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Forecasting Market Volatility and Value-at-Risk: A Comparative Study of Econometric and Machine Learning Models with SHAP Interpretability
Full text linkThis thesis analyses the predictive performance and interpretability of machine learning (ML) models in forecasting short-term financial market risk. It compares traditional econometric approaches—ARIMA, GARCH, and standard Value-at-Risk (VaR)—with ML techniques, XGBoost and Random Forest. The analysis is conducted using daily data from six major equity indices: the S&P 500, OBX, DAX 40, FTSE 100, IBEX 35, and EURO STOXX 50, covering the period from January 2005 to February 2025. To increase interpretability, SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) is applied to the ML models, allowing the recognition of key drivers behind volatility and risk predictions.
Results show that while ML models demonstrated competitive forecasting performance, they did not consistently outperform traditional models across all markets or conditions. In some cases, GARCH-based VaR forecasts were more accurate and stable. However, ML models showed greater adaptability in certain periods and offered valuable insights through SHAP analysis. This analysis revealed that high-frequency indicators—such as recent returns, realized volatility, and the technical indicators—were the most influential features in shaping ML risk forecasts, thereby augmenting transparency in how these models generate predictions.
The models were further evaluated during the 2022 inflation shock. Performance differences were context-specific, with no clear dominance. Backtesting results varied by market, highlighting strengths and weaknesses in both modelling approaches.
This study concludes that explainable ML models are a promising complement—not a replacement—for traditional econometric techniques, yet. When combined with interpretability techniques such as SHAP, they provide valuable insight into the drivers of volatility and the transmission of risk, particularly during periods of market instability
Topologisk feltteori og geometri
No full textIn this thesis, we will use topological field theory to define topological invariants over three-dimensional complex manifolds and vector bundles. These invariants can be used to distinguish between such spaces, which are often hard to tell apart. To set the scene, we will first introduce what complex manifolds are, and their basic properties, before introducing some fundamental properties of complex vector bundles. We then introduce the basic ideas of topological field theory, using Chern-Simons theory as a toy model, before moving on to studying holomorphic Chern-Simons theory under a deformation of the background complex structure.In this thesis, we will use topological field theory to define topological invariants over three-dimensional complex manifolds and vector bundles. These invariants can be used to distinguish between such spaces, which are often hard to tell apart. To set the scene, we will first introduce what complex manifolds are, and their basic properties, before introducing some fundamental properties of complex vector bundles. We then introduce the basic ideas of topological field theory, using Chern-Simons theory as a toy model, before moving on to studying holomorphic Chern-Simons theory under a deformation of the background complex structure
Inclusion in Theory, Exclusion in Practice: Skilled Immigrants' Lived Experiences in Norwegian Multinational Service Companies.
Full text linkThis study investigates how skilled immigrants working in multinational service companies in Norway perceive and experience social inclusion in both formal and informal workplace contexts. The research explores the nuanced ways in which social inclusion or exclusion is constructed through everyday practices, organizational structures, and interpersonal relationships. It examines which factors contribute to a sense of belonging and participation in social gatherings and identifies barriers that hinder this inclusion.
A qualitative approach was applied using semi-structured interviews with 22 skilled immigrants living and working in the Stavanger region. Participants were selected from four continents—Africa, Asia, Europe, and South America—bringing diverse perspectives shaped by their cultural backgrounds and professional journeys. Data were analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s six-step thematic analysis method.
Findings reveal five core categories that structure the inclusion experience: social inclusion experiences, barriers to inclusion, the role of leadership and organizational policies, informal social interactions, and the professional outcomes of inclusion. Language challenges and cultural differences emerged as persistent barriers, even among fluent speakers. The perceived openness of Norwegian colleagues, leadership engagement, and informal workplace practices significantly shaped participants’ sense of belonging.
The study concludes with practical recommendations for organizations, policy makers, and new immigrants and suggests areas for future research, including longitudinal studies and Norwegian employees’ perspectives
A Comparative Qualitative Study of Primary School Teachers’ Cognition About Grammar Teaching in ESL Classrooms in Norway and Pakistan
Full text link"Alle, minimum" - En studie av hvordan forståelsen av menneskelige feilhandlinger kan påvirke granskning av uønskede hendelser
No full textNorsk arbeidsliv var i 2023 preget av 36 arbeidsulykker med dødelig utfall. I statistikken er norske industrivirksomheter vesentlig representert. Dette understreker et økt behov for innsats mot forebygging av ulykker. Menneskelig adferd spiller en sentral rolle i arbeidsulykker, og Reason (1997) anslår at 80-90% av storulykker skyldes en implikasjon av menneskelige faktorer. Det er derfor vesentlig å undersøke hvordan virksomheter forstår og håndterer menneskelige feilhandlinger – ofte tilknyttet en granskningsprosess.
