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LÆRERMOD: Forutsetninger og likninger
Get PDFDette notatet omtaler forutsetninger og likninger i framskrivningsmodellen LÆRERMOD. LÆRERMOD framskriver tilbud av og etterspørsel etter fem typer lærere: Barnehagelærere, grunnskolelærere, faglærere og andre lærere, samt lærere med praktisk-pedagogisk utdanning (PPU) innenfor allmennfag (PPU-A) og yrkesfag (PPU-Y).
Lærere utgjør kjernen blant ansatte i barnehager og skoler, og kvaliteten på de ansatte er en viktig faktor for barns og elevers læring. Videre utgjør lærere den største andelen av utgifter til barnehager og skoler, og deres arbeidsmarked er av betydelig størrelse i de fleste land.
Effektiviteten i utdanningssystemet avhenger i stor grad av muligheten til å forbedre kvaliteten på de som jobber som lærere. Et viktig premiss for kvaliteten i barnehager og skoler er å ha nok individer med lærerutdanning.
LÆRERMOD er en framskrivningsmodell som beregner om vi i fremtiden kommer til å ha nok utdannende lærere på nasjonalt nivå. Framtidig tilbud og etterspørsel er i modellen beregnet separat for fem typer lærere: Barnehagelærere, grunnskolelærere, faglærere og andre lærere, samt lærere med praktisk-pedagogisk utdanning (PPU) innenfor allmennfag (PPU-A) og yrkesfag (PPU-Y).KunnskapsdepartementetpublishedVersio
Discouraged worker effects and barriers against employment for immigrant and non-immigrant women
Get PDFA phenomenon observed in many labor markets is that the supply of labor appears to depend on business cycles. In other words, workers who are searching for work become “discouraged” under unfavorable business cycle conditions because they believe that their chances of finding an acceptable job are so small that the costs of searching for work outweigh the benefits from searching
Supply versus demand-side policies in the presence of carbon leakage and the green paradox
Get PDFThis study derives the optimal combination of consumer taxes and producer taxes when both spatial and intertemporal leakages from the free-riders are taken into account.
The starting point of this paper is a climate coalition which seeks to reduce global emissions. It is well known from the literature on (spatial) carbon leakage that the climate effect of unilateral measures may be partly offset by the actions of the free-riders. Furthermore, from the literature on the green paradox, we know that stringent demand-side policies in the future may increase present emissions. The novelty of this paper is that we also explore how the coalition’s future policies regarding own fossil fuel production (supply-side policies) affect the present emissions from the free-riders. In particular, we find that a credible announcement of future unilateral supply-side policies reduces early foreign emissions. We derive the optimal combination of consumer taxes and producer taxes when both spatial and intertemporal leakages from the free-riders are taken into account. We show that the tax shares generally differ over time, and that a declining present value of the social cost of carbon over time supports a time path where the consumer tax’s share of the total carbon tax also declines over time. We illustrate our findings with a numerical model for the global fossil fuel markets, considering European unilateral carbon policies
Saving and portfolio allocation before and after job loss
Get PDFFirst published online: 14 March 2016We investigate the development of household labor income, financial wealth, and asset holdings over a 9-year period around job loss, using unique administrative panel data from Norway. Consistent with predictions from theory, the data show additional saving and a shift toward safer assets in the years leading up to unemployment, and depletion of savings after job loss. In the years after job loss, the households' after-tax labor income is reduced by about USD 12,500. Over the same time period, households deplete USD 3,000 of their financial assets, of which one third is accumulated prior to the job loss. This suggests that at least some households can foresee and prepare for the upcoming unemployment, which indicates that private savings can, to some extent, serve as a substitute for publicly provided unemployment insurance.acceptedVersio
Livslang læring 2008–2016 : Resultater fra Lærevilkårsmonitoren
Get PDFKvinner har lenge vært i flertall på landets universiteter og høyskoler. Resultater fra Lærevilkårsmonitoren viser at de også tar betydelig mer formell videreutdanning enn menn.
