OJS UNPATTI Publication Center (Universitas Pattimura)
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MULTIPLE STATE MODEL FOR PREMIUM CALCULATION OF THE ELDERLY LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE
No full textAs Indonesia enters an ageing population phase—with 12% of its population categorized as elderly—the need for financial protection in later life is increasingly urgent. The elderly population faces declining economic productivity, increased health risks, and a growing need for long-term care support. To address this, the present study develops an actuarial framework for calculating net annual premiums for elderly long-term care (LTC) insurance using the equivalence principle and a five-state multiple state model. Unlike previous research that focused on critical illness insurance, the proposed model reflects elderly care needs more realistically by incorporates transitions into and out of dependency where the elderly need assistance to perform daily activities. The results show that premiums rise significantly with later enrollment ages due to higher dependency and mortality risks along with shorter contribution periods. Furthermore, cash flow simulations based on 500 life table iterations demonstrate that LTC insurance can remain financially sustainable when accurately priced and supported by stable investment returns. This study offers a novel actuarial approach to developing sustainable LTC insurance products for Indonesia’s ageing population
TRUNCATED SPLINE SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION TO HANDLE MIXED PATTERN DATA IN MODELING THE RICE PRODUCTION IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE
No full textClimate change can affect rice production through changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, extreme weather events, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. A statistical model can be used to understand the correlation between rice production and factors that affect it. The existence of some patterns that are formed from independent variables and others that do not show data patterns due to volatility in weather element data makes semiparametric regression modeling more appropriate. In forming a parametric model, the data pattern needs to be regular to make the model more precise. Irregular data patterns are more appropriately modeled with nonparametric regression models. The existence of several patterns formed from independent variables to their dependent variables, and several others, does not show a particular pattern due to the volatility in climate data, making truncated spline semiparametric regression modeling more appropriate to use. This research aims to model rice production in several regions in East Java Province in 2022 using a semiparametric regression model. The data used were from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency and the Central Statistics Agency for East Java Province in 2022. The response variable is the rice production (tons) in 2022 in Tuban, Gresik, Nganjuk, Malang, Banyuwangi, and Pasuruan Regency (Y). The predictor variables are paddy harvested area (hectares), average temperature (℃), humidity (percent), and rainfall (mm). The semi-parametric spline truncated regression model is obtained by combining the parametric and non-parametric models based on truncated splines. The analysis showed a spline truncated semiparametric regression model with a combination of knot points (3,3,1) with a minimum GCV value of 12,642,272. The variables significantly affecting rice production were rice harvest area, temperature, air humidity, and rainfall, with an adjusted value of 98.522%
PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION FOR CUTTING ALUMINUM STOCK AND ITS COMPARISON WITH THE EXACT METHOD
No full textThe Cutting Stock Problem (CSP) is a common challenge in many industries, involving the optimization of material cutting to minimize waste while meeting customer demands. Various methods can be used to address this issue. This paper applies the heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method to solve CSP in the case of one-dimensional aluminum roll cutting. First, we identify feasible cutting pattern combinations. A mathematical model and constraints are then formulated based on these patterns. Next, the PSO algorithm is employed to determine the optimal combination of cutting patterns, minimizing material waste. The results yield the optimal aluminum roller cutting pattern. Furthermore, we compare the results between the PSO method and the exact method
FUZZY TIME SERIES IN FORECASTING EXPORT PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIAN SEAWEED PRODUCTS
No full textThis study applies the Fuzzy Time Series method to forecast the export performance of Indonesian processed seaweed, one of the country's main export commodities, contributing significantly to foreign exchange earnings. The Fuzzy Time Series method is employed for its simplicity and effectiveness in handling time series data with high variability and uncertainty—characteristics often found in export data. Unlike traditional statistical methods, Fuzzy Time Series does not require strict assumptions such as stationarity or normality, making it suitable for real-world applications. Although more appropriate for short-term forecasting, the method still provides meaningful insights for planning and policy. The analysis uses monthly export data from January 2013 to December 2021 to generate forecasts for January to December 2022. The results indicate a positive trend in export performance, with projections showing an increase from 1,707,070 kg in December 2021 to approximately 1,759,763 kg in January 2022. Despite Indonesia's processed seaweed still lagging behind some competitors in terms of competitiveness, its steady growth and rising demand abroad highlight its strong development potential. The forecasting results can be a strategic reference to optimize the commodity's development, increase its added value, and ultimately enhance the country's foreign exchange income