Denne studien har forsøkt å svare på følgende problemstilling:
Hvordan kan forståelsen av menneskelige feilhandlinger påvirke granskning av uønskede hendelser?
For å besvare problemstillingen er Speira AS, en global bedrift som spesialiserer seg på valset aluminium, valgt som forskningsobjekt. Bedriften er relevant å forske på da den ansees å være representativ for norsk industri preget av risikofylte arbeidsoppgaver med strenge sikkerhetskrav. Studien har som formål å øke forståelsen av menneskelige feilhandlinger og gi verdifulle innspill til annen sammenlignbar industri for å redusere arbeidsrelaterte ulykker.
Studien har benyttet en kvalitativ metode gjennom dokumentanalyse av ti granskningsrapporter og intervju av ni informanter. Funn fra datainnsamlingen er drøftet opp mot relevante teorier med særlig vekt på ulykkesperspektivet Human Factors av Sidney Dekker (2014).
Funn viser at Speira forstår menneskelige feilhandlinger som brudd på sikkerhetsregler og prosedyrer for å ta snarveier eller spare tid, men anerkjenner også at det er normalt for mennesker å gjøre feil. Granskningsrapportene viser at årsaksforklaringer og tiltak ofte rettes mot organisatoriske nivåer.
Forståelse av menneskelige feilhandlinger påvirker granskning i stor grad på flere måter. Den påvirker informasjonsinnhenting, hvor dypt i det organisatoriske nivået det letes etter årsakskonklusjoner, hvem tiltak retter seg mot og til slutt hvor stort læringspotensial bedriften sitter igjen med etter en uønsket hendelse.
Til slutt foreslås forbedringsforslag til Speira for å øke læring og forebygging av uønskede hendelser
Buss, interaksjon og orden -En observasjonsstudie av bussreiser i Rogaland
Full text linkSammendrag
Denne oppgaven undersøker følgende problemstilling: «Hvordan opprettholdes sosial orden på bussen gjennom sosiale interaksjoner?» For i løpet av en busstur skjer det mange situasjoner som en kanskje tar for gitt, og går automatisk. Slik er det ikke, og er mer ryddighet og orden en man selv tror. I løpet av en busstur er det mulig å observerer av og påstigning, kø, om folk velger å stå eller sitte, bruk av personlige gjenstander, teknikker for sitte alene, telefonbruk, og korte samtaler.
Noen av hovedfunnene jeg kom frem til ut fra mine observasjoner er at yngre stort sett velger å stå fremfor å sitte, selv om det er ledige seter som er en kontrast til eldre som hver gang satt seg ned. Derimot er det viktig å påpeke at dette skjedde stort sett på korte strekninger, mens på lengre strekninger viste folk seg mer villig til å sette seg ved en fremmed. Av og påstigning går sin gang ved å følge normen «først av, så på». Det ble hyppig brukt sekk eller veske for å sitte alene. På hver eneste buss var det ikke mulig å ikke se passasjerer ha en telefon i hånden, særlig blant ynge og voksne, som har sine utfordringer. Et annet funn er at folk forstyrrer eller snakker ikke med hverandre hvis det ikke er en grunn for det, og dette var noe som kom tydelig frem i mine observasjoner
Instructional support in Norwegian classrooms: A multi-method and multi-informant approach
Full text linkBackground: Instructional support has previously been found to be of great importance for students’ learning, engagement, achievement, and development. Similarly, the concept of instructional support has consistently been shown to be of lower quality compared with its counterparts: emotional support and classroom organization. Accordingly, this thesis attempts to elaborate on instructional support in Norwegian classrooms through a multi-informant perspective, including external observers, teachers, and students, and provide insight into specific teacher and student factors that may affect the quality of instructional support.
Aims: The main aim of the current thesis was to gain more knowledge on instructional support in Norwegian classrooms by including classroom observations and teacher and student reports. The first study aimed to address patterns of teachers’ instructional support quality and its association with teachers’ job satisfaction and collegial collaboration. By employing both observations and teacher reports, the study complement the understanding of instructional support quality. The second study aimed to investigate students’ classroom level reports of instructional support and the association between external observers’ perceptions of instructional support compared with students’ perceptions. Moreover, it investigated students’ reports of off-task behavior and the association with their reports of instructional support at the student level. By including external observers and student reports of instructional support, this study aimed to provide new insights into the understanding of these concepts from two distinct perspectives. The third study aimed to examine instructional support and its association with students’ emotional and behavioral engagement. Additionally, it was investigated whether instructional support and student engagement differed between girls and boys and whether teachers’ work experience and job satisfaction accounted for variance in students’ engagement. By investigating instructional support from two perspectives—classroom observations and students’ reports—the study offer valuable knowledge to understand the association between instructional support and student engagement.
