NHH Brage (Norges Handelshøyskole)
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Nowcasting GDP Growth on a Weekly Basis : Leveraging Comprehensive News Article Information and Macroeconomic Indicators
Get PDFTimely economic indicators are crucial for effective macroeconomic decision-making. In particular, this
applies during crises when economic shifts can be large and costly. In this thesis, we produce weekly
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimates for 22 large Western economies using a neural network
ensemble and a unique combination of macroeconomic data and text variables derived from 686 390 news
articles. Our contribution to the literature on GDP growth nowcasting is investigating whether comprehensive
information about the news coverage combined with macroeconomic indicators can be leveraged to improve
nowcasting. Specifically, we combine sentiment analysis with macroeconomic variables and news topic
analysis through zero-shot classification. We find that our model effectively captures the GDP growth trend
in most countries during normal times and excels during crises, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the
COVID-19 pandemic. Analyzing Shapley values revealed that the ensemble model identifies interaction
effects and non-linearities, which enable it to capture sharp shifts during crises.nhhma
Fremtidens teamarbeid : Opplevde utfordringer og muligheter ved bruk av kunstig intelligens i team
Get PDFDen teknologiske utviklingen samfunnet står overfor i dag, fører ikke bare til nye former for
arbeid, men også til en endring i hvordan mennesker jobber sammen. Implementeringen av
kunstig intelligens (KI) åpner for en rekke nye muligheter, men medfører samtidig endringer
i hvordan organisasjoner og arbeidsprosesser fungerer. I lys av denne utviklingen har
masterutredningen vår undersøkt hvilke utfordringer og muligheter som oppleves når KI blir
tatt i bruk i teamarbeid, samt hvordan organisasjoner kan tilrettelegge for slik
implementering i fremtiden. Gjennom en kvalitativ casestudie har vi intervjuet 13
informanter fra to casebedrifter om deres opplevelser ved bruk av KI i teamarbeid.
Studien belyser at KI foreløpig anses som et verktøy for støtte og effektivisering i
teamarbeid, fremfor som et autonomt teammedlem. Et av våre hovedfunn omhandler
hvordan mennesker fremdeles står som ansvarlige og som beslutningstakere i teamsettinger,
til tross for KIs økende bidrag. Dette understreker viktigheten av menneskelig dømmekraft
og interaksjon, selv om teamdynamikken mellom mennesker og KI kan endres på sikt.
Studien avdekker utfordringer tilknyttet kommunikasjon innad i organisasjoner, og viser til
varierende grad av åpenhet blant ansatte rundt bruken av KI. Videre påpekes bekymringer
tilknyttet personvern, tillit og etikk som sentrale utfordringer. På mulighetssiden belyser
oppgaven hvordan KI kan overta repetitive og tidkrevende oppgaver. Dette frigjør tid for
ansatte til å engasjere seg i mer meningsfylt og komplekst arbeid, noe som kan føre til en
endring i dagens arbeidslandskap, og medføre økt jobbtilfredshet for ansatte.
Med denne masteroppgaven forsøker vi å gi en dypere forståelse av hvilke muligheter som
oppleves ved bruk av KI i teamarbeid, og fremhever utfordringer som medfølger den
teknologiske utviklingen. Implementeringen av KI i teamarbeid er trolig en trend vi vil se
mer av fremover. Studien bidrar til en økt forståelse av hvordan KI kan integreres på en måte
som balanserer kunstig og menneskelig intelligens, samtidig som vi ivaretar etiske hensyn og
skaper tillit til teknologien. Når vi anerkjenner KI som et komplementært verktøy, fremmer
vi en tilnærming som bevarer menneskelige ferdigheter i kjernen av teamarbeid. Ved å
utforske opplevelsen av utfordringer og muligheter i dette raskt skiftende landskapet kan vi
bidra til å styrke organisasjoners evne til å benytte KI i teamarbeid sitt fulle potensial.nhhma
Renewable energy’s effect on bottlenecks in the electricity market : Analyzing the impact of the green transition and increased interconnectors abroad on price differences towards NO2
Get PDFThe electricity sector in Europe needs a substantial transition towards an increased share
of renewable energy sources to reach the European Commission’s target for Europe to
be climate neutral by 2050. In this study, we explore the impact of the green transition
through increased use of renewable energy. Specifically, we focus on bottlenecks in the
electricity market between the NO2 price area in Norway and its interconnectors abroad
to Denmark (DK1), Germany (DE), the Netherlands (NL), and the United Kingdom
(UK). Further, this study is set to give an understanding of Europe’s evolving energy
landscape related to price fluctuations affected by interconnectors and a focus on more
renewable energy in response to climate change imperatives.
