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Prediction, clustering and analysis of supermarket and retail energy demand data using machine learning techniques
Get PDFThis thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonThe need to improve efficiency and reduce the total energy demand in all sectors of the
economy is widely recognised. Amongst retail stores, supermarkets have higher intensity
energy use due to refrigeration and other in-store services, giving supermarket chains a
strong incentive to reduce energy demand across their portfolio of stores, including stores
being planned. Predicting energy demand helps planning, on-going energy management,
and detecting anomalous use patterns. However, literature about predicting supermarket
energy demand is scarce. Using historical hourly electricity data of 213 UK supermarkets
(same company), annual electricity daily load profiles of new supermarkets were predicted
using regression models, including neural networks and support vector machines. Exploiting
various uses by floor area and geographic location, prediction errors varied between 3–20%
depending on method, year, supermarket type, season and temperature intervals. Profiles
computed for warm periods (cooling required) were better predicted than cold periods
(heating required). A reduced-feature method accurately represented the electricity daily
load profiles of both the supermarket data-set and a data-set of 641 non-food retail stores.
Comparing the clustering and prediction experiments with results obtained using the whole
profile, showed that the errors only slightly increased. Thus, the reduced feature set is a
concise way to represent load profiles without including small variances that do not add
useful information. Finally, the relationship of the urban heat island effect and the electricity
demand of 38 supermarkets in Greater London was analysed. In Summer, supermarkets
located closer to the city centre had higher area-normalised energy demand than those farther
from the centre, suggesting that additional cooling was responsible. The limitations of
applying machine learning methods to this real-world problem showed that human expertise
for interpretation and understanding were essential. However, performing similar analyses
using a solely engineering approach would require significantly more time and resources
Assessing the environmental sustainability of consumer-centric poultry chain in the UK through life cycle approaches and the household simulation model
Get PDFData availability: I have shared the data in the article and the supplementary information.Chicken fillets, predominantly encased in disposable plastic packaging, represent a common perishable commodity frequently found in the shopping baskets of British consumers, with an annual slaughter exceeding 1.1 billion chickens. The associated environmental implications are of considerable significance. However, a noticeable gap exists concerning the household-level ramifications of chicken meat consumption, which remains a prominent driver (165 kg
per capita) of environmental impacts in the United Kingdom (UK). This study's primary objective is to integrate Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology with insights derived from a spectrum of interventions simulated within the Household Simulation Model (HHSM). The interventions that are simulated are influenced by various consumer behaviours related to the purchase, consumption, storage and disposal of chicken fillets. The overarching aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the environmental consequences associated with each intervention.
The research encompasses eight distinct household archetypes and the UK average, with a focus on discerning differences in their environmental influence. The introduction of shelf-life extension measures leads to a reduction in the overall environmental impacts (in
, with reductions ranging from 1 % to 18 %. Concurrently, waste treatment's environmental burdens can be curtailed by 9 % to 69 % for the UK average. Of the 12 interventions tested, the intervention that combines a one-day extension in the shelf life of open packs and a three-day extension for unopened packs leads to the greatest reduction in environmental impacts, at 18 % for the entire process and 69 % for the waste treatment. This intervention is estimated to yield annual reductions of 130,722 t of CO2 emissions across the entire process and 34,720 t of CO2 emissions from waste treatment, as compared to the default scenario. These findings demonstrate the importance of integrating consumer behaviour, food waste, and packaging considerations within the domain of food LCA research.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) on behalf of UKRI, “Reducing plastic packaging and food waste through product innovation simulation.” (NE/V010654/1)
Has the Transparency Directive benefited the United Kingdom?
