Economics. Ecology. Socium (E-Journal) / Економіка. Екологія.Соціум
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Network Modelling of Assessing the Impact of Threats to the Economic Security of Logistics Operators
Full text linkIntroduction. The increasing crisis phenomena affecting modern business structures and risks for the economic security of logistics organisations determine the relevance of their research. It is crucial to determine changes in the conceptual and categorical structure of enterprises’ economic security and threats to the economic security of logistics entities in an unstable financial situation. Activity-on-node (AoN) modelling was used as an analytical tool for developing project measures, allowing for effective planning of implementing activities to improve logistics organisations’ economic security.
Aim and tasks. This study aims to extend the presentation of the methodology related to the triple model of logistics actors (purpose-resources-time), which includes five stages of threat indicators in the context of ranking.
Results. Key factors influencing the economic security of a logistics entity have been identified, enabling the accumulation of resources in critical operational areas. This is achieved by prioritising economic security measures based on a quantitative (scoring) assessment of threat levels and the probability of their occurrence. According to experts, potential threats to the economic security of the Fozzy Group LLC (Ukraine) were identified to predict the corresponding threats based on their possible characteristics. The implemented measures to prevent potential threats to logistics activities showed an increase in the average comparable indicators by 21% (2022). The following trends in the probability of threat occurrence to the economic security of a logistics entity are identified: an increase in the percentage values of the indicators, specifically «very high» (6.0%), «high» (2.7%), «medium» (3.0%), «low» (2.0%), and «very low» (1.0%). The fingdings indicate the effectiveness of implementing measures to improve security, particularly regarding economic effects. The proposed approach for assessing threats to economic security in logistics activities prioritises and implements the most significant measures to strengthen security through a quantitative (scoring) assessment and using a network model (AoN) with plane representation.
Conclusions. It is emphasised that the main aspects of this article will allow domestic business structures to apply this network modelling approach, predict threats to economic security, and develop practical strategies for strengthening the security component in the context of modern challenges. These findings provide a promising fundamental basis for enhancing the economic security of logistics entities in the context of network modelling
EU Policies on Human Security, Environmental Sustainability, Strategic Foresight, and Digital Transition in EU Candidate Countries: Moldova and Ukraine
Full text linkIntroduction. The relationship between theoretical and conceptual frameworks has not been fully investigated in recent debates regarding European Union (EU) governance, human security, environmental sustainability, and strategic foresight. From this perspective, this paper addresses the evolving nature of European governance in the field and the dynamic framework of the collection, analysis, and monitoring of EU policies, which demonstrates that the central objective of the study is based on empirical analysis and interaction with annual policies.
Aim and tasks. This study aims to develop a matrix model for analysing the EU Strategic Foresight Reports (EU SFR Reports) released by the European Commission (EC) from 2020-2023. Since this research is based on reports published annually by the European Commission, the research plan develops an analysis matrix covering and monitoring annual reports. The study will also collect the most significant theoretical and scientific knowledge from specialised literature in the last five years.
Results. The analysis results revealed a focal dynamic of some topics in human security, environmental sustainability, and strategic foresight by quantifying, reporting, and evaluating diagrams, interpreting data, and monitoring concepts. An important part of the analysis focuses on how the two EU candidate countries for the European Union (Moldova and Ukraine) have employed legislative lines and directions regarding the relational nexus between human security, environmental sustainability, and strategic foresight.
Conclusions. In conclusion, it should be noted that empirical monitoring of the four European Commission reports for 2020–2023 (EU SFR) provides valuable findings regarding the impact of European policies, effectiveness, and institutional commitments, as well as the functional terms of security design, sustainability, and strategy. These results provide a standard for assessing future policies and demonstrate the importance of EU policies in influencing candidate countries' strategic vision and governance
Import Substitution Potential in the Weaving Industry of Azerbaijan
Full text linkIntroduction. The weaving industry, one of the primary industry branches of Azerbaijan, plays a leading role in the economic development of the republic and in meeting the needs of the local population. Although there is a raw material, labour force, and enterprises involved in developing the weaving industry, most domestic demand in this area is provided by the account of imported products. Cotton, the main material for weaving enterprises, is exported in the form of wool and yarn.
Aim and tasks. The purpose of the study is to learn the opinions on import substitution, to get acquainted with the state of Azerbaijan's weaving industry, to examine statistical information about the availability of the raw material base and the structure of production, to analyze import and export data on weaving products, to research the opportunities import substitution and to make proposals for increasing local production in terms of import substitution.