IMPUTATION OF MISSING DAILY RAINFALL DATA USING CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS (CNN) WITH SPATIAL INTERPOLATION
No full textAccurate rainfall estimation is crucial in climate analysis and water resource planning. Observational data from weather stations play a vital role in climatological analysis as they represent actual conditions at specific locations. However, many observation stations in Indonesia need more complete data, hindering analysis and data-driven decision-making. To address this issue, this study aims to impute missing rainfall data for BMKG stations in East Java using the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) method. Satellite data used in this study include ERA5 without interpolation and ERA5 with interpolation. The study employs a spatial interpolation approach. Data were split into training and testing datasets with various ratios: 95:5%, 90:10%, 80:20%, 70:30%, and 50:50%. The results show that the CNN method with spatially interpolated satellite data yields better results, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 7.50 on the training data and 7.05 on the testing data, indicating better generalization capability than the method without interpolation. The combination of CNN and ERA5 with interpolation was chosen for imputing missing rainfall data at BMKG stations in East Java due to its lower MAE
LEVERAGING JAVANESE BATIK MOTIVES IN TEACHING NUMBER PATTERNS: THE PRELIMINARY PHASE IN ETHNO-REALISTIC MATHEMATICS EDUCATION APPROACH
No full textTraditional textiles, such as Javanese Batik in Indonesia, are not only cultural artifacts but also repositories of mathematical knowledge. While previous studies have explored the geometric transformations embedded in Batik motives, little attention has been paid to their numerical patterns and educational potential beyond geometry. Addressing this gap, the present study investigates the mathematical structures—particularly numerical patterns—and ethical values inherent in Javanese Batik motives. The novelty of this research lies in uncovering the integration of cultural heritage and mathematics through ethnomathematical analysis, which remains underexplored in existing literature. Utilizing an ethnographic approach, including literature review, documentation, and field observations, the study identifies recurring numerical patterns and embedded cultural philosophies within Batik designs. These findings reveal that Javanese Batik offers meaningful contexts not only for teaching mathematical concepts but also for fostering character education through values such as discipline, patience, and harmony. The results suggest that these motives can be transformed into culturally responsive teaching materials, particularly e-modules for learning numerical patterns. This study contributes to the broader field of mathematics education by demonstrating how local cultural artifacts can support cognitive and affective learning goals, thus offering a novel pathway for integrating mathematics with cultural and moral education
EVALUASI PEMBELAJARAN MENULIS PUISI BERDASARKAN PERSPEKTIF GURU DAN SISWA DI SMP NEGERI 1 TARAKAN
No full textPendidikan memiliki peran penting untuk meningkatkan kualitas sumber daya manusia. Pendidikan akan berhasil jika guru dan siswa memiliki potensi yang baik dalam proses belajar dan mengajar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi pembelajaran berdasarkan perspektif guru dan siswa SMPN 1 Tarakan melalui angket dan wawancara. Metode yang digunakan meliputi wawancara, kuesioner, observasi, dan studi dokumentasi. Hasil penelitian menjelaskan bahwa evaluasi pembelajaran yang diterapkan oleh guru memiliki berbagai fungsi, yakni sebagai alat administratif, diagnostik, dan umpan balik. Pembelajaran puisi dinilai menarik serta membantu dari perspektif siswa pengembangan kreativitas dan ekspresi diri. Evaluasi secara berkala dilaksanakan untuk memastikan efektivitas pembelajaran dan peningkatan mutu pendidikan yang berkelanjutan
ANALISIS BAHASA STIKER, EMOTIKON DAN EMOJI DALAM KOMUNIKASI VIRTUAL MAHASISWA: KAJIAN SIBER PRAGMATIK
No full textSASTRA ANAK: PERIODISASI DAN IDEOLOGI KARYA SASTRA ANAK INDONESIA
No full textKajian terhadap sastra anak yang ditinjau berdasarkan periodisasi dan ideologi merupakan usaha untuk memetakan perjalanan sejarah perkembangan sastra anak Indonesia. Sastra anak muncul di Indonesia, dari zaman purba ditandai dengan karya seperti dongeng, hikayat, pantun. Pada era kolonial Belanda, anak-anak Indonesia disuguhi dengan karya sastra anak yang diimpor dari eropa, dengan mengusung tema impian dan masa depan. Pasca merdeka dan Zaman modern, sastra anak di Indonesia mengalami perkembangan pesat dengan lahirnya penulis sastra anak dari usia anak-anak yang mengusung tema seputar kehidupan masyarakat Indonesia pada masanya serta mencoba mengangkat tema tentang Indonesia modern
Integrasi Nilai-Nilai Islam dalam Ritual Rofaerwar: Pelestarian Budaya Lokal di Desa Lonthoir, Kepulauan Banda
No full textThe Rofaerwar ritual or sacred well cleansing is a cultural tradition held once every ten years by the people of Lonthoir Village, symbolizing reverence for ancestors and the preservation of a sacred water source. This practice represents a generational integration of Islamic values with local customs. The aim of this study is to explore the ritual’s implementation, symbolic meanings, and the role of Islamic principles embedded within. A descriptive qualitative method with an ethnographic approach was employed. Findings indicate that Rofaerwar is not merely a physical act but a spiritual and communal event imbued with meaning. Elements such as prayer, deliberation, and the use of Islamic symbols like kain gaja and karaso strengthen the ritual’s religious depth. The study demonstrates that Islamic faith and tradition coexist harmoniously without conflicting values. The implication is that the sustainability of such rituals requires active involvement of traditional leaders, youth, and religious institutions as part of a cultural development strategy. It is recommended to enhance local wisdom-based education to preserve core values amidst modern shifts