Journals of UMT (University of Management and Technology, Lahore)
Not a member yet
397 research outputs found
Sort by
Economic Policy Strategies and Development Outcomes in the Middle East, 1950–2000: Evidence from Oil Revenues, Conflict, and Institutional Dynamics
No full textThis research looks at how economic policy has affected the paths of Middle Eastern countries from 1950 to 2000 in the light of severe oil price changes, political upheaval and recurrent instability. The research using three key development lenses, structural transformation, rentier-state theory and institutional economics, demonstrates their analytical relevance in the study. Oil revenues gave economies more power but also exposed them to more volatility. Also, recurring wars and persistent political instability imposed heavy and long-lasting economic and social costs on these countries. Countries that strengthened their institutions and sought real diversification were better able to absorb shocks and maintain growth over time. The study employs a balanced panel for seven economies, and uses history and econometrics to test these propositions. The analysis uses well-known macroeconomic measures which are growth, unemployment and inflation. Also included are measures of oil income, intensity of conflict, and quality of governance. Evidence from fixed-effects and difference-in-differences models supported by interaction terms and instrumental-variable checks suggests that while oil windfalls may induce an initial growth spurt, in the longer run, they make countries more vulnerable. Similarly, while conflict may have an instantaneous negative growth effect, in the longer run, conflict depresses growth. On the other hand, enhancing institutional quality significantly multiplies the capacity of states to manage volatility and support recovery. According to the findings, the policy agenda should focus on building stronger institutions while managing realistic diversification and fiscal management system. So, it should have the capability of smoothing commodity cycle issues. Further, it remains highly relevant to the region while the world is gradually moving toward a post-oil world economy
Probing Real Economic Growth through Institutional Quality and Fiscal Policy in Pakistan
Full text linkThe current study examined the effect of institutional development and fiscal policy on real economic growth. It employed Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique to address the issue of potential endogeneity, which may arise in the presence of political institutions. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to construct an index of institutional quality. The real economic growth in Pakistan covering the period from 1984 to 2020 provides ample evidences that (i) tax rates have negative and insignificant impacts on real economic growth (ii) government expenditures on social indicators helps in augmenting real growth (iii) link between institutional quality and real economic growth is positive but insignificant (iv) increase in investment pushes up real growth as well as lagged value of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also helps in promoting growth, and (v) trade openness restricts real growth. Accordingly, the study suggested that government should enhance expenditures on social indicators. To fulfill this purpose, there is need to increase tax-to-GDP ratio through expanding the tax base; not the tax rate. Furthermore, there is also a need to restructure certain main political institutions which help to improve economic growth, accountability, equity, security, and transparency
Apple Production of Pakistan: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting
Full text linkApple is an important and popular fruit because it contains fiber, calories, vitamin C, and multivitamins, all of which are beneficial for human health. The demand for apples is increasing due to an increase in the population of Pakistan. Therefore, it is imperative to forecast apple production and to estimate the future trends of its production and consumption in the country. Hence, this study is concerned with forecasting the apple production of Pakistan. For this purpose, various time series models are fitted on the historical time series data (1958-2017) and the search for the best model is conducted based on the model selection criteria. The results indicate that the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average or ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model is a suitable time series model to forecast the apple production of Pakistan. The assumptions of the selected model are also evaluated. On the basis of the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model, the apple production of Pakistan is forecasted to be 697.651 thousand tons in 2030, under the assumption that no irregular pattern occurs
Environmental Attitude and Green Competitive Advantage: Mediating Roles of Green Production Strategy and Environmental Management Accounting in Pakistan’s Manufacturing Sector
Full text linkThe current study aimed to explore the nature of manufacturing sector in Pakistan, the interactions between Environmental Management Accounting (EMA), attitude towards risk, Green Competitive Advantage (GCA), and Green Production Strategy (GPS). Therefore, in line with the quantitative research paradigm, the study explored how these constructs exist within the framework of environmental attitudes within Pakistan’s relatively heterogenous manufacturing environment. The results suggested that a positive attitude towards risk facilitates both EMA and GPS, leading towards a competitive advantage. Nevertheless, the association between attitude towards risk and GCA is not very strong, suggesting areas worth further investigation. GPS findings underscored the necessary and compelling need to promote an environmental management culture with regard to sustainability within enterprises. In light of certain issues that are currently besetting manufacturing industries in Pakistan, such as issues of quality and compliance among others, this study offered insights to policymakers in the industry who wish to upgrade on their efficiency and competitiveness
