The Egyptian Cardiothoracic Surgeon (ECTS - E-Journal)
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    Belief rule-based inference to predict trauma outcome

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    A RIMER methodology-based trauma outcome prediction model is developed.The RIMER-based prediction model is fine-tuned and validated using historical data.LR, SVM, and ANN models are developed and compared with the RIMER model.The RIMER model has the best prediction performance among the four models. A belief rule-based inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach (RIMER) is employed in this study to construct a decision support tool that helps physicians predict in-hospital death and intensive care unit admission among trauma patients in emergency departments (EDs). This study contributes to the research community by developing and validating a RIMER-based decision tool for predicting trauma outcome. To compare the prediction performance of the RIMER model with those of models derived using commonly adopted methods, such as logistic regression analysis, support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN), several logistic regression models, SVM models, and ANN models are constructed using the same dataset. Five-fold cross-validation is employed to train and validate the prediction models constructed using four different methods. Results indicate that the RIMER model has the best prediction performance among the four models, and its performance can be improved after knowledge base training with historical data. The RIMER tool exhibits strong potential to help ED physicians to better triage trauma, optimally utilize hospital resources, and achieve better patient outcomes

    Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Meteorology and Aerosol Concentrations in the Foothills of the Nepal Himalayas (Nagarkot -1,900 m asl)

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    A 10-months long monitoring experiment to investigate the diurnal and seasonal variation of aerosol size distribution at Nagarkot (1,900 m asl) in the Kathmadu Valley was carried out as part of a study on katabatic and anabatic influence on pollution dispersion mechanisms. Seasonal means show total aerosol number concentration was highest during post-monsoon season (775 ± 417 cm−3) followed by pre-monsoon (644 ± 429 cm−3) and monsoon (293 ± 205 cm−3) periods. Fine particle concentration (0.25 μm ≤ DP ≤ 2.5 μm) dominated in all seasons, however, contribution by coarse particles (3.0 μm ≤ DP ≤ 10.0 μm) is more significant in the monsoon season with contributions from particles larger than 10.0 μm being negligible. Our results show a regular diurnal pattern of aerosol concentration in the valley with a morning and an evening peak. The daily twin peaks are attributed to calm conditions followed by transitional growth and break down of the valley boundary layer below. The peaks are generally associated with enhancement of the coarse particle fraction. The evening peak is generally higher than the morning peak, and is caused by fresh evening pollution from the valley associated with increased local activities coupled with recirculation of these trapped pollutants. Relatively clean air masses from neighbouring valleys contribute to the smaller morning peak. Gap flows through the western passes of the Kathmandu Valley, which sweep away the valley pollutants towards the eastern passes modulated by the mountain - valley wind system, are mainly responsible for the dominant pollutant circulation patterns exhibited within the valley

    Efficient block preconditioning for a C1 finite element discretisation of the Dirichlet biharmonic problem

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    We present an efficient block preconditioner for the two-dimensional biharmonic Dirichlet problem discretized by C1C^1 bicubic Hermite finite elements. In this formulation each node in the mesh has four different degrees of freedom (DOFs). Grouping DOFs of the same type together leads to a natural blocking of the Galerkin coefficient matrix. Based on this block structure, we develop two preconditioners: a 2×22\times 2 block diagonal (BD) preconditioner and a block bordered diagonal (BBD) preconditioner. We prove mesh-independent bounds for the spectra of the BD-preconditioned Galerkin matrix under certain conditions. The eigenvalue analysis is based on the fact that the proposed preconditioner, like the coefficient matrix itself, is symmetric positive definite (SPD) and assembled from element matrices. We demonstrate the effectiveness of an inexact version of the BBD preconditioner, which exhibits near-optimal scaling in terms of computational cost with respect to the discrete problem size. Finally, we study robustness of this preconditioner with respect to element stretching, domain distortion, and nonconvex domains

    Early and Late Modern English Grammars as Evidence in English Historical Linguistics

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    Aqueous phase oxidation of sulphur dioxide by ozone in cloud droplets

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    The growth of aerosol due to the aqueous phase oxidation of sulfur dioxide by ozone was measured in laboratory-generated clouds created in the Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). Experiments were performed at 10 and −10 °C, on acidic (sulfuric acid) and on partially to fully neutralised (ammonium sulfate) seed aerosol. Clouds were generated by performing an adiabatic expansion – pressurising the chamber to 220 hPa above atmospheric pressure, and then rapidly releasing the excess pressure, resulting in a cooling, condensation of water on the aerosol and a cloud lifetime of approximately 6 min. A model was developed to compare the observed aerosol growth with that predicted using oxidation rate constants previously measured in bulk solutions. The model captured the measured aerosol growth very well for experiments performed at 10 and −10 °C, indicating that, in contrast to some previous studies, the oxidation rates of SO2 in a dispersed aqueous system can be well represented by using accepted rate constants, based on bulk measurements. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first laboratory-based measurements of aqueous phase oxidation in a dispersed, super-cooled population of droplets. The measurements are therefore important in confirming that the extrapolation of currently accepted reaction rate constants to temperatures below 0 °C is correct

    Community occupational therapy for people with dementia and family carers (COTiD-UK) versus treatment as usual (Valuing Active Life in Dementia [VALID] programme): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

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    BACKGROUND: A community-based occupational therapy intervention for people with mild to moderate dementia and their family carers (Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia (COTiD)) was found clinically and cost effective in the Netherlands but not in Germany. This highlights the need to adapt and implement complex interventions to specific national contexts. The current trial aims to evaluate the United Kingdom-adapted occupational therapy intervention for people with mild to moderate dementia and their family carers living in the community (COTiD-UK) compared with treatment as usual. METHODS/DESIGN: This study is a multi-centre, parallel-group, pragmatic randomised trial with internal pilot. We aim to allocate 480 pairs, with each pair comprising a person with mild to moderate dementia and a family carer, who provides at least 4 hours of practical support per week, at random between COTiD-UK and treatment as usual. We shall assess participants at baseline, 12 and 26 weeks, and by telephone at 52 and 78 weeks (first 40 % of recruits only) after randomisation. The primary outcome measure is the Bristol Activities of Daily Living Scale (BADLS) at 26 weeks. Secondary outcome measures will include quality of life, mood, and resource use. To assess intervention delivery, and client experience, we shall collect qualitative data via audio recordings of COTiD-UK sessions and conduct semi-structured interviews with pairs and occupational therapists. DISCUSSION: COTiD-UK is an evidence-based person-centred intervention that reflects the current priority to enable people with dementia to remain in their own homes by improving their capabilities whilst reducing carer burden. If COTiD-UK is clinically and cost effective, this has major implications for the future delivery of dementia services across the UK. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10748953 Date of registration: 18 September 2014

    Patterns of thanking in the closing section of UK service calls: marking conversational macro-structure vs managing interpersonal relations

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    I investigate patterns of usage of thanking formulae in the closing section of a corpus of 94 telephone calls made by tenants to a UK housing association. The data suggest that unilateral thanking is the norm when calls are institutionally and interactionally unmarked. In contrast, mutual thanking correlates mainly with the presence of interactional problems of various kinds, or, in a few cases, with features that are not problematic as such, but simply interactionally marked given the nature of the activity. When initiated by agents rather than by callers, thanking is frequently hearable as conveying an apologetic stance. Participants thus seem to orient to different thanking patterns as devices which may be used either to mark the preceding interaction as an instance of ‘business-as-usual’ or, if such is not the case, to restore interpersonal harmony or index awareness that aspects of the preceding interaction have otherwise deviated from situational expectations

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