Results. Following the goal set in the study, the opinions of scientists on import substitution were studied, the state of the weaving industry was introduced, import and export indicators on weaving products were analyzed, the opportunities for import substitution were investigated, and suggestions were made of increasing local production that replaces imports. The weaving sector’s share in the general industry was 0.52% in 2018, and this share increased by 0.15% and reached 0.67% in 2021. As a result of the research on the weaving products market of Azerbaijan, it was determined that despite the presence of raw materials, labour force, and enterprises in this production area, the domestic production capacity was used at a shallow level, and most of the domestic demand was met by imports.
Conclusions. Cotton, the primary raw material for product production, is exported with partial processing but without turning into a finished product. The importance of a comprehensive approach to solving existing industry area’s problems, strengthening customs control over imports, and granting concessions to companies were emphasized to increase production, expand the range and replace imports. Applying a strategic and systematic approach to the development of the industry area, implementing systematic measures and strict control over the implementation, and creating a favourable business environment for the industry development were brought to attention as proposals
Assessment of Intellectual Potential of the European Population
Full text linkIntroduction. The global practice of economic growth in European countries shows that their determining factor is the formation and development of the intellectual potential of society. Recent changes in the structure of the economy, particularly a growing share of intangible products and information technologies, have necessitated changes in scientific approaches to economic security issues in a country. Objective processes influenced by the growing role of the knowledge economy have changed the world's attitude to priorities in favour of the intellectualisation of labour based on innovation, the introduction of high-tech processes, and the integration of science, education, and entrepreneurship. There is a fundamental reassessment of the human factor, making intelligence and high professionalism of the workforce a priority commodity in the labour market.
Aim and tasks. This study aims to propose the main directions and a set of organisational and economic measures aimed at creating conditions for the efficient use and development of intellectual potential at all levels as the foundation of the economic security of EU countries.
Results. The study uses the methodology for developing the model to calculate ranking coefficients of the impact of elements of intellectual potential formation on economic growth in EU countries (GDP per capita). It has been established that the most significant influence on the formation of intellectual potential on GDP per capita of EU countries is exerted by the intelligence quotient (RCF C1y= 465,387), education level index (RCF C12y = 434,390), human resources with tertiary training and engaged in technology and science (RCF C5y = 389,842), population with tertiary education (RCF C6y = 297,585), share of R&D personnel and researchers in the total active population (RCF C3y = 290,678), and participation rate in education and training (RCF C8y = 285,960).
Conclusions. The study proved that the key to this should be the growing role of the state in motivating the employed population to intellectual self-development and maximising the use of intellectual potential in the labour sector. A comprehensive assessment has shown that the intellectual potential of the employed population is not fully utilised in the economies of European countries, which worsens the prospects for accelerating innovation development and economic growth. Further research should be carried out to increase the competence of the organisation as a result of attracting new technologies and methods of intellectual potential management in accordance with rapid changes in the environment
Management and Development of Depository Activities Under Martial Law in Ukraine
Full text linkIntroduction. Depository activities are integral to developing a country's financial system and ensure the accounting, preservation, and circulation of securities. The effective management of depository activities is critical for maintaining the stability of the financial market, protecting the rights of investors, and maintaining trust in financial institutions. In Ukraine, the issue of the effective management of depository activities becomes especially important for ensuring the stability of the stock market and maintaining investment attractiveness for international investors, as it requires a comprehensive approach that combines the legal and economic tools necessary to reduce existing risks that require the adaptation of legal regulations and the implementation of new management strategies to ensure the continuity and security of depository operations.
Aim and tasks. The aim is to study the features of the expansion of depository operations in Ukraine, considering martial law, economic challenges and threats that have affected the functioning of financial agents and the stock market.
Results. An analysis of the factors that influenced the activities of depository institutions during war and economic crises was carried out. The efficiency of accounting and depositors' activities in depository institutions was analysed. The directions for the optimisation of the depository activities of Ukrainian depository institutions are substantiated. During the 3rd quarter of 2023, the volume of depository assets increased by 7.2% compared to the same period of 2021, the volume of accounting operations increased by 41.6%, and the number of depositors' accounts increased by 76.5%, which indicates the positive dynamics of depository activities on the stock market of Ukraine. The correlation coefficient was 0.088, indicating a weak positive relationship between the volume of accounting transactions of depository institutions and the number of accounts of depositors of depository institutions.
Conclusions. The study analyses the grouping of negative factors (military action, constant shelling, devaluation of the currency, inflation, decrease in investment attractiveness of institutions, and low level of income of citizens) that influenced the development of depository activities in Ukraine under martial law, as well as the efficiency of depository institutions, through the analysis of individual performance indicators. The results of the study are essential for joint-stock companies that issue securities regularly and depository institutions to identify critical areas for the development of depository activities in the war and post-war periods and to ensure a more transparent and efficient system of attracting investors and households to the investment activities of the stock market
Approaches to Modelling Marketing Strategies in E-Commerce
Full text linkIntroduction. Increasing the efficiency of business activities requires developing a marketing strategy using e-commerce to attract a wide range of customers and maximise the company's income. The key marketing metric for most companies is the customer lifetime value indicator, which is why studying approaches to forecasting this indicator in e-commerce requires special attention, considering the changing business operation environment.
