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CALENDAR VARIATION MODEL FOR FORECASTING TIME SERIES DATA WITH ISLAMIC CALENDAR EFFECT
Get PDFThe aim of this paper is to develop a statistical model for explaining and forecasting the time series that contains Islamic Calendar effect. In time series literature, calendar variation is defined as a periodic and recurrent pattern with variation length period that usually caused by cultures and religions of people in a certain area. In Indonesia, the effect of the Eids holiday in many daily activities, such as transportation, inflation and consumption, is one example of calendar variations. This holiday happens on different month after three years or shift to previous month after at the same month on three years. This paper evaluates the disadvantage of seasonal classical time series model, such as Winter’s, Decomposition and ARIMA models, and develops a Calendar Variation model for forecasting time series that contain Islamic Calendar Effect. In this research, a real data about monthly sales of sardines are used as a case study. The results show that classical time series models, such as Winter’s, Decomposition and ARIMA models, cannot describe the calendar variation effect and yield invalid and unreliable forecast, particularly at the time (month) when the calendar variation happens. On the contrary, Calendar Variation model is a model that can explain precisely the impact of the calendar variation effect and gives valid and reliable forecasts.
 
KETEGARAN UJI-t TERHADAP KETIDAKNORMALAN DATA
Get PDFt-test used to test means of two populations assumes that each population is normally distributed. Theoretically, violation of the assumption makes the result of the test invalid. This research evaluates the robustness of the t-test on various value of sample size using three types of distribution: normal, symmetric non-normal, and not symmetric non-normal. Different computation techniques of t-value which depend on the variance of the two populations were also employed. The simulation showed that t-test used to test mean of two populations is not influenced by non-normality of the population distribution. The exploration of distribution of the difference between two samples means showed that its distribution was normal. Therefore, the robustness against non-normality of the t-test was the consequences of the difference between two sample means that normally is distributed. 
PENGARUH KUALITAS PELAYANAN DAN KEPUASAN MAHASISWA TERHADAP INTENSI MEREGISTRASI ULANG MAHASISWA
Get PDFThis article is written based on the research about the influance of service quality and student’s satisfaction toward the intensity of student’s re-registration. This research is a replica of Davidow’s research regarding timeliness, apology, redress, facilitation, credibility and attentiveness as an indicator of service quality that could influence the satisfaction as well as the intention to repurchase. The analisys method that’s being used in this research is the hierarchy analisys method. By using this analisys, the causal relation between variable and the hierarchy of each variables, whether direct or indirect relations, can be estimated. The population of this research is the student of UT in UPBJJ all over Indonesia. The result of this research indicates that service quality’s factor has a significant influence toward the student’s satisfaction; student satisfaction’s factor has a significant influence toward the intensity of student’s re-registration; service quality factor has a significant influence toward the intensity of student’s re-registration; both service quality and student satisfaction’s factor don’t have a significant influence toward the intensity of student’s re-registration
PENERAPAN ILMU EKONOMI DALAM PENGELOLAAN LINGKUNGAN HIDUP DAN PENGENDALIAN PENCEMARAN LINGKUNGAN
Get PDFEnvironmental pollution is inevitably caused by economic activities. However, the pollution can be controlled to obtain optimal pollution that provides maximum net benefit of the economic activities. Indentification of the polluters is needed when the optimal pollution is determined. Economic instruments can be used to insist the polluters to control their economic activities. Selection of economic instruments that will be applied will work properly if the value of environmental pollution is well known. In fact, the pollution is not marketable, and therefore, economic valuation of the pollution is required. Some techniques of valuation have been introduced, based on the types of pollution. Shortly speaking, economics can be applied in controlling pollution resulting from economic activities
LEGAL DESCRIPTION AND DATA FRAME FOR INDONESIA FINANCE HEALTH CARE PROJECTION (PT. ASKES, INDONESIA)