No full textData availability: All data used in this study are publicly available from the sources identified in the paper.Post Brexit, this study contributes to assessing the efficacy of the European Union (EU) Transparency Directive (TPD) in attaining its regulator-specified goals for the United Kingdom (UK) capital market. During its adoption in 2004, the Commission of European Communities and the UK Government argued that TPD adoption should increase firms’ financial reporting quality and investment efficiency while decreasing firms’ cost of capital and information asymmetry. Using several alternative test variables in a sample of FTSE All-Share Index firms, I find evidence consistent with these four goals following TPD adoption. Additionally, I find that firms have lower cash holdings and higher dividend payouts following TPD adoption. Most of these trends do not reverse after the 2014 TPD amendment that abolished mandatory quarterly trading updates. This is the first study to examine the association between TPD adoption and firms’ cost of capital, investment efficiency, cash holdings, and dividend payout. Collectively, my results suggest that the primary regulatory goals of the TPD are being attained in the UK. Therefore, a case can be made for the relevance of the TPD and the resulting Disclosure and Transparency Rules in UK post Brexit.This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors
Information provision and financial incentives in Catalonia's public primary care (2010–2019): an interrupted time series analysis
Get PDFSupplementary Material: https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2666776224002692-mmc1.pdfBackground:
The relative efficacy of information provision versus financial incentives in improving primary care quality remains a critical, unresolved question. We investigated these two strategies in Catalonia's public primary care system from 2010 to 2019: an innovative online platform providing real-time quality indicator information and targeted economic incentives for achieving indicator goals.
Methods:
We conducted a comprehensive interrupted time series regression analysis on data from 272 primary care practices (5,628,080 patients). This analysis used linear regression models with Newey–West standard errors, and a sensitivity analysis including logit transformations to address ceiling effects. We evaluated 1) immediate post-intervention changes (step changes) in indicator results and inter-practice variability (coefficient of variation, CV), and 2) shifts in pre-intervention trends (slopes). We scrutinized 39 indicators after rigorous quality control: 23 novel (12 informed, 11 incentivized) and 16 derived from existing incentivized indicators. Robustness checks included 14 consistently incentivized and 10 non-intervened indicators. Overall, we assessed 63 indicators: 18 control, 13 follow-up, 9 quaternary prevention, 7 treatment, 7 diagnosis, 6 screening and 3 vaccination indicators.
Findings:
Informed indicators showed positive impacts in 75% (9/12) of cases, and incentivized indicators in 64% (7/11) of cases. Incentivized indicators displayed improvements in annual trends ranging from 6.66 to 1.25 percentage points, with step changes up to 8.87 percentage points. Information led to step changes ranging from 19.67 to 1.07 percentage points, along with trend improvements between 1.09 and 0.34 percentage points annually. Both interventions were associated with step reductions in variability (up to −0.18 CV reduction) and significant trend improvements. Derived indicators showed limited improvements in results or variability (31%, 5/16), with minor step increases up to 2.22 percentage points.
Interpretation:
Our findings reveal that information provision alone can match or even surpass the impact of financial incentives in improving care quality and reducing practice variability. This challenges conventional wisdom and offers a cost-effective, scalable approach to primary care quality enhancement, with far-reaching implications for global health policy.European Union, Horizon Europe, grant agreement number 101095424
Carburization-induced surface modification of Ti-6Al-7Nb alloy and its characterization
Get PDFData availability: Data will be made available on request.The Ti-6Al-7 Nb alloy and its carbide possess a wide range of engineering applications, therefore, it is utmost required to fabricate high-quality carburized layers on the alloy surface. In this study, the carburization of Ti-6Al-7 Nb alloy was conducted using molten salts (including Carbon Nano Tubes, LiCl, KCl, and KF) in a planetary ball mill, followed by placement in an alumina tube furnace under a nitrogen atmosphere at 1050 °C for various durations. Several characterization techniques were employed to analyze the results, including X-ray diffraction (XRD), field emission electron microscopy (FE-SEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and atomic force microscopy (AFM). The XRD results reveal that as the carburization duration increased, the alloy achieved complete carburization, forming a 120 µm thick layer of TiC0.3N0.7. After 24 h of carburization, the crystallite size of TiC0.3N0.7 increased, and the micro-strain decreased, indicating improved structural quality. The