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Do fiscal measures stimulate private investment in Africa?
Get PDFAbstract. The study inspects the effect of fiscal measures on private investment in Selected African countries between 1980-2016.The study adopts Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) Bounds testing approach develop by Pesaran, Shin & Smith (2001) in estimating the relevant relationship. The results of the long run estimates show that show that interest on debt payment, government expenditure, expected inflation, exchange rate and government tax revenue, all have positive relation with private Iivestment among five selected African countries, suggesting that fiscal measures have crowd in effects on private investment in the long run. While, the results of the short run dynamics show that change in the previous one lagged periods of the variables negative impacts on private investment, whereas the lagged two of the variables shows positive impacts on private investment in the short run, suggesting that there is a crowd out fiscal measures crowd out private investment in among the five selected African countries. The study recommends that the policy makers need to ensure fiscal discipline, if private investment must survive in African.Keywords. Fiscal Measures, Private investment, Africa, Exchange rate.JEL. H30, E20, E65
Imperialism and global inequality: A critical analysis
Get PDFAbstract. The article intends to analyse economic changes between advance and less-developed countries and the issues of catching up. Our approach would be to analyse the evolution of developing countries (less-developed) in the world economy in a historical perspective. The important question for 21st century is whether the regions in Asia, Africa and Latin America would be able to catch or not? To answer this we need an understanding of both economics and history, which seems to be critical for a fuller picture on this issue. There have been on-going discussions about a sharp contrast in the international distribution of wealth between the rich (industrialised) and poor (primary producing) countries and it has been emphasised that the benefit of technical progress in the advanced economies would trickle down to the poor countries. The study finds that during the last three decades, there have been huge economic changes taking place globally and structural changes and patterns of trade have also taken place both in advance and developing countries. However, some developing countries have achieved faster growth rates than the advanced economies, particularly China, India, Indonesia and Turkey. However, they constitute a small numbers among the developing countries, but accounts large number of its population. The study concludes that most poor countries have not been able to converge, while largely the two largest ones, namely China and India have experienced rapid growth rates and economic changes in recent decades.Keywords. Global inequality, Catching-up, International trade.JEL. P45, O47
An empirical analysis of the impact of floating exchange rate on balance of payment in Nigeria (1986 - 2016)
Get PDFAbstract. This paper empirically investigates the impact of floating exchange rate on balance of payment in Nigeria during 1986 – 2016. Unit root test, cointegration test, VEC Granger causality/Exogeneity Wald test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were econometric tools used to establish the relationship between exchange rate and balance of payment. The results showed a positive and statistically significant relationship in both short-run and long-run between balance of payment and exchange rate of the Nigerian Economy during the period under review. The VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity further revealed that the major determinants of exchange rate are real GDP and money supply. It further reveals that the nexus among the variables runs from government expenditure to real GDP and money supply to exchange rate, and then to Balance of Payment. Therefore it was recommended amongst other things that the policy of exchange rate depreciation should be maintained but with government intervention guide. Government through Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should apply expenditure reducing monetary policies through money supply and domestic credit to promote favourable BOT which invariably stabilizes BOP.Keywords. Floating exchange rate, Balance of payments, VECM.JEL. F10, F30, F31
Is OBOR by China fundamental to Human Progress? A non traditional viewpoint
Get PDFAbstract. This is a short note that gives a non- traditional view point of One Belt One Road (OBOR) plan by China by suggesting that it is not about Chinese efforts of supremacy on other lands but a prediction of human cognition that seem to suggest that OBAR may well be a step towards creating an intricate balance for the eco system of this planet.Keywords. Economic integration, Political history, Applied cognition.JEL. F15, F36, F50
Superpowers and conflict development: Is it a possible relation for supporting human progress?
