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Forecasting Volatility in Copper Prices Using Linear and Non-Linear Models
Get PDFAbstract—Copper is one of the oldest and highest traded commodities on the Indian commodity market. Its price is based on demand and supply. With the ‘Make in India’ and ‘Smart Cities’ project in process there is a large amount of copper requirement in speculation, which in turn shall cause a sudden increase in demand and bring volatility in copper prices. Therefore, there is a need to study the price behaviour of copper spot prices in India. The study uses data from April 2007 to September 2016 of copper spot prices on Multi-Commodity Exchange. We conduct Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and Multi-layer Prediction (MLP) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method for predicting volatility in copper prices. The study finds MLP neural network provides better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA on the basis of Root Mean Square (RMS) errors and forecast errors
Connecting Non-Financial Human Resource Management Students with a Crash Course in Finance in a Virtual Learning Environment
Get PDFTraditionally, business and management subjects have been linked to what is known by one's culture and business traditions in terms of how business dealings are operated and managed according to given and proven business and managerial theories, concepts, ideas, and overall best practices. However, as more and more technology has been introduced into today's modern workplace, changes to the overall business landscape have gone from domestic to global to now virtual opportunities. Consequently, many of the traditional business and management fields have been undergoing a metamorphosis in order to complete with the growing needs in today's busines world. In particular, the field of Human Resource Management (HRM) has been transitioning from the role of just managing the human capital (employees) in an organiztion over to becoming more of a strategic partnership. Thus, HRM professionals today have to master more content knowledge, skils skills, and be prepared for additonal roles in the workpace. This paper will overview how one of these new roles in the area of finance is being placed into the realm of HRM professionals and how educational educations are meeting the need of teaching finance basics to non-financial HR managers
Evolution in Prebiotic Systems: Cooperation In Utility-Based Agents
Get PDFPrebiotic evolution is one of the major challenges in complex systems theory. What differentiates the living from the nonliving is a perennial source of debate. It has been recently affirmed that discussions about if and how we can draw a line that separates life from non-life are useless. He motivates this using a "continuity thesis" (CT) argument i.e the existence of a continuum between inanimate and living state of matter. For other authors CT it is equivalent to say that there is no unbridgeable gap between inorganic matter and living systems, plus the corollary that the emergence of life is considered a highly probable event. This is related to the problem of how the minimal complexity required for a chemical system to start on the path of Darwinian evolution has been achieved. The CT from one side, and a trend towards an increasing complexity on the other, seems to require the existence of a constant driving force behind abiogenesis for two distinct reasons: a) to counterbalance destructive tendencies like hydrolysis in the evolving chemical structures and b) reduce the role played by chance to a minimum acceptable for a scientific discourse. In this work, I present a brief review of what has been considered the main driving forces behind prebiotic evolution i.e. self-organization of far-from-equilibrium open systems and (generalized) Darwinian evolutionary mechanism. I argue that, in order to explain the robustness and sustainability of complex systems not yet fully capable of Darwinian evolution a third element must be added: cooperation between molecular autonomous agents properly defined. In this work, I propose a general theoretical result to show how cooperation formation between a population molecular utility-based agents can give rise to self-sustaining networks
Geomechanical Modeling for Creating New Technologies of Deep Hydrocarbon Fields Development
Get PDFAbstract— The paper presents the results of the experimental investigation of the rock physical properties in relation to issues of creating scientific fundamentals for new hydrocarbon production technologies. Nowadays easily accessible deposits of oil and gas which lies at depths of 2-3 km are gradually being depleted. The production of hydrocarbons from unconventional sources becomes all the more urgent. These include shale gas and oil, Arctic hydrocarbon resources, gas hydrates, coal bed methane, oil and gas from deep horizons. The development of such deposits requires the creation of new technologies. The knowledge of mechanical and filtration properties of rocks lying at great depths is needed for creation of the new oil production technologies. The investigation of the dependence of well stability and permeability of rocks on the stress-strain state which is determined by the pressure in the well and its bottom hole design in conditions of high rock pressure is required also. For the first time the tests of reservoir rocks from the depths of more than 6 km were carried out on the true triaxial load system. The real conditions that occur in the vicinity of the borehole for various bottom designs at lowering pressure were experimentally simulated on the unique experimental facility, Triaxial Independent Load Test System built in the Institute for Problems in Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Science. It is found that the possibility to improve the production rate of a well by increasing pressure drawdown in a well exists despite the low permeability and high strength of such rocks.
Index Terms— deep reservoirs, rock, well, the test facility, deformations, stresses, strength, elastic moduli.