Aim and tasks. The study aims to develop approaches to modelling the marketing strategy of e-commerce enterprises. The tasks are a comparative characterisation of modern marketing planning tools and an empirical analysis of the possibilities of using the BG/NBD model for marketing planning in e-commerce companies, considering the need to implement scenario marketing planning in unstable conditions.
Results. A comparison of the characteristics of the main marketing planning tools was conducted according to features such as content and focus, functional purpose, and planning period, which allows more purposeful use of these tools to solve specific tasks. In order to automatically obtain the required data format for modelling, a Visual Basic program was developed, a forecast of customer behaviour was built, and an indicator of customer transactions was determined for further calculation of customer lifetime value (CLV). During the simulation, four parameters of the BG/NBD model were evaluated, and the maximum value of the logarithmic likelihood function equal to 14460.54 was obtained. The expected number of transactions (forecast time = 26 weeks) was determined for each client from the database. After calculations the information was received, the selected client will make 2.35 transactions during the forecast period of 55-80 weeks. The recommended algorithm for using the BG/NBD model as part of a scenario approach for forecasting the cost of the customer's life cycle allows for more flexible forecasting of digital business revenues and building an optimal marketing strategy.
Conclusions. An empirical study of the possibilities of using the BG/NBD model for marketing planning in e-commerce companies showed that, for the simulation of indicators that affect a company's marketing strategy, it is crucial at the initial stage to convert the database of customer purchases into the input format required for modelling. Using a scenario approach allows e-commerce enterprises to carry out variable marketing planning and reduce risks under growing uncertainty. A well-designed marketing strategy that can be adapted to different business development scenarios enables an e-commerce company to increase its sales
Labour Market of Ukraine and Meeting Post-War Workforce Supply Market Demands
Full text linkIntroduction. Full-scale military actions in Ukraine increased the dynamics of changes in the labour market, caused significant uncertainty in influencing factors, and increased the imbalance of supply and demand in the labour market, which was characterised as a crisis even before the invasion. This strengthened the need for a relevant assessment of the needs of the Ukrainian labour market and the possibility of its personnel support and management of labour resources, taking into account the risks for the country's economy and post-war reconstruction.
Aim and tasks. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the labour market of Ukraine in the post-war period and substantiate ways of meeting the market's personnel needs using the example of the construction and IT industries. The tasks of this study are to identify the factors affecting the labour market in the post-war period, assess the dynamics of changes in the balance of demand and supply in the labour market in the post-war period, and develop a mathematically formalised approach to the adaptive assessment of the labour market.
Results. The developed mathematically formalised approach to assessing the imbalance of the labour market in individual areas allowed the stabilisation of the demand and supply of the IT labour market in 2026 at a level 1.496 times lower than the maximum in 2023. In the construction industry, differentiation in sectoral priorities of post-war reconstruction has been determined, as evidenced by the expected shortage of personnel in this industry, which is 2.15 times higher than the indicator for all industries. This is also indicated by the differentiation in the demand for qualified workers from 20% to 60% for large and small construction enterprises.
Conclusions. The identified reasons for the uncertainty of factors affecting the labour market (losses in the quality of labour resources and forced migration) proved that post-war reconstruction would require an adaptive approach to managing labour resources at all levels. The lack of personnel in the post-war period will require a change in the concept of ensuring the competitiveness of domestic enterprises by using cheap labour. It was determined that the demand for qualified personnel in the post-war period for all industries would grow, which is confirmed by the dynamics of the index of change of employees, which is 30% higher for qualified workers than unskilled workers. Significant differentiation by micro-specialty influences the gap between demand and supply, which does not consider the market's needs
Assessment of Power Equipment Operational Safety in the Sustainable Management of Residual Lifespan
Full text linkIntroduction. Ensuring the safe operation of energy facilities is a critical issue at all life cycle stages. It is associated with the adoption of management decisions when rescheduling and assessing the remaining resources, which are made based on a comprehensive assessment of the technical condition of the equipment, taking into account the economic efficiency and environmental requirements for further operation, which is the basis for technical and economic assessments.
Aim and tasks. This study aims to develop a technical and economic assessment of the safe operation of power equipment to ensure sustainable management of the remaining service lifespan.
