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Environmental, demographic, and geographical factors affecting the diffusion of covid-19: A case study
Full text linkItaly was the first European country to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study explains how COVID-19 transmitted so rapidly in northern Italy, analysing the underlying relationships between infected people and environmental, demographic, and geographical factors that influenced its spread. This study analyses data on COVID-19 cases alongside environmental data. This study finds out that cities with little wind, high humidity and frequently high levels of air pollution — exceeding safe levels of ozone or particulate matter — had higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Overall, then, results here suggest that that geo-environmental factors may have accelerated the spread of COVID-19 in northern Italian cities, leading to a higher number of infected individuals and deaths.Keywords. Air pollution; Environment and health; Natural hazards; Risk assessment; Urban environment; Sustainable development and policy assessment; Sustainable growth.JEL. F64; I10; I18; I19; H75; H84; Q50; Q51; Q52; Q53; Q55; Q58
Measuring performance of countries to face covid-19 threat and the role of low population and high level of helthcare expenditure to mitigate negative effects
Full text linkAbstract. The goal of study is to suggest the Index of resilience that detects which countries have had the best performance to reduce mortality related to COVID-19 pandemic and the Index of preparedness that assesses performance of countries to support COVID-19 vaccinations. The sample under study is European countries having a similar socioeconomic system. Results show that Iceland, Norway and Finland have a higher performance of resilience, reducing mortality in society, likely because a smaller size of population, whereas Belgium and Czech Republic the lowest performance. Instead, The UK has the highest performance to rollout vaccinations, driven by a high level of healthcare expenditure and the discovery and production of one of the COVID-19 vaccines. However, results suggest that manifold countries have low pandemic preparedness and several biological security weaknesses that have to be improved with and effective planning of crisis management for pandemic threats.Keywords. Covid-19, Coronavirus infections, Crisis management, COVID-19 Mortality, Vaccination plans, Pandemic preparedness, Pandemic Responses, Healthcare expenditure, Population.JEL. M15
Economic reforms and economic growth in Nigeria: A Chow test approch
Full text linkAbstract. The study examined the impact of economic reform programmes on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1980 – 2016. This period was selected since it covered the period of three main economic reform programme in Nigeria history. The reform programmes during the period were the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) of 1986, The National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) of 2004 and the transformation agenda of 2011. A combination of co-integration and error correction modelling techniques and the chow breakpoint test were employed. In the estimation of the specified model, dummy variables were constructed to capture economic reform programmes. The chow test was adopted to confirm the findings from the error correction representation by checking for structural brakes the growth function. The empirical result shows that economic reforms on the aggregate have positive and statistically significant long run impact on economic growth in Nigeria. However, in the short run the impact was negative. This suggest that economic reform had a J curve effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The J curve effect occur when a policy or programme have adverse effect in period immediately after its implementation. However, the effect reverse in the long run and become positive. For the individual reform programme, the structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) of 1986 didn’t enhance economic growth in Nigeria. It even retarded economic growth with its negative coefficient. The National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) of 2004 and the transformation agenda of 2011 stimulated economic growth in Nigeria. This propelled the Nigeria economy to become the biggest economy in 2013 overtaking South Africa. Generally, the economic growth stimulated by economic reforms did not transform into economic development as the poverty level is still high, unemployment rate and other social indicator have negative trend. This could be as a result of abandonment of economic reforms following changes in political leadership of the country. This study therefore recommend the need to go back to government deliberate home grown economic reform programme to lunch the country back of a steady growth path which with the mind of attacking the poverty problem in Nigeria particularly as we approach the post covid-19 economic policy.Keywords. Chow Breakpoint, Economic reform, SAP, NEEDS, Transformation agenda.JEL. G38, J18
The financing of the long and medium term needs of SMEs: A contextualization of the rule of minimum financial balance
Full text linkThe main aim of this study is to highlight the breaking of the minimum financial balance rule by companies and propose ways of financing the long and medium term needs of SMEs in a context of excessive rationing of bank credit in order to obtain a balanced financial structure. We data from two surveys, the first based on the observation of 70 Cameroonian SMEs in 2011 in which we focus on the frequencies of the alternative methods of financing the long and medium term needs of SMEs. On the data of the second survey performed between 2013 and 2016 on 452 SMEs in Cameroon, we apply a Logit regression to empirically explain the probability of the choice of the mode of financing made in the presence of credit rationing and use the techniques leading to a mode of financing to highlight the modes of financing chosen by SMEs. Our results show the following modes of financing: For the first survey; equity, savings and loan associations (tontines), assistance from friends and family members, microfinance institutions, intercompany credit, leasing institutions, and bank credit. For the second survey: savings and loan associations, microfinance institutions, intercompany credit, help from friends and family members, contributions of partners, leasing institutions, and the issue of new shares are found as the main modes of financing. These findings can be important in line with the Modigliani and Miller, Myers and Majluf, and Quintart models if the question of the financing of SMEs in the context of excessive credit rationing is to be addressed.Keywords. Financing; Needs; Balance.JEL. C52; L25; M14
Covid-19 in society between 2020 (without vaccinations) and 2021 (with vaccinations): A case study
Full text linkAbstract. This study develops a comparative analysis of the effects of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between April-June 2020 (without vaccinations) and April-June 2021 (with vaccinations) in Italy. The findings reveal that the dynamics of COVID-19 is declining because of its seasonality that reduce the effects in summer season. Hence, this study provides critical lessons that could be of benefit to countries for crisis management of pandemic diseases, showing how seasonality can reduce the diffusion of airborne disease of novel viral agents in summer.Keywords. Pandemic diseases; Coronavirus; Vaccines; Vaccination campaigns; Health systems; Climate; Seasonality.JEL. C52; L25; M14
A brief perspective on globalization
Full text linkThe purpose of this paper is to examine globalization from a variety of perspectives relevant to the present day and time. We first examine what is globalization in present day context, then we examine the importance of financial flows from globalization. We further examine into how digitization is taking place across the globe and the consequences that it brings. We also look at the consequences of globalization on the environment and finally we come to the discussion of the importance of globalization in present day times and especially in regards to the Covid-19 pandemic. Is prudence in terms of globalization a better path rather than irrational exuberance.? Is stability better than volatility?Keywords. Globalization; Finance; Digitization; Environment; Sustainability; Covid-19; Public Health.JEL. C52; L25; M14