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The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections
Get PDFStatistics Norway projects the population by age, sex and immigrant background at the national level. This paper examines the accuracy of the Norwegian population projections produced between 1996 and 2018. We assess deviations between projected and registered numbers, both for the total population and for several key components, such as age structure, total fertility rate and number of births, period life expectancy at birth and number of deaths, as well as net international migration. While fertility proved to be the most difficult component to project during the post-war period, net international migration has been the main source of inaccuracy in the national population projections produced since 1996. The projections produced in 1996, 1999, 2002 and 2005 underestimated longterm population growth due to the unforseen increase in immigration following EU expansion in 2004. Subsequent projections have not, however, produced a consistent under- or overprojection of net migration, and the deviations between the projected and registered total populations have been moderate. Overall, the projections for life expectancy at birth have proven to be consistently lower than the real development in life expectancy in Norway, at least until very recently. Fertility, on the other hand, has continued to be overprojected since observed fertility started to decline in 2009. Nevertheless, the deviations between projected and realised trends in births and deaths have been small compared to the observed deviations for net international migration
Cultural norms and financial incentives: A model of how to fund universities
Get PDFThis paper derives the optimal compensation contract when two asymmetrically verifiable tasks are tied together, a cultural norm of behavior coexists with a financial incentive, and public funding is also a concern. To formulate ideas, we restrict the attention to higher education. The model generates at least three results: First, the monetary incentive for research crowds out the social teaching norm, i.e., peer pressure. Second, increased intrinsic motivation in teaching induces a social multiplier effect on the teaching effort. Third, the government underfunds the university if the teaching standard is lower than that of the government to implement its standard.publishedVersio
Fordelingseffekter av offentlig tjenesteproduksjon i Europa.
Get PDFFormålet med denne artikkelen er å belyse hvordan inntektsulikhet og fattigdom varierer mellom europeiske land, når verdien av offentlige tjenester inngår i inntektsbegrepet. De tradisjonelle fordelingsstudiene basert på inntekt etter skatt gir et ufullstendig bilde av den økonomiske situasjonen til individer og hushold fordi det ikke tas hensyn til at den inntektsskatten innbyggerne betaler kommer tilbake til husholdene i form av utdanning, helse og andre offentlige tjenester som er gratis eller sterkt subsidiert. Fravær av skattefinansierte offentlige tjenester ville ha medført at innbyggerne i stedet måtte ha kjøpt disse tjenestene i markedet. Derfor vil det være relevant å sammenligne resultatene for utvidet inntekt (inntekt etter skatt pluss verdien av offentlige tjenester) med en hypotetisk situasjon (kontrafaktisk inntekt) der innbyggerne må kjøpe tjenestene i markedet, samtidig som de slipper å betale skatter som finansierer de offentlige tjenestene. Vi presenterer resultater for økonomisk ulikhet og fattigdom i perioden 2006 til 2015 i 23 europeiske land. For alle 23 land finner vi at ulikhet og fattigdom blir betydelig redusert når det tas hensyn til verdien av offentlige tjenester.publishedVersio
Buy to let housing investors in the Nordic countries
Get PDFThe last few decades have seen high population and housing price growth in the Nordic capital cities. The high prices have led to concerns about affordability of housing and unsustainable mortgage levels. Policy makers and media have argued that buy-to-let investors contribute to increasing prices. Simulations in a model with a buy-to-let sector suggest that this has been the case in some Nordic capital cities. However, high population growth creates price pressures independently of the presence of buy-to-let investors. Even the cities with rent regulations experience clear growth in both housing prices and rents.publishedVersio
Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries
Get PDFWith historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980–2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.publishedVersio
Alternatives to paying child benefit to the rich: means testing or higher tax?
Get PDFThe American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 implies that the US is effectively moving towards a general child benefit. However, the amount paid out is dependent on income, similar to schemes in several other countries. In the present paper, we argue that instead of suppressing the labour supply of middle income parents through withdrawing the transfer as a function of income, one should consider the obvious alternative of financing a generous universal child benefit by changing the overall income tax system. Implications of means testing relative to a tax financed universal alternative are discussed analytically in a piece-wise linear schedule. Moreover, we provide empirical illustrations of effects of child benefit design by combining information from behavioral and non-behavioral microsimulation models, representing the universe of Norwegian households. Results from both the analytical discussion and the simulations question the case for letting the child benefit be means tested.Financial support from the Ministry of Children and Equality is gratefully acknowledge
Internal labor markets: A worker flow approach
Get PDFThis paper develops a new method to study how workers’ career and wage profiles are shaped by internal labor markets (ILM) and job hierarchies in firms. Our paper tackles the conceptual challenge of organizing jobs within firms into hierarchy levels by proposing a data-driven ranking method based on ob-served worker flows between occupations within firms. We apply our method to linked employer-employee data from Norway that records fine-grained occupational codes and tracks contract changes within firms. Our findings confirm existing evidence that is primarily based on case studies for single firms. We expand on this by documenting substantial heterogeneity in the structure and hierarchy of ILMs across a broad range of large firms. Our findings on wage and promotion dynamics in ILMs are consistent with models of careers in organizations
Did OPEC change its behaviour after the November 2014 meeting?
Get PDFWe analyse the behaviour of OPEC as a group by formulating a theoretical model that encompasses the perfect competition model and various forms of the imperfect competition model. By confronting the theoretical model with quarterly data for the period from 1992 to 2013 within the context of a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model, we find support for the imperfect competition hypothesis regarding the output decisions of OPEC. We also find that a dynamic equilibrium correction model with imperfect competition is stable in-sample. However, a forecasting exercise for the period from 2014 to 2018 reveals that the model breaks down following the November 2014 meeting at which OPEC decided to keep its supply unchanged despite the huge oil price drop in advance. The model systematically underpredicts OPEC production over the forecast period and by as much as 2.5 million barrels per day at the end of 2016. During 2018, however, the model forecasts OPEC production quite well. Our findings suggest that the behaviour of OPEC did indeed change significantly after the November 2014 meeting.publishedVersio
Utvandring og gjeninnvandring blant personer født i Norge
Get PDFMålsettingen med denne rapporten er å analysere faktorer som påvirker utvandring og gjeninnvandring av personer født i Norge med forskjellig tilknytning til landet målt etter sin landbakgrunn gjennom tre generasjoner.
En av hensiktene er å legge et bedre fundament for framtidig fastsettelse av betingelser for innvandring i disse befolkningsgruppene i de nasjonale befolkningsframskrivingene. Vi har tidligere analysert hvordan utvandringen varierer blant innvandrere etter innvandringsgrunn, men analyserer her hvordan «sirkulær migrasjon» forløper blant den norskfødte delen av befolkningen, samt for sammenlikning også blant innvandrere.
Statistisk sentralbyrå foretar en inndeling av hele befolkningen i Norge i til sammen 30 kategorier, basert på informasjon om personenes egen, foreldrenes og besteforeldrenes fødeland. Disse kategoriene er kalt grunnkoder, og inngår vanligvis ikke i den offisielle statistikken. I analysen konsentrerer vi oss om personer fra 15 av grunnkodene for de som har Norge som fødeland, samt altså de som er definert som innvandrere
Byer og miljø. Indikatorer for effektiv arealbruk og miljøvennlig transport
Get PDFDenne rapporten inneholder utvalgte indikatorer og statistikk som beskriver miljøstatus og miljøutviklingen i de ni største byområder og fem storbyer i Norge