 
Developing a Driver Alert and Alarm System for High Quality Driving Supports
Get PDFAbstract—Prevention and vigilance plays a key role in preventing threatening risks and potential dangers when one is driving. In other to achieve the goal of averting danger when driving, people need valid and up to date information about: driving behavior, driving environment and vehicle status. There are a lot of factors that needs to be considered in order to keep a driver safe. Drunk driving, blind spots, bad driving habits, fatigue driving, and vehicle status are all factors that needs to be taken into account if safety is to be improved. Driving comfortability greatly depends on vehicle’s status and driver’s behavior. To evaluate the comfort level for a particular ride, we developed a number of formulas for evaluating various variable like vibration which has their base from the ISO. Rules for detecting these factors like fatigue driving, blind spot collision, etc., were set in this study, each of which has a threshold that shouldn’t be exceeded. In this paper, we introduce an in-car monitoring system for driving safety and provide alert and alarm functions using Android device connected to the car’s on-board diagnostics system(OBD-II) and the in-car module
Preparation and Solvents Effect Study of Asymmetric Cellulose Acetated/Polyethyleneimine Blended Membranes for Dialysis Application
Get PDFThe aim of this research is to study the effect of various solvents on membrane morphology and performance of cellulose acetate (CA) based polymeric membranes having Polyetyleneimine (PEI) additive. The CA/PEI blended membranes are to be used for dialysis operation. For this purpose, acetic acid, formic acid, 1-Methyl-2-pyrolidone (NMP) and N, N-Dimethylacetamide (DMAC) are used. The best performing membrane is selected and is modified using various solvents to choose the best solvent that can enhance the membrane performance efficiently. Afterwards contact angle measurement, pure water flux and water up take of modified membranes are determined to check the change in dialysis performance. Surface morphology of membrane is studied using SEM and AFM. All these results displayed blending of polymer, solvents and additive in different ways. All prepared membranes were also tested for bovine serum albumin (BSA) rejection and urea clearance. From all the solvents used, formic acid gave the best results. The blending is homogeneous and macro void formation is appropriate for dialysis application. The replacement of acetic acid with formic acid (C.A+ F.A+PEI) showed hydrophilic nature and increased the BSA rejection percentage. Urea clearance was augmented as well to an appreciable value. The results revealed that from all the mentioned above solvents, formic acid is most suitable one for dialysis operation
Ecological Management and Indian Ethos - A Review
Get PDFEnvironment plays a very significant role in human civilization. Human beings have close relations with the biosphere in which they live. The whole environment and ecology consisting of earth, air, water, plants and animals provide the necessary and sufficient conditions for sustaining human life. The last few centuries have been dominated by human beings, and are referred to by some scholars as "anthropocene", or a period of human domination over the planet. This domination has impacted the planet, leading to the rapid depletion of wildlife and their habitat. In the last few decades, growing human populations and their consumption levels, accompanied by greater need for water, electricity, metal, food, housing and other luxury items has led to the quick erosion of other species. This loss of species has been guesstimated by various scholars at anywhere between one per hour to one per day. Although human beings are considered the most intelligent life form on earth, they are responsible for most of the damage done to planet earth. Developing countries as well as developed countries alike are all suffering from environmental pollution. Therefore, today environmental problems have been the object of discussion everywhere from village to parliament
Glassphalt Concrete Production Using Stone Dust as a Filler through Trial Mix Design.
Get PDFVarious studies have shown that waste glass has been crushed and screen and can serve as an alternative replacement of fines and coarse aggregate when mixed with Bitumen to form a glassphalt concrete which can be used in landscaping or non-load bearing walls in a building. This researched work was intended to compare and analyze the hot mix glassphalt (HMG) and the strength of asphalt concrete using trial mix design through investigative of their performances. The mineral fillers with different percentage by total weight of the mixture used in the study were crushed igneous rock that passes from 0.075mm to 200mm sieve sizes. However, this production did not only establish the usage of glassphalt but also analysis grade of bitumen like 60/70, 30/40, 80/100, 180/200 etc, its sustainability for various road uses either for priming eg. MCI, tackcoat eg. RSI, or surface dressing e.g S125. Various tests were conducted like water absorption test, marshal stability test, void ration test etc. using bitumen grade 60/70 which has a flash point of 250oc and a melting point of 48 – 56oc. Different types of glassphalt concrete was classified: Macadam, Binder course and wearing course with experimental design to determining the maximum deformation load that will deform the glassphalt concrete to aid in predicting its design life span and equally makes necessary recommendations
Lateral Autonomous Performance Maximization of Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicles by Integrated Passive and Active Morphing
Get PDFAbstract— In this conference article, combined passive and active morphing approach is applied on tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (TUAVs) for autonomous flight performance maximization. For this intention lateral dynamic modeling of TUAVs manufactured in Erciyes University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Model Aircraft Laboratory is investigated in order to obtain lateral state-space model and a simulation model. Our manufactured TUAV is named as ZANKA-III which has weight of 50 kg, range of around 3000 km, endurance of around 28 hour, and ceiling altitude of around 12500 m. Von-Karman turbulence modeling is applied in order to capture atmospheric turbulence in lateral simulation environment. A stochastic optimization method called as simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (i.e. SPSA) is used in order to get optimum dimensions morphing parameters (i.e. extension ratios of wingspan and tailspan, assembly positions of wing and tailplane to fuselage)
Development of Photovoltaic Inverter for AC Load
Get PDFThis project presents the development of Photovoltaic (PV) push-pull inverter for alternating current (AC) application. There are two main systems in this project which is the PV system and the inverter system. The photovoltaic system consists of the PV panel which is used to seep sunshine to recharge the battery and the solar charger controller circuit that prevent battery from surpluses voltage is connected between solar PV and battery. While the push-pull inverter play a pivotal role in switching from direct current (DC) voltage to AC voltage for the inverter system. Then the AC voltage rose to 230 V by using transformer. The push-pull inverter switching is controlled by a multi-vibrator driver circuit. This project used two light emitting diode (LED) light bulb as an AC load and Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor (MOSFETs) as the power switches. This project had been analysed through software and hardware prototype for comparison purposed. The efficiency of ideal system that obtains from software simulation is 94.9% while for the hardware prototype is nearly to 95%. While the total harmonic distortion (THD) for both voltage and current is 48.32% from software simulation and 47.9% from hardware prototype analysis. The results have been found in good agreement with the analysis presented in this paper