Impact of Mansehra-Muzaffarabad-Mirpur (M3) Expressway on Tourism in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K)
Full text linkRoads serve as the major means of transportation for goods, services, andmobility across Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJ&K), which also hassignificant tourism potential. The construction of the M3 expresswayunder China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is currently awaitinggovernment approval. Literature indicates that no study has examined theimpact of the CPEC project on tourism growth so far. Therefore, it isessential to investigate its effect on tourist arrivals in AJ&K. The currentstudy aimed to explore residents’ perceptions regarding the impact ofconstructing the Mansehra–Muzaffarabad–Mirpur (M3) expressway ontourist inflow in AJ&K. Moreover, it assessed whether the M3 expresswaywould improve connectivity in AJ&K. This research was motivated by theexisting gap in studies and the importance of understanding public opinionon megaprojects. Furthermore, it helped in assessing local perspectives asto how the construction of the M3 expressway influences touristmovement and is valuable for policymakers to forecast the effects of newroad projects on tourism development in AJ&K. The study gatheredprimary data from 200 local respondents across all three divisions ofAJ&K via a structured questionnaire, and the Binary Logit regression wasestimated using the Maximum Likelihood method. The findings suggestedthat the construction of the M3 expressway under CPEC enhancesconnectivity and boosts tourism in AJ&K
Interplay of Change Climate and Participation in the Change Process and its Effect on Explicit Reactions and Consequences: Revolution in Pakistani Banks
No full textIn today’s competitive environment, organizational change is crucial for survival. Despite its necessity, the majority of change initiatives fail. This negatively affects employee morale and commitment. This research investigates key factors that facilitate successful change implementation, focusing specifically on the impact of change climate and participation in the change process. It examines how these variables influence affective commitment to change, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment while implementing a high-paced and high-pressured strategic change, namely revolution. Grounded in Theory E, variance theory, and change management theory, the study develops a conceptual model and adopts a deductive, exploratory design within a positivist framework. The Pakistani banking sector serves as the research context, using multi-stage sampling and a structured questionnaire for data collection. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) via SmartPLS is employed for analysis. The findings reveal that a supportive change climate and active participation in the change process significantly enhance affective commitment to change, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment, contributing to the effective implementation of revolution. This research adds to the mainly western-centered literature by offering insights from Pakistan, a developing economy. The study’s exclusive focus on ‘revolution’ as a strategic change highlights its novelty, though suggesting that other types of strategic change warrant further exploration
Performing Transgender Desire Through Cross Dressing: Socio-Economic Factors and Implications of the Phenomenon in Pakistani Society
No full textDespite being socially disapproved and contradictory to the cultural and religious values, the practice of cross dressing is in vogue in Pakistani society. This qualitative research study aimed at in-depth exploration of phenomenon of Male-to-Female (MTF) cross dressing as well as its socio-economic implications for the family life of cross dressers. The study also intended to explore factors consequential to the raising trend of MTF cross dressing in Pakistani society. The study was conducted in twin cities i.e. Islamabad and Rawalpindi. A sample of twenty (20) MTF cross dressers was selected through purposive sampling technique. Interview guide was used as a tool of data collection. The collected data was analyzed through thematic analysis. Findings of the study revealed that inspiration & role modeling, peer group influence, amusement & entertainment, non-satisfaction with the gender identity and economic miseries were some major causative factors consequential to the MTF cross dressing. The findings also divulged that dual gender performance has severe socio-economic repercussions including migration, non-acceptance by the family & society, Non availability of favorable work conditions, stigmatization & victimization, facing discriminatory attitude, physical & sexual assault, sense of deprivation regarding rights, social security as well as economic issues. Dual gender performance has also strong negative influence on the family life of cross dressers. The study recommends that it is need of the hour to develop a mechanism of registration & certification for the real trans-people through their medical checkup so that effective policies, based on actual trans-population, may be formulated for the welfare of transgender community as well as to protect & safeguard their fundamental human rights
Impression Management Theory as a Panacea for Public Budgeting Process
No full textThis study employs impression management theory, i.e., data visualization tools, to understand public budgeting preparation better. Our study uses a powerful graphical technique, the DiGraph, to effectively allocate public resources for the greater good, where edges have a direction, indicating a one-way relationship between nodes. Based on the amount, the directed sub-graphs show which sub-resource cost and resource cost can be reduced, which sub-resource, resource, sub-activities, and activities can be dropped, and lastly, which objective is entirely/partially not achievable because of the significant cuts of funds from the government or funding agencies.
