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Forecasting customer churn: Comparing the performance of statistical methods on more than just accuracy
Get PDFThere is a consensus that the best way to forecast customer churn is by statistical methods. It is, however, unclear when which statistical method is more appropriate. This study aims to provide a set of guidelines to data scientists and researchers who are interested in optimizing statistical methods. A systematic literature review revealed six most promising methods for churn forecasting and a selection of metrics which can be used to evaluate the performance of the methods. The six statistical methods are evaluated on five metrics of performance. The best-worst method (BWM), a multi-criteria decision-making method, is used to elicit the relative importance of the performance metrics. Based on the relative importance of the metrics and the performance of the methods, using additive value function, we find an overall value for each method based on which the forecasting methods can be ranked. Experimental analysis reveals that finding an overall value for each statistical analysis leads to a different ranking than when we use a single performance metric like accuracy or AUC. We argue that relying on an aggregated value, like the one we propose in this study, is more reliable than considering only one metric (a common practice)
Optimum Stop Spacing for Accessibility
Get PDFThe cumulative opportunities measure accessibility is defined as the number of opportunities reachable under a given time threshold. The spacing between transit stations is fundamental for accessibility by transit, yet the stations cannot be easily relocated in built-up areas. This paper examines the relation between transit stop spacing and person-weighted accessibility for an urban train route through an analytical model, and identifies that for each type of transit (e.g., given some combination of vehicle acceleration, deceleration, top speed, dwell time, platform type), an optimal stop spacing exists that maximizes accessibility; neither short nor excessive stop spacing are efficient in providing accessibility. Rail is used as example, though the model and findings are applicable to bus services as well. This paper brings attention to the importance of stop spacing in accessibility, and provides guidelines for transit planning for the operational improvement of transit accessibility
Thick Photographic Descriptions: Another Way of Telling Danish Welfare Landscapes
Get PDFThis paper explores how ‘nature’ – in the form of the landscapes of two housing estates in Copenhagen – was a central part of the vision of establishing a good life for every citizen: nature was being valued as an essential amenity and common ground for the creation of the new welfare vision for all.
Through an analysis of, and engagement with, historical documents – as well as situated photographic modes of inquiry – this investigation into welfare landscapes focuses on the less-acknowledged but vital forces that shape the green outdoor areas of the housing estates, framing details to emphasize the specificity of place and depicting a landscape for living where humans were central. This way of working can offer insights into multifarious spatial grounds, diverse interpretations of green spaces, and the construction of humane living environments designed for access to nature – but also provide civic opportunities and affordances for gathering, play, community, privacy, personal development and the like – all within these welfare landscapes
City of Words. A Multimodal Collaboration in ‘Writing Urban Places’
Get PDFThis contribution is a collaborative effort of two scholars from different disciplinary and geographic backgrounds joined by an interest in producing and communicating urban narratives. Their partnership resulted in an experiment that combines aspects of different research and communication methods into a hybrid end-result: a collaborative multimodal essay. First, the methodological particularities of this collaborative effort will be discussed and situated within number of established and emerging visual methods: the blending of methods, the researcher roles, the distinct modes of expression and the different positions vis-a-vis the site under scrutiny (‘visitor’ versus ‘resident’; ‘outsider’ versus ‘insider’). This section will then be followed by the actual multimodal essay on the city of Limerick as a distinct form of scholarly communication balancing between art and science
Deltaic Megaforms
Get PDFKenneth Frampton presented in the Raoul Wallenberg Memoria lecture in 1999 an overview of megastructures over time and space. He showed how megastructures respond to the landscape and are related to infrastructures. Especially the two examples in the Netherlands and Japan are interesting for relating the history and conceptualisation of megastructures to the deltaic conditions. Due to the technological approach in urbanisation the natural conditions have been neglected creating a new chaos between humans and nature. Besides the fact that the lecture by Frampton is extremely relevant today, it is also a lens towards this typology that we elaborate on by highlighting the history of the realisation of a deltaic megastructure. This can be taken as an example of extreme (landscape) engineering, which can be a way to respect and not trying to disturb nature. The megaform is therefore an urban landscape in its own merits, having a balanced but distant relation to nature. In this project section we elaborate the project by Jaap Bakema for Lage Land in Rotterdam. Here the original megastructure of the “mammoth” as a concept has been elaborated and developed as an urban neighborhood which is built in a typical ‘thick water’ polder of the Netherlands