Denne rapporten beskriver resultater fra Lærevilkårsmonitoren som undersøker omfanget av, og vilkårene for, læring og kompetanseutvikling i Norge. Hvor mange deltar i etter- og videreutdanning i Norge i dag? Hvor mange deltar i kursing i regi av jobben? Er trenden i antall deltakere oppadgående, nedadgående eller stabil?
Økende utdanningsgap mellom kvinner og menn
I Norge har det i flere år vært en trend at flere kvinner enn menn tar høyere utdanning. For eksempel ser vi at per oktober 2015 hadde 57 prosent av kvinner i alderen 30–39 år høyere utdanning. Tilsvarende andel for menn var 39 prosent. SSBs registerbaserte utdanningsstatistikk viser også at flere kvinner enn menn er i gang med høyere utdanning. I 2015 var 3 av 5 studenter i høyere utdanning kvinner (Statistisk sentralbyrå, 2016b).
Tallene fra Lærevilkårsmonitoren viser at også flere kvinner enn menn tar videreutdanning. I 2016 deltar 97 000 menn og 136 000 kvinner mellom 22 og 59 år i videreutdanning.
Det har vært en stabil trend at en større andel kvinner enn menn har deltatt i videreutdanning de siste åtte årene. Kjønnsforskjellene for deltagelse i videreutdanning er dermed med på å forsterke utdanningsgapet mellom kvinner og menn.
Omstilling uten videreutdanning?
Rapporten viser også at andelen deltakere i utdanning og opplæring har vært ganske stabile i tidsperioden 2008–2016. Det er imidlertid slik at andelen deltakere både i formell utdanning, videreutdanning og ikke-formell opplæring er lavere i 2016 enn i 2008. Denne nedgangen gjelder for begge kjønn, men nedgangen er noe større for kvinner.
Dette skjer til tross for at sentrale aktører i norsk næringsliv og politikk hevder at det norske arbeidslivet er i rask endring og at den teknologiske utviklingen stiller, og kommer til å stille, strengere krav til kompetanse blant norske arbeidstakere (Børringbo & Østrem, 15.01.2016, Regjeringen.no, 2015)
Education-specific labour force and demand in Norway in times of transition
Get PDFThis report analyzes the demand for labour in Norway between 2014 and 2035, and whether this demand corresponds to the educational composition of the labour forc
An investigation of the Norwegian consumption function. Income distribution and wealth effects
Get PDFSince the financial crisis, Norwegian private consumption has fallen as a share of household disposable income. This weak development in consumption was not predicted by the contemporaneous consumption models and led to a “structural breakdown” of these models.
This thesis will attempt to build a new model for aggregate consumption that is better able to explain the developments since the financial crisis. This is done by using cointegration analysis to estimate a long run relationship and then include this in an error correction model for private consumption. With a basis in the
current consumption function in Statistic Norway’s KVARTS model, the paper demonstrates the breakdown of the incumbent consumption function and conducts two separate analyses into possible explanations for the breakdown.
A first finding is that the income distribution, measured by a Gini coefficient or the wage share, does not seem to affect household consumption on the aggregate level. In another exercise the wealth variable present in the current model is split into different components. In the long run, including net housing wealth and net financial wealth separately seems to improve the model. Financial wealth is a larger determinant of household consumption in the long run than housing wealth. In the short run, the degree of liquidity affects the effect of financial wealth on consumption, while controlling for short run dynamics of debt does not improve the model.publishedVersio
Statistical differences for primary energy products. Norwegian Energy Balance 2011-2014
Get PDFFor several years there has been a problem regarding statistical difference between the supply and use of petroleum products in the Norwegian Energy Balance. This should not be unexpected from a country exporting almost 90 per cent of its petroleum products. Just minor discrepancies between production and export on the supply side of the balance may result in significant imbalances with the use side figures. There has, however, been a tendency for a positive bias in the statistical difference for a long time, which has caused uncertainty whether the domestic use of petroleum products might have been underestimated. Therefore a project was launched in 2012 in order to address the bias and make corrections if possible.