Using a combination of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Pooled OLS regression models,
the study analyzes correlations between daily spot price differences, weather conditions,
and power generation data from 2020 to 2023. Further, we investigate the implications
of increasing the use of intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar,
in price areas abroad that NO2 has interconnectors with and the effect this has on price
differences. Before 2020, there have not been many bottlenecks between NO2 and abroad,
meaning few constraints on the flow of electricity in the power grid. Therefore, the demand
to expand capacity in the grid has not been substantial. With the increasing production
of energy from wind and solar sources, we see an immense increase in fluctuations in price
differences as a result of the increased exchange of power.
The findings in our regression results indicate that wind power has a significant correlation
with price difference and substantiates that weather has an effect on bottlenecks.
Intermittent production from renewable energy sources constitutes an increasingly larger
share of the power production mix among energy suppliers. Our findings show that using
intermittent renewable energy sources might contribute to more substantial problems
concerning bottlenecks and fluctuations in price difference. However, we also explore how
this can be balanced using dispatchable energy sources such as hydropower in Norway.nhhma
Navigating Green Choices : The Role of Cognitive Inferences and Immediate Emotions in Sustainable Product Selection
Get PDFIn response to the escalating trend of conscious consumption, there exists a significant market opportunity for sustainable products. To capitalize on this potential, it is essential to advance the field of the psychological mechanisms that influence consumers' decisions when choosing between sustainable and non-sustainable products. This research aims to investigate various cognitive inferences and immediate emotional responses, two pivotal psychological dimensions of consumer behavior, in relation to product decision, sustainable vs non-sustainable. Additionally, we seek to determine the extent to which these inferences and emotions influence the selection between these products.
By conducting two studies, where Study 1 utilizes secondary data and Study 2 acts as an expanded follow-up from the existing research, we discover that cognitive inferences such as perceived safety, aesthetic appeal, innovativeness, and femininity, along with the emotions of hope and pride, are associated with a sustainable product. Moreover, we find that perceived quality and the emotions of guilt and pride are associated with a non-sustainable product.
Key drivers for the selection of the sustainable product include perceived quality and safety, as well as the sub-dimension of perceived innovativeness, excitement, which are the most critical positive drivers for the preference of the sustainable product. Conversely, perceived femininity associated with the sustainable product has a negative effect on the willingness to pay a premium for it. The most intriguing finding is that fear has a slight negative effect on the choice of the sustainable product if this emotion is elicited by it. However, if this emotion is attributed to the non-sustainable product, it becomes a potent positive driver for the sustainable product.
These insights contribute significantly to the existing literature on sustainable consumer behavior, offering a perspective that can guide businesses in developing strategies that resonate with the immediate thoughts that influence customer preferences. Our study paves the way for future research to further unravel the nuanced dynamics of cognitive inferences and emotional responses in the context of sustainable consumption.nhhma
Short-Term Stocks, Long-Term Gains : Leveraging Implied Equity Duration in Portfolio Management
Get PDFThis thesis extends the literature on equity duration by analyzing stock market dynamics,
particularly the short duration premium. Utilizing a robust dataset spanning from 1970 to 2022,
our approach extends Weber’s (2018) work through various analytical frameworks, examining
this phenomenon in depth. Significant findings include the identification of a short duration
premium in the stock market, where stocks with shorter equity duration consistently
outperform those with longer durations. This pattern, stable across various market conditions,
challenges traditional asset pricing models, indicating a unique value in shorter-duration
stocks. This thesis employed various factor models, from the CAPM to the Stambaugh-Yuan
model. Each revealed insights but also significant unexplained returns in our SML-portfolio.
This highlights the potential influence of market inefficiencies and behavioral aspects in asset
pricing, suggesting new directions for future research in this area.nhhma
Bedre utnyttelse av hver enkelt investeringskrone : En eksplorerende flercasestudie av investeringer i medisinsk-teknisk utstyr ved Haukleand og St. Olav
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Should Every Vote Count? Examining the Influence of Dual-Class Equity on Firm Valuation in Sweden
No full textIn the ongoing debate on dual-class equity, Sweden sets itself apart as a country where dual-class equity has been legal and prevalent for over a century. Dual-class equity has historically been associated with agency costs, harming firm value. We hypothesize that within the Swedish context of strong governance norms and minority protection, agency costs are considerably mitigated, materializing in a valuation premium for dual-class firms. Over time, we also expect this valuation gap to narrow as benefits recede and agency costs rise. By examining 305 Swedish firms that went public between 2010 and 2019, we find an initial valuation premium for dual-class firms compared to single-class firms, which decreases over time. We account for the endogenous decision of a dual-class listing through a three-stage instrumental variables estimation and estimate the time-varying effect using first-difference regression. These findings imply that within the appropriate context, the advantages of dual-class equity can outweigh the costs, and these factors dynamically converge as firms mature.nhhma
Bidding for the Future: Efficient Auction Design during Financial Headwinds : A Comparative Study of UK and German Offshore Wind Auctions and Lessons for Norwegian Policymakers
Get PDFOffshore wind is increasingly recognized as a viable source of renewable energy and has great
potential for international decarbonization. However, current supply-chain bottlenecks, inflation
and interest rates have increased industry costs. Consequently, investment risk is higher, and
increased compensation is required. This study investigates the auction design of the two leading
European offshore wind markets, to establish best practices and ultimately provide
recommendations on how Norway should approach the new market conditions.