Key Words: Public Budgeting, Impression Management Theory, Graph Theory, Budgeting Process, DiGrap
Effect of procurement fraud detection and prevention on organizational integrity in public sector organizations in Nigeria
Full text linkThis study examines the effect of procurement fraud detection and prevention on organizational integrity within public sector organizations in Nigeria. Specifically, it investigates the impact of document examination, segregation of duties, and whistleblower mechanisms on organizational integrity. Using a survey research design, the study targets 844 chartered accountants with forensic certifications and executive management staff across 10 prominent public sector organizations in Nigeria, all with significant procurement activities. A stratified sampling technique was employed, yielding a sample size of 271 respondents determined by the Taro Yamane formula. Data were collected through a Likert scale questionnaire and analyzed using multi-linear regression to assess the relationship between document examination, segregation of duties, and whistleblower mechanisms (independent variables) and organizational integrity (dependent variable). Findings reveal that all three mechanisms significantly and positively influence organizational integrity, with an overall model fit of R² = 0.83. Document examination exhibited a positive impact (β = 0.30, p < 0.05), highlighting its role in reducing fraud risks through transparency in procurement processes. Segregation of duties showed a strong effect (β = 0.35, p < 0.05), suggesting that delineating responsibilities limits fraud opportunities. Similarly, whistleblower mechanisms (β = 0.31, p < 0.05) were found to foster a safe environment for reporting unethical behavior, thereby enhancing integrity. The study concludes that robust document examination, stringent segregation of duties, and effective whistleblower systems are essential to safeguarding organizational integrity in Nigeria’s public sector. It contributes to knowledge by emphasizing these mechanisms as critical elements in fraud prevention. It recommends that public sector organizations enhance staff training on document examination, strictly enforce role boundaries, and establish anonymous whistleblower channels to encourage ethical practices. These measures could strengthen integrity frameworks, reducing fraud risks and enhancing public trust in Nigerian public institutions
Effect of Portfolio Turnover on Fund Performance: Evidence from Pakistan Shariah-compliant Equity Funds
Full text linkThe current study aimed to examine the effect of portfolio turnover on the performance of Shariah-compliant equity funds of Pakistan. On the basis of literature, five additional explanatory variables were included specifically expense ratio, age, size, risk, and fund flow. Panel data regression was applied on the data of 10 Shariah-compliant equity funds of Pakistan for the time period July 2014 to June 2018. Panel data regression model was selected on the basis of two sequential tests namely Hausman test and fixed effects test. The results indicated a significant positive relationship between fund performance and portfolio turnover, which served as evidence to articulate portfolio turnover as a rewarding activity. Moreover, results showed significant positive relationships of fund performance with risk and fund flow, indicating that fund performance improves by making high risk investments and attracting large fund flow. This study is distinctive as it endeavored to examine the turnover-performance relationship in respect of Shariah-compliant equity funds of Pakistan. Furthermore, the study considered only Shariah-compliant equity funds; consequently, this relationship may be studied in future for other types of mutual funds of Pakistan.