morphology of the carburized layer at shorter durations exhibits micro-cracks and defects due to incomplete carburization, where carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) could not effectively occupy in the grain boundaries of alloy. After 24 h, an agglomerated, cauliflower-like layer of TiC0.3N0.7 formed, enhancing the alloy's engineering properties. XPS confirmed the presence of carbon and nitrogen in the carburized sample, which contributed to the formation of the TiC0.3N0.7 layer on the alloy surface. AFM analysis supported the SEM findings, revealing broad islands with microgrooves on the carburized layer. These features indicate a thick and well-formed carburized layer, confirming the successful carburization of Ti-6Al-7 Nb. Overall, the study demonstrates that a 24-h carburization process at 1050 °C in molten salts under a nitrogen atmosphere effectively produces a high-quality, thick, and adherent TiC0.3N0.7 layer on Ti-6Al-7 Nb alloy, significantly enhancing its engineering properties.National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. RS-2022-00166565 and NRF2018R1A5A1025137)
Beyond Rubik: The Embodiment–Presence–Interactivity Cube Applied to Exercise
Get PDFData availability: Data and code are available via the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/47aue/).Evidence-based interventions are needed to promote engagement in physical activity. Audio-visual stimuli are frequently employed to enhance the exercise experience. Nonetheless, there is a paucity of research that examines the qualities of technological devices that are employed. Using the Embodiment–Presence–Interactivity Cube (Flavián et al., 2019) as a guiding conceptual framework, the aim of this registered report was to examine how each dimension of the cube (i.e., embodiment, presence and interactivity) influenced a range of exercise-related affective and perceptual variables. A counterbalanced within-subjects design was employed (N = 24). Participants completed 20-min exercise bouts on a cycle ergometer under four conditions: Television, augmented reality, 360° video and virtual reality. A repeated-measures ANOVA indicated a significant Condition × Timepoint interaction for affective valence (p = .046), with greater embodiment offered by technological devices leading to more positive responses. Analyses also indicated main effects of condition for exercise enjoyment, remembered pleasure and forecasted pleasure, with greater presence of technological devices leading to more positive responses. Technologies that combine high levels of embodiment, presence and interactivity (e.g., virtual reality) appear to yield several benefits in terms of in-task (e.g., affective valence) and post-task (e.g., remembered pleasure) responses for exercise conducted at ventilatory threshold
Introducing the Occupational Health and Safety Potential Midpoint Impact Indicator in Social Life Cycle Assessment
Get PDFData Availability Statement
Data are contained within the article and Supplementary Materials (https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/9/3844#app1-sustainability-16-03844).Occupational health and safety (OSH) is crucial for sustainable development, recognized by corporations, the European Union, and Sustainable Development Goals. This study introduces a characterization model for OSH in the social life cycle assessment (S-LCA) to support the quantification of OHS along product supply chains and sustainable decision making. The characterization model aims to provide a practical approach for assessing OHS at the product level with actual working hours or recommends a secondary approach with monetary data, when working hours are unavailable, to calculate the Occupational Health and Safety Potential (OHSP). The developed model was tested in a theoretical case study on shirt production in Europe and globally. The case study shows that the European shirt value chain resulted in higher OHSP values than the global shirt values chain. In addition, the model shows which life cycle stages and organizations highly contributed to the OHSP results. In both approaches, the shirt production stage contributed highly. Differences in results emerged based on the calculation approach, underscoring the model’s versatility, because increasing the complexity of calculating the CFs with monetary values will affect the results based on sectorial monetary output. Additionally, the study mentions benefits to the operationalization of social impact assessment and limitations when the developed characterized model is employed. Last, this study aids in offering a tool for organizations to meet the demands of the new Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive by quantifying and publicizing OHS data.This research received no external funding
New blood brings change: Exploring the link between rookie independent directors and corporate cash holdings
