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Innovation Failure: Typologies for appropriate R&D management
Full text linkAbstract. In markets having innovation-based competition and market turbulence, one of the fundamental problems is the high risk of failure in new innovation projects that generates negative effects on firm performance and related competitive advantage. In the field of strategic and innovation management, a vital aspect is the categorization and explanation of different failure types in innovation model and how their role can slow down or spur technological advances. The study confronts this problem here by developing a taxonomy to categorize different failures in innovation projects for technology analysis of the stages and sources of innovation failures in order to sustain strategic management to improve organizational processes in goal setting and achieving. The development of this framework is due to the lack in current literature of the innovation management of a categorization that describes the different typologies of failure in innovation projects that occur in the model of innovation. This theoretical gap generates difficulties both to communicate the specific types of innovation failure and provide fruitful feedbacks for improving strategic change in markets. Three basic types of failure in innovation projects are proposed: a) achieving-goal failure; b) planning process failure; c) execution failure. Case study research verifies proposed taxonomy in practical contexts, revealing that pharmaceutical sector is prone mainly to achieving-goal failure in innovation projects, whereas aerospace and aircraft industries are affected mainly by planning process and/or execution failure in innovative projects. This study conceives that proposed taxonomy can be used to: (1) describe what categories of failure are in-process and which are out-of-process in innovation model designed, and (2) detect the pivot stage in which failure in innovation project can origin to understand potential and current sources. The failure of innovation projects reveals the temporary bounded rationality and limits of people and organizations to solve problems in complex environments. Hence, this study seeks to provide a general theoretical framework, supported by a case study research, which may guide R&D managers, designers, analysts, etc. when a failure occurs in innovation processes to strengthen strategic management with best practices on how to better direct organizational efforts to manage failures properly, by reducing negative effects and improving the re-design of new goal-setting directed to maintain the strategies of firm in the right direction to pursuing competitive advantage in turbulent markets.Keywords. Innovation Failure, Failure Analysis, Innovation project, Innovation Design, Goal Failure, Monitoring, R&D Management, Task Choice, Failure Management, Organizational learning.JEL. D81, G32, O31, O32, O33
How successful are International Monetary Fund loan programs?
Full text linkAbstract. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programs from 2000 to 2010 by looking at macroeconomic indicators such as the unemployment rate, inflation, real GDP, government debt as a percentage of GDP, and export value. Data is used from the year before the implementation of the IMF loan program to three years after the loan policy was implemented. We chose three years into the future because it gives time for the macroeconomic factors within a country to fully materialize while weeding out much “white noise” (shocks that have nothing to do with the program itself). Our analysis shows that IMF loan programs between 2000 and 2010 were generally unsuccessful in improving macroeconomic growth and stability in countries that sought loans. An accompanying workbook contains the data.Keywords. IMF; Lending.JEL. F30; F33; F34
Intra-industry trade: Revisiting theory and literature survey
Full text linkAbstract. Early references to intra-industry trade were mostly ignored for many years. It was only in the past two decades that intra-industry trade has received significant attention and has become a leading area for international economists. It has become increasingly common in recent decades due to the growth of international trade, globalization, and the integration of economies. Intra-industry trade can benefit countries by allowing them to specialize in their areas of comparative advantage and to access a wider range of products and services at lower prices. However, it can also pose challenges for some industries and workers who may face increased competition from foreign producers. The purpose of this paper is to review the extensive literature on intra-industry trade, assess the accomplishments of researchers in this area and predict future research directions. The paper evaluates intra-industry trade as a research program and assesses whether it can continue to advance in the future. To organize the paper, the authors evaluate current perspectives in four distinct areas: theory, measurement, empirical evidence, and policy aspects.Keywords. Intra-industry trade; Imperfect competition; Classical theories of trade.JEL. F11; F12; F13
The Austrian School and crisis cycles
