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Alan Greenspan & Adrian Wooldridge, Capitalism in America: A History
Get PDFAbstract. Throughout history, market arrangements are necessary institutions in historical context. Greenspan and Woodridge provide a scholarly narrative for US economic history against the backdrop of creative destruction, irrational exuberance, and secular stagnation to evaluate periods when markets became more prominent and policies that made them less so.Keywords. Capitalism, Capitalism history, America.JEL. B00, B10, B30
Constructing a monthly GDP indicator for Suriname
Get PDFAbstract. Advancements in data collection and data processing techniques revolutionized access to higher frequency data. A large body of literature focusses on these higher frequency data in advanced economies. In contrast, small less-developed economies often lack adequate and reliable databases of high-frequency economic indicators. We construct a monthly GDP indicator, using a well-established statistical methodology. To monitor the quality of the indicator, we treat it as an in-sample forecast with respect to December observation of GDP for 2012 -2018. The results show that the constructed monthly GDP indicator is reliable and therefore its methodology applicable in many small developing countries.Keywords. Monthly GDP indicator, GDP.JEL. C51, E30, E32
The politics of fear and relationship with the effective level of crime and socioeconomic issues: Empirical analysis of a case study
Get PDFAbstract. The goal of this study is to analyze if a perceived risk of crime and social issues is supported by effective levels of empirical data. This study focuses on a vital case study, Italy that is one of the largest economies in Europe with socioeconomic issues also with a high flows of immigration from Africa and Middle East. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric analyses are applied on data from EUROSTAT and UNODC over a period from 2000 to 2019. Although levels of crime and immigration are declining over time, perceived risk of these social issues is high. In general, the perceived risk of crime seems to be overestimated. The only factor of concern in Italian economy for population is the increasing level of unemployment that can be a source of social issues. These results seem to be due to misleading information diffused by some political parties with media that induce people to overestimate perceived risk of crime and immigration: the politics of fear. The findings of this paper can provide a preliminary analysis and encourage the development of more in-depth studies to better understand the sources of fear of crime due to social issues and their possible interrelationships with social and political contexts in order to support appropriate policies in society.Keywords. Violent crime, Homicide, Sexual violence, Fear of crime, Perceived risk, Vulnerability, Immigration, Poverty, Europe, Political party, Politics of fear.JEL. I30, D63, F60
Health and economic outcomes of COVID 19
Get PDFAbstract. The paper undertakes a detailed analysis of health and economic outcomes of COVID 19 pandemic. The paper explains the need for governments to implement steps like partial lock downs in major metropolitans of the world to safe guard the public and contain the outbreak. The paper discusses the economic risks and opportunities for both developed and developing countries due to this ongoing pandemic. There is a risk of a recession and thus the author presents few steps that the governments and institutions of international governance can take to prevent a steep trough in business cycle. For a country like Pakistan, economic response to the pandemic may also include improvement of regional ties, especially with neighboring India; creating thriving domestic economy by promoting entrepreneurship and further strengthening domestic and regional commerce.Keywords. Health economics, Pandemic, Economic outcomes, Covid-19.JEL. H51, H75, I00, I30
Modelling the shadow economy of South Africa: Using the currency demand and MIMIC approach
Get PDFAbstract. This paper estimates the size and development of the South African shadow economy (SE) using two indirect approaches namely, the Multivariate Indicator Multivariate Causes (MIMIC) model and the Currency Demand Approach (CDA). The study uses time series from 2000 to 2019 (using quarterly data) to estimate the SE of South Africa for the period 2004 to 2018. The average estimated size of the SE from the CDA and MIMIC model are 22.47% and 25.45% respectively. Overall, the MIMIC and CDA models are both showing a slight decreasing trend for the same period. The study recommends further analysis to be conducted on economic segments in order to explore the SE activity distribution between different economic sectors; resulting in an easier way to identify, locate and monitor unrecorded businesses and also increase revenue collections and minimise non-compliance for different sectors.Keywords. Shadow Economy of South Africa, GDP, CDA, MIMIC.JEL. C32, H26, I2, O17, P48
Operating practice of commercial motorcycle taxis in Dar Es Salaam City: Challenges and opportunities
Get PDFAbstract. This paper is a result of the findings into the study on the operations of commercial motorcycle taxis in Dar es Salaam City (Tanzania). The paper among other key issues examines the daily operations of commercial motorcycle taxis to determine its challenges and sustainability thus providing ways of improving the sector. It also examined challenges and opportunities involved in the sector. The study involved 370 respondents which are operators and commuters. The study found out that there are a number of challenges associated with the daily operations of commercial motorcycle taxis in the city, like long working hours among operators thus affecting safety of the services offered; poor relations among operators and law enforcement officers which in turn has contributed significantly to low level of adherence to the set rules and regulations. The study further revealed that there are no contracts between operators and owners thus denying some basic legal rights of the operators and commuters. Furthermore the study found out that there are no basic facilities in the parking areas for the motor cycle taxi operations. The paper concludes that in spite of the existing challenges and problems in the operations of the commercial motorcycle taxis in the city yet, a good number of commuters depend on it as the mode of transport for different reasons. Thus it is important to address the aforementioned challenges so as to improve the general services offered by this mode of travel.Keywords. Commercial motorcycle taxis, Challenges and opportunities, Sustainability.JEL. L60, L62, L69