In Norway, most of the produced petroleum products are primary(1), while most of the domestic use relates to secondary petroleum products. Hence, separate energy balances for primary and secondary petroleum products were elaborated in the project. To further increase the transparency, more detailed product categories and one transfer item were elaborated as well. New data on primary petroleum products were identified and collected, in order to establish alternative export figures and new revision controls. No alternative data on secondary petroleum products was found, and hence these products were not prioritized.
The new export data is consistent with the production figures, and most discrepancies can be discussed with the data owner without breaking the confidentiality rules. Hence, the new data provides a solid basis for quality control. A similar crosschecking of the original export data from the external trade statistics (ETS) is tedious, or for some products almost impossible. Moreover, corrections must be made in the energy balance to obtain consistency between the export and production data.
All new data is readily available from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, one terminal and one pretreatment facility, respectively, and suitable for routine revision control. Compiling them for use in the energy balance is relatively simple. One dataset is not distributed by destination country, and in international reporting of country specific figures this data should instead be used to adjust the current ETS export data.
Based on new and original data, two alternative detailed energy balances for primary petroleum products were established, for revision purposes. Most causes of statistical difference for primary petroleum products were found due to the new data and revision methods, and the statistical differences for these products were significantly reduced.
The new export data will be used for all primary petroleum products in the energy balance instead of ETS export, due to superior revision possibilities. All corrections developed in this project will be considered implemented as well. Whenever an unacceptably high statistical difference occurs in a product category containing primary petroleum, the revision controls and the detailed energy balance setup developed in this project will be used to diagnose the problem. Routines are established to obtain consistency between the energy balance and ETS, including routines for coordinated revision and publishing.
The new export data on crude oil was used in the published energy balance for 2014, based on findings in this project. Moreover, revised export figures on crude oil from 2013 onwards in the ETS were published in November 2015.publishedVersio
Electronic monitoring and recidivism. Quasi-experimental evidence from Norway
Get PDFThe replacement of custodial with non-custodial sanctions holds the potential to reduce recidivism as well as other costs associated with imprisonment.
However, the causal impacts on recidivism of non-custodial sanctions in general, and electronic monitoring (EM) programs in particular, remain unclear. We estimate the effect of EM on recidivism by exploiting an EM program that was gradually introduced in Norwegian counties from 2008, using difference-in-differences and instrumental variable designs. Results show that introducing EM reduced 2-year recidivism rates by about 10 percent, which corresponds to about 19 percent for those actually serving on EM. We find no effects on recidivism intensity or severity. Subsample analyses show that the effect estimates are strongest among offenders without previous imprisonment or recent unemployment spells, and although between-groups differences are statistically non-significant, this suggest that avoiding prison stigma and maintaining workplace relations can be important to reduce recidivism and promote desistance. The reliability of our results is somewhat challenged by unstable pre-implementation trends and signs that more people are convicted to EM-qualifying sentences when EM is introduced
Fuel efficiency improvements – feedback mechanisms and distributional effects in the oil market
Get PDFWe study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world
We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect, carbon leakages and the “green paradox”, but also the distributional effects via oil price changes for different regions, sectors and oil producers. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is introduced, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. We find that the rebound effect has a noticeable effect on the transport sector, but also on other sectors through lower oil prices in the regions that introduce the policy. There is a small green paradox effect in the sense that oil consumption increases initially when the fuel efficiency measures are gradually implemented. Finally, there will be significant carbon leakages if the policy is not implemented in all regions, with leakage rates of 35 per cent or higher. Non-OPEC producers will suffer more than OPEC producers by fuel efficiency policies due to high production costs