Full text linkAbstract. The causal-realist approach to political economy, characteristic of the Austrian School, readily explains the causes behind credit cycles and the distinct phases between booms and busts. An underlying relationship between money, banking, property, contracts, and entrepreneurship is the key dynamic. Policy interventions that that allow financial institutions to violate monetary property rights impart systemic risk leading to vacillations between periods of rhapsodic expansion and distressed contraction. Escaping the crisis cycle requires adopting policies that affirm monetary property rights, enforce deposit contracts, and denies any political authorities that inhibit the choice of a commodity-based currency, or tolerates the legal abrogation of fiduciary responsibility relative to money substitutes. Only when credit issuance is restrained by the level of genuine savings in proper money will a natural rate of interest harmonize the structure of production with consumer preferences.Keywords. Austrian School; Boom büst; Business cycle; Cost of living; Credit cycle; Crisis; Discount rate; Entrepreneurship; Individualism; Joseph A. Schumpeter; Ludwig von Mises; Money; Money creation; Monetary policy; Realism.JEL. B41; B53; E32; E52; E65
Impact of loadshedding in South Africa: A CGE analysis
Full text linkAbstract. The aim of this paper is to provide a practical contribution to the body of knowledge on the impact of loadshedding in South Africa. This study adopted a pragmatic research methodology by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for empirical analysis. This study estimates that loadshedding will reduce economic growth by 2.3%, this higher than the Banks earlier prediction of a 0.6%. This study is limited to the effects of loadshedding and shed light on the South African economy that has been adversely affected by the Covid 19 pandemic and its recovery trajectory which is now stifled by persistent load shedding. Empirical analysis of the effects of loadshedding through the usage of the CGE model establishes the originality of this study.Keywords. Loadshedding; Electricity; Energy; CGE model.JEL. D58; L90; L94
Venezuela’s tragic meltdown
Full text linkAbstract. Mr. Chairman, thank you for this opportunity to express my views on “Venezuela’s Tragic Meltdown.” A great deal of the commentary on the topic is polemical, and more-or-less political and ideological self-justifications of one sort or another. In consequence, the discourse is often confused and confusing. In an attempt to bring some clarity to the topic, I will focus on the one necessary condition that must be satisfied before the Venezuelan economy can be turned around. Inflation must be stopped before stability can be established. Stability might not be everything, but everything is nothing without stability.Keywords. Currency board, dollarization, monetary reform, Venezuela.JEL. E50; E42; P21
The ill-fated currency board proposal for Indonesia
Full text linkAbstract. In February 1998 Indonesia toyed briefly with the idea of introducing a currency board system as a means of extricating itself from the Asian financial crisis. Although the then president Soeharto announced his government’s intention to implement such a system, international and domestic opposition was so vociferous that he aborted the plan. In my view this opposition was ill-informed. Moreover, it was motivated, to a considerable extent, by a desire to use the crisis to force a president widely disliked among the urban intelligentsia to discontinue some of his favoured economic policies—if not to bring about an end to his presidency—rather than giving top priority to dealing with the crisis itself. The nature of the crisis as it played out in Indonesia remains poorly understood, such that an analysis of the currency board proposal provides an opportunity to correct some misunderstandings and dispel some of the myths about this major episode in Indonesia’s modern history. In this paper I argue that in fact Soeharto’s embrace of the proposal was sensible, and that it was motivated by the desire to restore macroeconomic stability—which would have been not only to his own benefit but also that of Indonesia’s citizens.Keywords. Currency board; Proposal; Indonesia.JEL. F11; F12; F13
Venezuela’s tragic meltdown
Full text linkAbstract. Mr. Chairman, thank you for this opportunity to express my views on “Venezuela’s Tragic Meltdown.” A great deal of the commentary on the topic is polemical, and more-or-less political and ideological self-justifications of one sort or another. In consequence, the discourse is often confused and confusing. In an attempt to bring some clarity to the topic, I will focus on the one necessary condition that must be satisfied before the Venezuelan economy can be turned around. Inflation must be stopped before stability can be established. Stability might not be everything, but everything is nothing without stability.Keywords. Exchange rate regimes; Economic growth.JEL. F31; F33; O47
A survey of Venezuelan public opinion on the replacement of the Bolivar with either the U.S. dollar or the central bank of Venezuela with a currency board
Full text linkAbstract. This paper describes the methodology and presents the results of a Datincorp survey on Venezuela’s economic crisis. The survey was carried out in March 2017. A majority of Venezuelans do not trust the Central Bank of Venezuela, and believe that immediate change is necessary. A majority of Venezuelans also indicate that the implementation of dollarization or an orthodox currency board are not only the most desirable solutions in theory, but are also highly supported by Venezuelan public opinion.Keywords. Currency board, dollarization, monetary reform, Venezuela.JEL. E50; E42; P21
The Malayan Currency Board, 1938-1967
Full text linkAbstract. This essay examines the Malayan Currency Board from its formation in 1938 to its dissolution in 1967. It analyzes the orthodoxy of the board using high-frequency data, such as monthly statistics of currency notes in circulation. Accompanying the essay is a spreadsheet workbook which presents high-frequency data of the board in digital format for the first time, as well as balance sheets and other financial statements.Keywords. Brunei; Malaya; Malaysia; North borneo; Sarawak; Straits settlements; Singapore; Currency board.JEL. E59; N25; N26