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After Paris a new period for mankind
Get PDFAbstract. Planet Earth now enters a new era characterized by the fight against global warming and it's consequences. Can countries or individuals adapt resiliently? Or will international governance finally make progress at COP 25 in Glasgow? We will soon reach more than 1.5 degrees plus. .Keywords. Keeling curve, greenhdeouse gases, coal fired power plants, temperature rise, irreversible transformation.JEL. Q10, O31, O33, Q01, Q16, Q18
Public-private partnership models for improving electricity generation in Tanzania: The case of independent power producers and Tanzania electric supply company
Get PDFAbstract. Public – Private Partnerships (PPPs) have become a popular global strategy for addressing energy infrastructure challenges. However, the question on which PPPs model works best for a particular project in the range of more than a dozen different models, remains unsettled by different governments of the world. This study examined the necessary conditions for enhancing Public- Private Partnership (PPPs) models for improving electricity generation in Tanzania. Overall, the study findings revealed that, performance of PPPs in electricity generation projects was being hindered by elements such as unpredictable payments guarantee, skewed contracts for PPAs, lack of transparency and fair competition and high costs of electricity. Findings suggests that, the quality of political, economic and social institutions, both formal and informal are important for influencing the functioning of PPPs projects and its economic outcomes. Also, robust and inclusive institutions, the quality of governance structures, laws, rules, regulations, and policies as well as the accepted norms and customs, predict the best outcomes. The reverse is equally true. In addition, rent seeking activities decrease appreciably as institutional competence improves accordingly as well as the capacity of the state to regulate activities of private investors.Keywords. Public – Private –Partnerships, Independent Power Producers, electricity generation projects, Tanzania.JEL. ???????????????
When armies don’t fight: Are militaries in India and Pakistan strategically aligned to promote peace in South Asia?
Get PDFAbstract. The paper analyses role of military spending and number of military personnel in India and Pakistan in conflict mitigation. The paper finds that Pakistan’s military spending is a cause of deterrence from Indian hegemony in the region confirming the defence literature that puts the role of military as a strategic asset for a country. The paper also suggests that both democracy and economic development puts downward pressures on India and Pakistan hostilities however democracy is not a sufficient condition in itself to mitigate conflict. The innovation of the paper is that it constructs real proxies of conflict from the defence literature and utilizes defence spending in the analysis as a means to a peaceful resolution between bilateral issues within South Asian region.Keywords. Military, Conflict Resolution, South Asia.JEL. 011, 033, 041, 047, P24
How do environmental, demographic, and geographical factors influence the spread of Covid-19
Get PDFAbstract. Italy was the first European country to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study explains how COVID-19 transmitted so rapidly in northern Italy, analysing the underlying relationships between infected people and environmental, demographic, and geographical factors that influenced its spread. This study analyses data on COVID-19 cases alongside environmental data. This study finds out that cities with little wind, high humidity and frequently high levels of air pollution — exceeding safe levels of ozone or particulate matter — had higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Overall, then, results here suggest that that geo-environmental factors may have accelerated the spread of COVID-19 in northern Italian cities, leading to a higher number of infected individuals and deaths..Keywords. Air pollution, Environment and health, Natural hazards, Risk assessment, Urban environment, Sustainable development and policy assessment, Sustainable Growth.JEL. F64, I10, I18, I19, H75, H84, Q50, Q51, Q52, Q53, Q55, Q58
A CO2 temperature equation
Get PDFAbstract. Modelling climate change at its core equation - temperature against CO2 concentration may allow a projection of the future path of global warming. The conclusion is certain: considerably hotter.Keywords. Average global temperature, CO2 concentration, Hawking irreversibility.JEL. B14, B24, B51
How the panic of 1907 passed Argentina by
Get PDFAbstract. This paper examines Argentina’s Caja de Conversión in 1907 and 1908, when a financial panic affected a number of other financial markets. Through an analysis of the Caja’s monthly balance sheets (digitized in an accompanying workbook), it tests the degree of the Caja’s currency board orthodoxy and analyzes the effects of the panic on the Argentine economy.Keywords. Argentina, Caja de Conversión, currency board, 1907.JEL. N16
Volatility stylized facts in the Moroccan stock market: Evidence from both aggregate and disaggregate data
Get PDFAbstract. Financial markets in emerging countries are generating considerable literature, aiming to understand their organization, perspective, and performance. In this context, few studies have expressed interest in the Moroccan financial market and even fewer researches have addressed the issue of the Moroccan financial market volatility. In this paper, we investigate variety of common properties, labelled as “stylized facts. Our results show that global and sectoral indices of Moroccan Stock Market share the majority of stylized facts. In fact, absolute returns correlation coefficients are positive and tends to decay at a much slower pace. Hence, volatility of Moroccan Stock Market captures the properties of volatility clustering and long memory. We also find evidence of volatility asymmetry. Yet, the level is not statistically significant for most of the indices. More interestingly, the Omori law indicates that Moroccan Stock market is relatively stable after financial shocks.Keywords. Asymmetry, long memory, multifractality Omori Law, Stylized facts, Volatility.JEL. G11, G17, C53, C58
International trade and economic growth in Nigeria: An auto regressive and distributed LAG bound test approach
Get PDFAbstract. This paper empirically investigated the impact of international trade on economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1981 – 2017. To achieve the purpose of this research, we estimated real GDP as a function of imports, exports, gross fixed capital formation, unemployment rates and exchange rate. The methods used are: the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques, Augmented Dickey- Fuller unit root test, Johansen co-integration test, error correction technique, and the Granger causality test. The empirical results revealed that: all the variables used are integrated of the same order, 1(1) except for unemployment and gross fixed capital formation which were integrated of order 1(0); also, the bound test revealed that there is evidence of the existence of a long run relationship among the variables used; while the causality test revealed that exports granger causes economic growth in Nigeria. Findings revealed that there is short run impact of export trade on economic growth. Also, causality runs from imports and exports to economic growth in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study therefore recommends among other things that: the government should improve on her trade contents and concentrate on the exportation of labour intensive products and as a result, improve economic performance.Keywords. Economic growth, Exports, Factor endowment, Imports, ARDL.JEL. F14, F43