Get PDFAbstract. This conceptual paper analyzes the role of superpowersthat are nationswitha high economic-war potential and the ability and expertise to exert influence on many geoeconomic regions at global level. Superpowers have a vital role in world systems with conflict development and resolution that are directed to achieve/sustain a global leadership to cope with consequential environmental threats and/or to take advantage of important economic opportunities worldwide. This role seems to generate economic, technological and social change and, as a consequence, human development in the long run.Keywords. Great Power, War, Conflict, Resolution, Global Leadership, Empire, Imperialism.JEL. N30, O30, O31, I23
The future of economic growth in the World’s largest economies
Get PDFAbstract. The future of economic growth is projected by solving differential equations describing growth rate date. Analysis was carried out for 12 countries representing the leading economies responsible for around70% of the global economic output. Out of all these countries, the most secure and stable economic growth is in Japan, Germany and France. In contrast, economic growth in China, India and Brazil are strongly insecure and potentially leading to the economic collapse. Economic growth in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia are on the border line. They also might become unsustainable. Economic growth in the remaining two countries, Italy and Russian Federation, is unpredictable. As for the preventive measures, for Japan, Germany and France, growth rate should be, if possible, maintained at a small value below 1%. Economic growth in these countries is described by logistic trajectories. Their asymptotic approach to a maximum value is hard to control but the growth rate should not be allowed to be substantially increased. For China, India and Brazil, growth rate should be now decreasing sufficiently fast to avoid the potential economic collapse. For the USA, UK, Canada and Australia, it would be also advisable to decrease their growth rate faster than in the recent years. For two countries, Italy and Russian Federation, it is essential to stabilise, if possible, their economic growth.Keywords. Gross Domestic Product; Future Economic Growth; Sustainable Economic Growth; Economic Collapse; USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Brazil, India, Italy, Canada, Russian Federation, Australia.JEL. A10, B41, C02, C20, C50, F00, F01
Recent US-China tariff war: Opportunities for Indian pharmaceutical exports?
Get PDFAbstract. The inception of World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 was expected to reduce trade barriers across member countries on one hand and facilitate growth though promotion of international trade in merchandise products and services on the other. The subsequent WTO-led reforms deepened the globalization wave. In recent times however, the world is witnessing a phase of ‘de-globalization’, with rise in trade barriers and inwardness. The recent increase in US tariffs on Chinese exports and countermeasures imposed by China are a case in point. In 2014 India has initiated the Make-in-India scheme for deepening industrialization and facilitating exports. The current paper evaluates the possible opportunities for expanding Indian pharmaceutical exports in the US market, given the increase in tariff against Chinese products with the help of select trade indices. The analysis portrays a modest opportunity for Indian pharmaceutical exports in the US market, based on their past performance. Only six products at HS 6-digit level, based on the six indicators, are found to be enjoying competitiveness in the US market. The paper concludes that facilitating R&D in pharma segment as well as expanding the coverage of mutual recognition of standards in US may be explored as possible steps for enhancing Indian exports.Keywords. India, US, Pharmaceutical trade, Trade indices, Trade policy, Make in India.JEL. F10, F13
Classification of innovation considering technological interaction
Get PDFAbstract. This study here categorizes innovations considering the taxonomic characteristics of interaction between technologies in complex systems. The proposed classification, in a broad analogy with the ecology, includes four categories of technology considering the typology of their interaction: 1) technological parasitism is a relationship between two technologies A and B in which A benefits from the interaction with B, whereas B has a negative side from interaction with A; 2) technological commensalism is a relationship between technologies where technology A benefits from B without affecting it; 3) technological mutualism is a relationship in which technologies A and B benefit from the activity of the other; finally, 4) technological symbiosis is a long-term interaction between A and B technologies that generates coevolution in complex systems. This classification can predict evolutionary pathways of technologies. This study here begins the process of clarifying typologies of interactive technologies that explain the long-run evolution of technology. The theoretical framework can be a ground work for development of more sophisticated theories to clarify technological change.Keywords. Classification of innovation, Technological interaction, Technical change, Technological evolution, Evolution of technology, Complex systems.JEL. B50, B59, O30, O33, O39