Balancing the Discussion of Benefit Sharing in Transboundary Water Governance: Stressing the Long-Term Costs in an Empirical Example from Central Asia
Get PDFInternationally the benefit sharing approach is promoted to encourage cooperation in transboundary water governance. Costs of cooperation are so far under researched. Attention of few international studies is limited to benefit and cost sharing practices for dam projects. Here, the case study looks at long-term costs of cooperation in an empirical example from Central Asia. In the Syr Darya Basin, a compensation package for constructing the Toktogul Reservoir on the Naryn in upstream Kyrgyzstan required Uzbekistan to shift water withdrawals from small transboundary tributaries to the main river. The shift of water allocation created long-term costs for Uzbekistan. The paper highlights the challenges related to the originally perceived as beneficial compensation mechanisms (water swaps) within one basin and long-term cost implications. The need for revision of benefit sharing agreements to allow adaptation to new challenges is discussed. We stress the costs when existing benefit sharing arrangements are ignored whether in full or in part
Critical Technics in Architecture: A Cybernetic Approach
Get PDFIn this article, I posit that for the field of architecture to come to a distinctly architectural application of computational technologies it requires the elaboration of a concept of critical technics. This is premised on a systems-view of technical development, which highlights the importance of time and situatedness for any consideration of change, genesis or becoming. In order to then construct an architectural technicity that can grapple with the external character of technical development, I argue – using the philosophy of technology of Gilbert Simondon and Stafford Beer’s management cybernetics – that what is needed for this is a radical opening-up of the architectural process in the form of a democratisation, to augment architecture’s capacity for producing alternate futurity
Cooked Air: The Kitchen and its Exhalate
Get PDFSince 1996, ASHRAE Standard 62.2 has provided guidelines for residential ventilation. As ventilation becomes increasingly scientised, quantifiable, and reliant on hyper-specific equipment, technical literacy on ventilation has narrowed. The relationship between architecture, inhabitants and air management has become increasingly reliant on ventilation standards, in turn increasing reliance on technical specialists, and creating a gap in ventilation knowledge. Through an examination of ASHRAE Standard 62.2, this essay asks why is it that, as ventilation processes become increasingly measurable, there is an equal tendency to reverse awareness in relation to the human sensation, when the standard itself underlines the reality of both phenomenal and intellectual knowledge towards air quality assessment. Furthermore, if architecture’s domain centres on formal, aesthetic, and material logics, is an expanded literacy on air management necessary to address mechanical equipment within an architectural domain
The interplay between power structure and decision-making in supply chains: A systematic review
Get PDFThis study provides a systematic review of the literature and a conceptual framework of the interplay between power structure and supply chain decision-making. This systematic review studies 281 research papers published in peer-reviewed journals between the year 1994-2020 and uses content analysis and network visualization of major themes and keywords. Thematic analysis was conducted to examine growing discussion in the literature and to identify research gaps. The findings of this review highlight the component of power structure across business-to-business (B2B) relationships, including its impact on companies’ decision-making. Past literature indicates that power, originating from various sources, could be deliberately exploited and exercised by a company to influence the process and outcome of supply chain decisions. The findings demonstrate the mechanics of power and the prevalent domains of decision that are discussed in the organizational power literature: pricing, quality management, sustainability, alliance building, sourcing, investment, inventory, product development and power shifting efforts. The main contribution of this paper is that it provides a critical synthesis of the role of power structure in supply chain decision-making, identifying 7 novel themes and related future research avenues. For managers and decision-makers, this study helps to raise situational awareness to comprehend power structures among supply chain collaborators. This awareness may help managers to identify threats to and opportunities for future supply chain decisions
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