Methods: A multi-method design with a quantitative approach using systematic classroom observations and survey data from teachers and students were included. A total of 81 teachers and 1306 students from 5th to 10th grade were part of the classroom observations and responded to surveys. The teachers and students came from 15 different schools across three counties in Norway. Including instructional support from the perspectives of external observers, teachers, and students allowed for complex statistical analyses to answer the research questions and hypotheses. Study I had a person-centered approach to the data, applying latent profile analysis to investigate patterns of teachers’ instructional support quality based on external observers and teachers’ reports of instructional support. Additionally, by applying multivariate analysis of variance, how teachers’ reports on their job satisfaction and collegial collaboration associated with their distinct instructional support profiles was examined. Studies II and III were variable-centered studies. In Study II, multilevel structural equation modeling was applied to investigate the associations between observers’ and students’ reports of instructional support at the classroom level and whether students’ off-task behavior was related to instructional support at the student level. In Study III, cross-classified multilevel modeling was applied to investigate the association of observed and student-reported instructional support with student engagement, student gender differences in these associations, and the impact of teachers’ work experience and job satisfaction. In addition, control variables relevant to the individual student were included, that is, gender, grade level, and SES in Study II and grade level and SES in Study III.
Results: Study I found that the sample of Norwegian teachers could be grouped into five distinct profiles based on reports from external were characterized as confident, low-quality, less confident, high-quality, and low analysis and inquiry (AI) and instructional dialogue (ID). The results also indicated that the teachers belonging to the low-quality profile were less satisfied with their job compared with the teachers in the high-quality and low AI and ID profiles. The results in Study II implied that at the classroom level, there was a total effect from observed to student-reported instructional support in the spring but not in the fall. This indicates that there is a correspondence between how observers and students report instructional support at the classroom level. Moreover, students’ off-task behavior was negatively associated with student-reported instructional support at the student level in both fall and spring but with stronger associations in the fall. This result implies that the more off-task behavior the students reported, the less instructional support they also reported. The findings in Study III indicated that observed instructional support was significantly associated with students’ emotional engagement, whereas student-reported instructional support was significantly associated with both emotional and behavioral engagement. These results imply that, in classrooms where the teachers were observed to provide high-quality instructional support and/or when students reported high instructional support, students also tended to report high emotional engagement and both high emotional and behavioral engagement, respectively. Additionally, girls seemed to benefit more from high-quality observed instructional support regarding students’ emotional engagement than boys. Teachers’ job satisfaction accounted for variance in students’ emotional engagement, implying that, in classrooms where the teacher is satisfied with the job, the students are more emotionally engaged.
Conclusion: The current thesis contributes new knowledge regarding instructional support from the perspectives of external observers, teachers, and students in the Norwegian school context. The findings from the three studies indicate a variation in the quality of teachers’ instructional support provided to students. Moreover, students reporting off-task behavior reported less instructional support than their peers, and the higher the observed and student-reported instructional support, the more engagement students reported
Forhold som kan gi positiv måloppnåelse for gründere -Sett fra ett psykologisk perspektiv
Full text linkSammendrag
I nyhetsmedia fremkommer det med jevne mellomrom utsagn som kan indikere at det har vokst frem ett økende skille i befolkningen når det gjelder den generelle økonomiske situasjonen. Frivillige aktører melder om lange køer ved matutdelingsstasjoner og at den sosiale sammensetningen av gruppen fattige har endret seg og økt de siste årene. På den andre siden opplever noen grupper større økonomisk velstand. Noen individer opplever velstand i den grad at de blir fremmet i media som spesielt velstående økonomisk, med tilhørende beskrivelser og narrative anekdoter.
Oppgaven ønsker å identifisere markører for hvordan enkelte individer erverver seg økonomisk velstand på tross av hindringer. Årsaken til valg av fokusgruppen, gründere innenfor beskrivelsen, er ønsket om å definere ett uttrekk av gruppen, hvor disse har vist en resilient tilnærming til å skape økonomisk velstand. Personene som er eksemplifisert i oppgaven er representert ved at de samtlige har opparbeidet sin formue gjennom gründervirksomhet som i sum har hatt vellykket, positiv måloppnåelse over tid. Økonomisk velstand er i vestlig målestokk, et samfunn basert på en kapitalistisk grunnmodell, en god og målbar indikator på måloppnåelse.