David vs. Diversification: Ricardian trade theory compared to financial principles, in varied designs
Get PDFAbstract. The purpose of this article is to assess the extent, if any, to which trade leads to specialization, as hypothesized by the 19th Century economist David Ricardo, or diversification, as under financial principles, and if so, when does the transition between the two occur? What other political-economic factors lead to diversifying versus specializing trade as related to risk? Were these factors present in the great rise of international trade, during the 19th Century food blights and Corn Laws? Methodologically, this article uses: historical documents, a simple game theory model, an analysis of post-World War II crises, qualitative cases of risk-reducing institutions with descriptive statistics, and a statistical regression of randomly chosen countries, explaining diversification deductively. The results show that: contrary to orthodox, “Ricardian” trade theory, trade is risky, and causes expansion into diverse firms. But, countries may then turn towards specialization, as larger economic nations may be beter able to take-on risks. Still, such states may turn immobile institutionally, while organizations and diversified supply chains have helped mollify international crises. Additionally, the discussion indicates that countries may also trade similar goods, called intra-industry trade, which reduces risk, and also intermediate goods. The conclusion addresses policies for reducing risk in trade.Keywords. International trade, Diversification, Ricardo, Risk, International Monetary FundJEL. B1, B50, F11, F13, G10
The March Towards Poverty: Why the Labour Government has much more to deal with than the economic consequences of Covid-19 in its upcoming budget
Get PDFAbstract. The New Zealand economy is in a parlous state and not simply because of the economic fall-out associated with the pandemic. For decades now, New Zealand has been falling further and further behind its OECD partners, with institutional inefficiencies, poor policy making and the almost willful refusal of successive governments to admit to (let alone confront) mounting economic problems, all combining to place us on the edge of a deep, and lasting, economic downturn. Across a broad plethora of areas and key economic indicators, New Zealand lags behind almost every other advanced country against which it has traditionally measured itself. These areas include the three pillars of social wellbeing (education, health, and social welfare), housing, tax, productivity and debt. In every case, we are either falling behind outcomes achieved in other countries (education, health, productivity), entrenching inequality through our failure to cater for the needs of our most vulnerable (housing, health, education, social welfare, tax), or failing to prepare adequately for looming economic and social costs - including those incurred by a rapidly aging population. If ignored, these problems will precipitate a crisis that may make the burden of recovering from Covid-19 pale by comparison (superannuation, health, debt). In its much anticipated post-Covid budget, the Labour Government needs to not only provide a clear blueprint for helping those who have been adversely affected by the pandemic and New Zealand’s subsequent lockdown, but also signal its intention to tackle the systemic weaknesses which have placed our economy at such risk, and which threaten to consign our future generations to unwelcome, and unnecessary, economic and social hardship.Keywords. Covid-19, New Zealand economy.JEL. I12, J13, Z12, D13
Level of agrarian Governance sustainability in Bulgaria
Get PDFAbstract. In Bulgaria, like in many other countries, practically there are no comprehensive assessments of the governance sustainability of agriculture and its importance for the overall agrarian development. This study tries to fill the gap and suggests a holistic framework for understanding and assessing the governance sustainability of Bulgarian agriculture. The newly elaborated approach is “tested” in a large-scale study for assessing the governance sustainability of country’s agriculture at national, sectoral, regional, eco-system and farm levels. The study has proved that it is important to include the “missing” Governance Pillar in the assessment of the Integral sustainability of agriculture and sustainability of agro-systems of various type. Multiple Principles, Criteria and Indicators assessment of the Governance sustainability of Bulgarian agriculture indicates that the Overall Governance Sustainability is at a “Good” but very close to the “Satisfactory” level. Besides, there is a considerable differentiation in the level of Integral Governance sustainability of different agro-systems in the country. What is more, the individual indicators with the highest and lowest sustainability values determine the “critical” factors enhancing and deterring the particular and integral Governance sustainability of evaluated agro-system. Last but not least important, results on the integral agrarian sustainability assessment based on micro (farm) and macro (statistical, etc.) data show some discrepancies which have to be taken into consideration in the analysis and interpretation, while assessment indicators, methods and data sources further improved.Keywords. Governance sustainability, Assessment, Agriculture, Subsectors, Agro-regions, Agro-ecosystems, Farming organizations, Bulgaria.JEL. Q10, O31, O33, Q01, Q16, Q18