Results. An algorithm for assessing pipeline system elements by the coolant environment is proposed, which allows for the pipeline load and changes in erosion and corrosion caused by coolant movement. It was proposed that the equipment be systematised by safety class and coolant. When conducting a technical and economic assessment, these parameters and the costs of extending the service life and upgrading the existing equipment were considered in the standard calculations of a certain type of equipment. For this purpose, mathematical models for calculating the residual life for each type, obtained and confirmed based on empirical studies, are proposed. Research findings into ensuring the reliability and safety of operation with various heat carriers have shown that it is necessary to consider low-cycle and high-cycle loads and erosion processes. It was found that the erosive wear rate is 0.3-0.4 mm/year for bending sections of the main circulation pipeline, where maximum loads occur relative to low-cycle and vibration loads, and the stress is 212.5 MPa when assessing the residual life of 7 years.
Conclusions. The cost-effectiveness of reassigning the service life is reasonable, as it does not require additional investment in upgrading or replacing equipment subject to annual technical diagnostics. The systematisation of pipelines, improved codifiers, lifespan assessment models, and algorithms for evaluating the remaining life under various loadings enhance the regulatory framework for safe nuclear power plant operations and support technical and economic evaluations for extending their lifespan
Management and Marketing of the Wartime Agribusiness in Ukraine
Full text linkIntroduction. Full-scale military actions led to the need for radical changes in the management of agricultural enterprises. Effective management of Ukrainian agribusiness under conditions of military aggression can contribute to the stability of revenues to the country's budget and strengthen national security, particularly in providing the population with food and jobs in depressed rural regions. The state of war in Ukraine determines the peculiarities of the activities of agricultural enterprises and, accordingly, forms the peculiarities of agricultural management, which requires scientific research.
Aim and tasks. The study aims to develop directions and tools for managing agricultural enterprises in the conditions of war in Ukraine. The task of the study was to develop a mathematical model of operational change in the goal of an agro-enterprise, establish conditions for changing agribusiness goals, determine wartime requirements for agribusiness management, and assess the impact of the war on the components of the resource potential of agricultural enterprises.
Results. A mathematical model of the operative change in the purpose of an agro-enterprise under the conditions of acquisition of integral risks, including the risk of military operations, of a degree greater than 50%, has been developed. The study of the components of the resource potential established the following: the growth of the dynamism of the land market, the acceleration of the redistribution of land ownership - the alienated area of land in 2023 compared to 2022 has almost doubled; the share of individual entrepreneurs in the total number increased by 19.8% in 2022; a decrease in the level of provision of labour resources, which has long-term and short-term dimensions related to military operations, reducing the volume of imports of agricultural machinery by approximately 30–35%. The implementation of effective management requires a comprehensive approach to the formation of systemic prerequisites for agricultural activity and the improvement of the structure of agricultural production, taking into account the impact of the war in Ukraine.
Conclusions. The developed mathematical model makes it possible to change the goals of agricultural enterprises in an operational manner and form an appropriate level of competitiveness to ensure the viability of agricultural enterprises. The proposed directions and management tools of agricultural enterprises will ensure an increase in the efficiency of agribusiness management during wartime conditions. Evaluation of the impact of the war on the components of the resource potential of agricultural enterprises will increase the efficiency of resource use
Features of the Development of International Trade in Tourist Services
Full text linkIntroduction. The relevance of studying the peculiarities of the development of international trade in tourist services is determined by the significant role of world tourism in the structure of the global economy. In the conditions of a complex international political situation, which is dynamically changing, it is crucial to identify the vectors of the development of the tourism industry to determine the future structure of the macro-regional distribution of tourist flows.
Aim and tasks. The purpose of this study is to identify the dominant factors and prospects for the development of international tourism business in the conditions of modern global economic and political instability to determine the most favourable marketing strategies for interaction in the international market of tourist services by extrapolating the results to the possibilities of post-war recovery of the tourism industry in Ukraine.
Results. An analysis of international tourism arrivals showed that the average annual growth rate of the industry from 1995 to 2020 average annual growth of international tourist arrivals was more than 4 per cent. Over the estimated period from 1995 to 2023, the average arrival rate decreased to 2.46 per cent. Macro-regions are considered the most promising for the scaling of international tourism, as well as the factors that will contribute to this and can inhibit economic processes. Special attention is paid to the positioning of Ukraine during the post-war recovery of the tourism industry. Forecast indicators indicate that international tourist arrivals to Ukraine could reach 61 million people in the tenth year of the post-war period. An alternative strategy for promoting national tourist products and brands in the target markets of Central and Eastern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East was proposed, and the feasibility of continuing the promotion of Ukraine as a tourist brand was substantiated.
Conclusions. This study confirms the vector of the shift in global tourist flows under the influence of a number of factors that deepen the contradictions between the Global South and the North, revealing key trends in the growth and displacement of international tourist flows among countries belonging to two opposite camps. The directions of institutional and structural changes required to restore international tourism in Ukraine in the post-war period to strengthen Ukraine's position in the global tourism market are proposed