Get PDFTujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis kinerja dari Program Asuransi Kesehatan di Indonesia yang mengarah kepada efisiensi dan kesinambungan dari perencanaan program, apakah program tersebut telah memenuhi kebutuhan para anggotanya baik yang wajib maupun yang tidak wajib dari para pegawai negeri maupun non pegawai negeri. Mengingat begitu besarnya beban yang harus ditanggung oleh program dalam memenuhi kebutuhan jasa asuransi kesehatan, maka program tersebut harus menyesuaikan antara biaya-biaya yang dikeluarkan oleh program tersebut maupun pendapatan yang berasal dari kontribusi peserta program dan subsidi pemerintah. Dalam tulisan ini digunakan beberapa dokumentasi, literatur-literatur, wawancara, dan buku-buku manual.. Selain itu beberapa standard internasional seperti SNA 1993 (Social National Accounts 1993) dan Model Proyeksi Populasi dari United Nations dan ILO juga digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa metode proyeksi yang digunakan selama 50 tahun kedepan mengindikasikan terjadi peningkatan pada jumlah anggota dan tertanggung yang pada akhirnya berpengaruh pada jumlah permintaan pada jasa asuransi kesehatan. Setelah tahun 1997 yaitu dengan adanya krisis ekonomi di Indonesia yang menyebabkan penurunan GDP, Indonesia telah mengubah cara-cara lama yaitu ekspansi program menjadi penekanan pada kualitas pelayanan, sehingga kesinambungan dan pengaruh biaya-biaya yang dikeluarkan telah menjadi suatu tantangan sekaligus menjadi suatu ancaman, yaitu mengenai kelanjutan dan kesinambungan bagi berjalannya program tersebut secara jangka panjan
DAMPAK DEFISIT ANGGARAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI
Get PDFThe purpose of the research is to analyze the effect of budget deficit on economic growth. This analysis implements general evaluation estimator which is used in Didiek Susetyo researched (2001). Data economic variables used annually 1995 – 2005. Findings shows that budget deficit have negative effect on economic growth, while the lag of ratio export income (PDB) have positive effect, that indicate export probably to increase. The attention to uphold the economic growth that some condition, accountability and transparency of government budget, fairly state-local government fiscal balance, support to increasing export and through out of crisis the Indonesia people
KANDUNGAN NON NUTRISI DAN BILANGAN PEROKSIDA KERUPUK KULIT (KERUPUK JANGEK)
Get PDFThe aim of this research was to find the non nutrition compound of ‘kerupuk Jangek’. Several steps were used to determine: (1) the content of cholesterol, (2) the content of uric acid, (3) the content of peroxide, and (4) the hedonic value of ‘kerupuk Jangek’ storaged for several period of time. The HPLC with ELSD detector analysis showed that no cholesterol was detected in both samples of the beef skin crackers and the buffalo skin crackers. Using Photometer 4020, it was found that there was 0.64 – 0.7 mg uric acid in 100 gr of the beef skin crackers. The rate of peroxide in the beef skin cracker was 1.0 mg/kg sample after 4 – 5 weeks storage in 30°C condition. From hedonic analysis, it was found that ‘kerupuk Jangek’ being rejected by the panelist after 7 weeks storage in 30°C condition, and the content of peroxide was 1.83 mg/kg. It is suggested that, the skin crackers should be consumed before 7 week storage in room temperature and it is not recommended for hyperuricemia one
PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA 1997.1-2002.4: ESTIMASI DATA NON STASIONER
Get PDFThis article attempts to estimate the demand for Indonesian behavior money in 1997.1 – 2002.4 using non stationary technique. A new asymptotic theory of regression is introduced for possibly non stationary time series. These techniques are less dependent Johansen’s maximum likelihood of co integration but more depend on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of the equation included in the ECM. The dynamic OLS estimation proposed by Phillips & Loretan in 1991 is used to estimate cointegration. Meanwhile, Vector Autoregresion (VAR) is used to forecast the model which has an interelation time series. Since it desirable to include national income and exchange rate as regressor in the money demand function. To estimate demand function in the short run is used autoregressive distributed lag ECM/ADL ECM, which known Hendry type ECM. The results have find that there are non stationary condition in the time series data in the research. Meanwhile, the estimation with VAR, DOLS and ADL ECM is suggested that volatility of exchange rate impact to demand for Indonesian money
KONTRIBUSI TEKNOLOGI PENGENDALIAN HAMA TERPADU PADA PENURUNAN PENGGUNAAN PESTISIDA: KASUS PRODUKSI PADI DI YOGYAKARTA
Get PDFThe objective of this study is to examine the contribution of integtated pest management technology to significant decrease in use of pesticides in rice production. This study was conducted in Yogyakarta, where the technology has been intensively disseminated through farmer’s field school. Aggregate data shows that the use of pesticides declines significantly after the introduction of the technology. A constant elasticity of input demand model was employed in this study. The results of the study show that IPM technologi was increasingly disseminated during 1989-1998. At the same period, pesticide use declined significantly. The decrease in pesticide use was affected by the increase dissemination of IPM technology and the increase in relative price of pesticides
PARTISIPASI PUBLIK DALAM REKRUTMEN CPNS: MASALAH DAN KEMUNGKINAN
Get PDFThis article is focused on Good Corporate Governance study, especially on the behalf of public participation dimension in the government employee recruitment. The case analysis is conducted in qualitative methods during the government employee recruitment in 2005-2006. The case is monitored by the national printed medias. This article generally recommended to open the opportunities of public participation in the management of employee affairs. This article also to open access for public in order to supervise the implementation of government employee recruitment to minimize the irregularity of this process