University of Minnesota, Duluth

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    The Economic Impact of Inland Flooding in the United States: A Disaggregated Analysis

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    This paper examines the labor market impact of flood exposures using county-level quarterly employment and wage data from 1996-2023 for the contiguous US. We distinguish between flash floods with sudden, rapid and violent onset and floods with gradual, slower onset patterns. Our results show that an additional day of flash floods in a quarter reduces county-level employment and wages by 0.13% and 0.15% respectively. These sub-annual effects dissipate at annual frequencies, suggesting possible labor market adjustments that occur over time. Importantly, we document events occurring during federally declared emergency periods have an attenuated labor market impact compared to events outside of federally declared periods. Other heterogeneous effects reveal that economically vulnerable counties such as those with high labor market slack, experience substantially larger negative impacts from both flood types. While coastal counties face larger impacts, inland counties also suffer negative economic disruptions. Our findings uncover important sub-annual labor market disruptions that vary strikingly by local economic conditions and policy responses. Identifying these sub-annual labor market impacts could be crucial for understanding economic welfare losses and designing or improving rapid policy responses

    Impacts of an innovative credit + insurance bundle for marginalized farmers: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial in Odisha, India

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    Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers - and especially women - were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being

    Palm Oil Trade, Tariff Exposure, and Deforestation in Indonesia

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    Son Preference and Women’s Mental Health and Well-Being in India

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    We document the relationship between son preference and women’s mental health and well-being using data on mothers-in-law and their co-resident daughters-in-law from rural India. We leverage exogenous variation in the sex of the daughter-in-law’s firstborn child to analyze the effect of a firstborn (grand)son on the (grand)mother’s mental health and the relationship between the mother-in-law and the daughter-in-law. Mothers-in-law with firstborn grandsons experience an 18 percent reduction in the risk of anxiety or depression compared to mothers-in-law with firstborn granddaughters. We find no impact of a firstborn son on daughter-in-law mental health. The birth of a grandson also increases mother-in-law approval of her daughter-in-law working outside the home and using family planning, as well as the daughter-in-law’s labor force participation and modern contraceptive use. Our findings highlight the costs of gender-biased norms and the need for interventions that jointly address gender equity and mental wellness to improve women’s well-being

    Tariffs in Agriculture: Have Trade Agreements Contributed to Agricutural Sustainability?

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    This paper studies the effects of tariff schemes on the absolute and relative emissions embodied in agricultural imports across countries and commodities. Between 2001 and 2017, shifts in the global agricultural trade structure drove an increase in emissions embodied in imports; preferential margins widened under proliferating preferential trade agreements; and reductions in agricultural import tariffs were associated with increased trade flows. Building on these patterns, we employ a structural gravity framework to quantify the general equilibrium effects of two counterfactual tariff schemes: the universal adoption of most-favored-nation (MFN) rates and a transition to global free trade. Given the significance of relative emissions embodied in trade as a critical directional indicator, the paper finds that universal MFN rates reorient agricultural sourcing toward carbon-intensive exporters, while the abolition of tariffs shifts the trade structure toward suppliers with lower emissions intensities in agricultural production. However, analysis by importers and commodities uncovers divergent outcomes. These findings suggest that tailored trade policies should account for the specific trade structure of each agricultural product and the economic status of trading partners

    Uncovering the Key Bilateral Trade Linkages in the U.S. Domestic Food Supply Chain through Disruption Simulations

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    This paper simulates counterfactual scenarios to evaluate the impact of the bilateral trade linkage disruptions on the U.S. agricultural and food trade system. First, it estimates the relationship between bilateral trade linkage disruptions and agricultural commodity flows using an econometric gravity model. Second, it identifies key state-to-state trade linkages whose disruption significantly affects domestic trade and national welfare. Lastly, we extend the analysis to the state level to measure the consequences of uniform disruptions to states' interstate trade linkages. The findings provide insights for mitigating the effects of trade linkage disruptions and transport cost shocks on the domestic food supply chain

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