ in their contribution to students' learning. However, there is less research investigating how these differences between schools influence longer-term outcomes, especially outside the US. In this paper I study school value-added (VA) in Norwegian compulsory school, where between-school differences are smaller than in the US. I find that VA indicators are able to predict in-school performance without bias. Furthermore, VA is strongly related to long-term outcomes, and differences between schools in VA correspond to meaningful differences in long-term outcomes. For example, a one standard deviation higher VA correspond to 1.5 percent higher earnings around age 32. Three quasi-experiments using variation from student mobility and changes in neighborhood school assignments indicate that the differences captured by the VA indicators do indeed reflect differences in school quality, rather than unobserved student characteristics. Analysis of teacher grades and exam scores suggest that the former is heavily influenced by relative grading, and that the effect of exam score VA on long-term outcomes reflects the effects of skills acquired in school. In addition to shedding lights on the differences in and mechanisms of school quality, the findings help connect learning outcomes with later labor market outcomes, e.g. for cost-benefit analysis of interventions in schools
Corporate taxes, investment and the self-financing rate: The effect of location decisions and exports
Get PDFIn this paper, we study how lower corporate tax rates impact investment by including two novel channels into a DSGE model used for fiscal policy analysis in Norway. We capture both how foreign firms relocate and invest in the country when corporate taxes are reduced and how the inflow of FDI increase exports which spills over to domestic firms who then increase their investment further. We find that a one percentage point reduction in the corporate tax rate increases investment by 0.6%, most of which can be attributed to the FDI-export link. The corporate tax cut becomes self-financed when the FDI-export link is included, but only if other countries do not follow suit and also lower their corporate tax rates. When using the model to analyze the tax reform in Norway from 2014 to 2019, we find overall positive effects on investment and employment
Emission targets and coalition options for a small, ambitious country: An analysis of welfare costs and distributional impacts for Norway
Get PDFWe theoretically and numerically analyse the impacts for a small, open country with carbon abatement ambitions of joining a coalition with allowance trading. Besides welfare impacts for both the coalition and the small, open economy joining the coalition, we scrutinise how the studied policy options differ with respect to their distributional impacts across domestic income groups. Our example is the EU 2030 policies and Norway’s linking to it. In spite of theoretical ambiguity, the findings suggest that the tighter the links with the EU, the lower the abatement costs for Norway. The distributional profile of the welfare costs tends to be progressive, i.e., the relative (and absolute) incidence of the carbon policy falls more heavily on wealthy households than poor households, regardless of the choice of linking options. However, the less progressive, the lower the overall welfare cost. This indicates a trade-off between efficiency and distribution concerns. A national capand-trade system without linking to the EU is the least cost-effective option for Norway but also the most progressive as the higher income deciles face lower capital return and wages
COVID-19, tapt verdiskaping og finanspolitikkens rolle. Utredning for Koronakommisjonen
Get PDFIfølge våre beregninger førte pandemien til at BNP for Fastlands-Norge i 2020 falt med 145 milliarder kroner, eller 4,7 prosent, sammenlignet med en bane uten korona. Samlet for perioden 2020–2023 anslås det neddiskonterte tapet til rundt 330 milliarder kroner, tilsvarende 11 prosent av årlig BNP for Fastlands-Norge.
Anslaget er svært usikkert. Ettersom pandemien fullstendig har dominert verdensøkonomien siden midten av mars, har vi med få unntak lagt til grunn at avvik fra prognosen som ble laget i desember 2019 skyldes korona