Oppgaven vil ikke beskrive eller vurdere personlig forbruk av midler tjent, men vurdere følgende faktorer;
Hvilke personlighetstrekk kjennetegner individer som har skapt egen høy formue og hvilke personlighets faktorer ligger til grunn for opparbeidelse av formuen når denne er egenskapt gjennom gründervirksomhet?
Kan vi karakterisere gründere under fellestrekk og hva kjennetegner gründere som er økonomisk vellykkede. Hvordan kan man knytte karaktertrekkene opp mot psykologiske teorier?
Gjennomgang av datamateriale, forskningsartikler rundt utvikling av resiliens med positivt utfall. Drøfting av forhold knyttet til resiliens som utvikling av PTG, post traumatisk vekst og begrepet hardiness.
I oppgavebesvarelsen defineres gruppen av økonomisk resiliente, ut fra kriterier som baserer seg på oppnåelse av egen skapt situasjon gjennom direkte deltagelse i gründervirksomhet for egen regning.
Oppgaven legger ikke til grunn oppnådd velstand som følge av for eksempel arvede midler, eller deltagelse i selskaper som passive investorer, hvor høy økonomisk avkastning oppstår.Abstract
In the media, recurring reports suggest a growing divide in the population regarding the general economic situation. Volunteers have observed long queues at food distribution centers and noted changes in the social composition of those experiencing poverty, both in diversity and in number. Conversely, some groups appear to be experiencing increased economic prosperity. Certain individuals are portrayed in the media as exceptionally wealthy, often accompanied by descriptive narratives that highlight their financial success.
This thesis seeks to identify the factors that enable certain individuals to accumulate economic wealth despite significant obstacles. It focuses specifically on entrepreneurs who have demonstrated resilience in achieving economic prosperity. The selected individuals have all built their wealth through entrepreneurial ventures that have consistently met their goals over time. In Western capitalist societies, economic prosperity is a widely accepted and measurable indicator of success.
The thesis does not examine the personal consumption of earned wealth. Instead, it explores the following core questions: What personality traits characterize individuals who have independently created significant wealth? Which psychological factors contribute to wealth accumulation through entrepreneurial activity? Can financially successful entrepreneurs be grouped by shared personality features? And how can these traits be linked to established psychological theories?
To address these questions, the thesis reviews relevant data and scholarly research on resilience and its positive outcomes. Special attention is given to psychological constructs such as Post-Traumatic Growth (PTG) and hardiness. Ultimately, the thesis defines a group of "economically resilient" individuals—those who have actively created their financial situation through direct involvement in entrepreneurial activities. It explicitly excludes individuals whose wealth results from inheritance or passive investment
Analysing The Effect of Pressure and Fluid State on The Response Time Required from A Pressure Safety Device in A Shell-And-Tube Heat Exchanger During Tube Rupture Scenario
Full text linkThis thesis investigates the impact of pressure differentials and fluid states on the response time required from pressure Relief devices (PRDs), such as Pressure Safety Valves (PSVs) and Rupture Disks (RDs), during a tube rupture scenario in a shell-and-tube heat exchanger. By simulating a range of pressure conditions across the shell and tube sides, the analysis focuses on how the initial pressure difference influences the speed at which overpressure protection must respond to prevent unsafe conditions. The results reveal that as the pressure difference increases, the allowable response time for PRDs significantly decreases. Critically, the study demonstrates that under certain extreme pressure conditions, even a Rupture disk—despite its rapid response characteristics—may fail to mitigate the pressure rise quickly enough to keep the system within safe design limits. These findings emphasize the need for careful safety device selection and system design, particularly in applications involving high-pressure gas and low-pressure liquid.This thesis investigates the impact of pressure differentials and fluid states on the response time required from pressure Relief devices (PRDs), such as Pressure Safety Valves (PSVs) and Rupture Disks (RDs), during a tube rupture scenario in a shell-and-tube heat exchanger. By simulating a range of pressure conditions across the shell and tube sides, the analysis focuses on how the initial pressure difference influences the speed at which overpressure protection must respond to prevent unsafe conditions. The results reveal that as the pressure difference increases, the allowable response time for PRDs significantly decreases. Critically, the study demonstrates that under certain extreme pressure conditions, even a Rupture disk—despite its rapid response characteristics—may fail to mitigate the pressure rise quickly enough to keep the system within safe design limits. These findings emphasize the need for careful safety device selection and system design, particularly in applications involving high-pressure gas and low-pressure liquid