A comparative analysis finds that dynamic auctions have been successful in less mature markets,
leading to price discovery and mitigating the winner’s curse. Strict prequalification criteria and
penalties ensure bidder competence and financial capability. This leads to higher effectiveness,
efficiency, and realization. It mitigates bidder’s real option strategies, while incentivizing auction
participation. Shortening the application processes and state-covered grid connection reduces
planning risks and lowers investment costs. Ceiling prices should consider technology costs and
market conditions to ensure auction participation, project realization and limited support costs.
Support mechanisms should include complimentary revenue streams for developers via
commercial PPAs or merchant nose agreements. Germany has succeeded with a one-sided CfD
and reduced capital expenditure, due to state-covered grid costs. This provides high upside
potential and strategic real option value, compensating developers from new perceived risk. The
UK, with a two-sided CfD and developer-covered grid costs, has seen failed auctions due to lack
of compensation.
Considering the current macroeconomic climate and objective of cost efficiency, the Norwegian
government is recommended to have a holistic approach to auction design. Timely announced,
dynamic auctions will allow for price discovery and avoid the winner’s curse. Facilitating
electricity grid connection and shortening application processes will reduce uncertainty and
planning risk. A two-sided CfD with a subsidy cap is advised, with increased, recalculated ceiling
prices to internalize the current macroeconomic situation. Moreover, the government should
include inflation-indexation of contracts, as well as complimentary revenue streams such as
commercial PPAs. This may turn unprofitable projects into attractive prospects.nhhma
Is Digital Transformation Tightening SMEs' Access to Debt?
Get PDFIs the constantly increasing technology always a blessing, or does it worsen existing
challenges? This thesis analyzes how digital transformation in the financial sector affects
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) debt. Using the Payment Service Directive No. 2
(PSD2) as a shock into digital transformation, we employ a difference-in-differences (DiD)
methodology to analyze the changes in SMEs' debt ratios triggered by digital transformation.
First, our study investigates how SMEs are affected by digital transformation in the financial
sector. Second, we test whether SMEs experience varying impacts depending on their
characteristics. With this approach, we aim to understand the reasons behind the effect of
digital transformation on SMEs' debt in the financial sector.nhhma
Behavioral Impact of Short-Term Stock Price Trends on Equity Research : A Textual Analysis of Trend-Chasing Bias in Norwegian Equity Research Reports Covering the Oslo Stock Exchange
Get PDFThis thesis employs XGBoost and linear regression to reveal whether short-term stock
price trends can explain the variance in textual sentiment in Norwegian equity research
reports covering the Oslo Stock Exchange, investigating whether trend-chasing bias is
present in equity research. The thesis is based on 2,350 equity research reports from the
past 5 years covering the 25 largest companies by market capitalization listed on the Oslo
Stock Exchange, published by Carnegie, DNB Markets, and Pareto Securities.
We present empirical evidence demonstrating an enhancement in the predictive efficacy of
our model with the integration of short-term stock price trend indicators. Specifically,
the incorporation of these indicators resulted in a 2.2% increase in the linear regression
model’s explanatory power compared to our reference model. The full model can account
for 44.7% of the variance in textual sentiment. Further, the XGBoost model improves
predictive accuracy over the linear model and returns the lagged sentiment, investment
bank, financial leverage, and RSI to be the most important variables explaining sentiment,
chronologically ordered by variable importance. The 3-month simple return and MACD
prove to be similar in variable importance with traditional valuation metrics such as the
P/E ratio and firm size. Thus, we find that stock price trend indicators improve the
models capacity to explain the sentiment of an equity research report.
However, our findings cannot state that the given dependency is due to trend-chasing
bias in Norwegian equity research. The textual sentiment is determined by numerous
unobservable variables, making it likely that our model suffers from omitted variable bias,
thus causing endogeneity issues. Further, we cannot determine if a change in textual
sentiment is attributable to a measurable change in the perception of a company, or the
fact that the reports summarize and relay market information.nhhma