Get PDFData availability: Data will be made available on request.This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.This study examines the relationship between rookie independent directors (RIDs) and corporate cash holdings, using a sample of Chinese A-share firms listed on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges from 2006 to 2020. We further investigate the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty on this association. Our results reveal that the presence of rookie independent directors is positively and significantly related to corporate cash holdings, and that economic policy uncertainty amplifies this relationship. Importantly, we also demonstrate that firms with rookie independent directors exhibit improved operating performance when making cash holding decisions in the Chinese context. The study also finds that firms with greater growth opportunities tend to prefer RIDs, who bring new perspectives essential for leveraging these opportunities, leading to enhanced cash holdings. To ensure the robustness of our findings, we employ a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including alternative proxies, tests for reverse causality, two-stage least squares, propensity score matching, and entropy balancing. Based on our results, we recommend that shareholders in China carefully consider the role of RIDs in their governance structure, as they effectively monitor firm management and contribute to the protection of shareholder interests.“Funds for High-Level Talents of Xijing University (2019), Grant/Award Number: XJ19B02;; “The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities” in UIBE, grant number: CXTD12-01
‘The Emperor's New Clothes?’ Healthcare professionals’ perceptions of the nursing associate role in two UK National Health Service hospitals: A qualitative interview study
Get PDFData not available/The data that has been used is confidential: Due to the confidential nature and potentially sensitive nature of the questions asked in the study interviews participants were assured that the data collected would remain confidential and would not be shared.Supplementary materials are available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666142X24000389#sec0025 .Background:
The introduction of nursing associates in England (UK) in 2017 as a professional ‘bridging’ role aimed to mitigate chronic staffing shortages, enable career progression of healthcare assistants and release registered nurses to provide more complex care. Limited evidence exists about the alignment between the identity and purpose of nursing associate roles described by the UK independent regulator, the Nursing and Midwifery Council, and the expectations, obligations and team dynamics encountered in practice.
Purpose:
Investigate the perceptions of nursing associate roles through the views and experiences of role holders, registered nurses and healthcare assistants.
Setting:
Two National Health Service (NHS) Hospital Trusts in London, England (UK).
Methods:
For this registered service evaluation, data were collected via in-person, semi-structured interviews. Verbatim transcripts were coded inductively. An adapted framework analysis method, suitable for use with Excel, was applied to support the identification of cross cutting themes. We used the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research (SRQR) checklist for this study.
Results:
Eleven registered nurses, five nursing associates and five healthcare assistants participated. Their experiences seldom reflected the policy vision of the nursing associate role in practice. Several likened the nursing associate role to the fable of the ‘Emperor's New Clothes’ in which expectations and reality diverge. With this defined as the over-arching theme, four sub-themes were identified: (1) preparedness of organisational infrastructure to support this role; (2) credibility of the role in practice; (3) perceived organisational “blindness” to the ambiguities of the role and (4) increasing task orientation and segmentation in care delivery.
Conclusion:
There is a discrepancy between the identity of the nursing associate role as imagined in the policy agenda and its reality in practice. There is a need for more protected and well-defined training, clear role boundaries and accessible career progression pathways. Moreover, honest dialogue at an organisational and policy level must continue, so that the challenges and opportunities of the NA role are properly realised.
Tweetable abstract:
Emperor's new clothes! Experiences and views of new nursing associate roles in NHS (UK) acute hospitals @CarolynSpring3Imperial Health Charity / NIHR Imperial BRC within a pre-doctoral award for the first author
Influenced by the lives of others: narratives of role modelling throughout the start-up process
Get PDFThis study uses a narrative approach to explore how role modelling unfolds throughout the start-up process. Drawing on the experiences of 25 nascent and novice entrepreneurs, we illustrate how attributes of role models, role modelling outcomes, and related mechanisms change for entrepreneurs over time. Our emerging theoretical model highlights three distinctive role modelling narratives: ‘Taking the Leap’, ‘Learning the Trade’, and ‘Soothing the Nerves’. Our work expands existing role modelling research in entrepreneurship by looking beyond the impact of role models on entrepreneurs prior to starting-up and highlighting that role modelling continues to unfold and influence entrepreneurs throughout the start-up process
Data sources:
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