University of Minnesota, Duluth
AgEcon Search - Research in Agricultural & Applied EconomicsNot a member yet
211830 research outputs found
Sort by
Shocks and Stability: Understanding Trade Resilience to Natural Disasters
Get PDFInternational trade networks are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions from natural disasters, yet the resilience of global trade flows remains insufficiently understood. This study examines how different types of natural disasters—including earthquakes, droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms—affect bilateral trade, and investigates whether structural factors such as export diversification and sectoral positioning shape trade resilience. Our analysis proceeds in two stages. In the first stage, we employ a gravity model estimated using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on bilateral trade data from Comtrade and disaster data from EM-DAT to quantify the impact of disasters on export volumes. We find that upstream industries experience the most severe trade contractions—particularly due to extreme temperatures and storms—while downstream industries are relatively less affected. In the second stage, we adopt a moment-based three-step method to assess trade resilience by estimating the conditional probability of trade stability following a shock. Our results indicate that export diversification enhances resilience, but its effectiveness varies by economic context: high-income countries benefit more from complexity-driven trade adjustments, whereas low-income economies are more adversely affected by disruptions. Additionally, we find that disasters in trading partner countries generate strong spillover effects in vulnerable economies
India’s Cattle Export Ban to Bangladesh: Implications for Household Livestock Production in Bangladesh
Get PDF
Willingness to Participate in Agricultural Water Conservation Programs: Choice Experiment Evidence from the Upper Colorado River Basin
Get PDFAmid ongoing policy discussions around water scarcity in the Colorado River Basin, we examined factors influencing farmers’ stated participation in agricultural water conservation programs (AWCPs) in Colorado’s Upper Basin. Using data from a discrete choice experiment, we assessed preferences for hypothetical program attributes and payment levels. Respondents preferred AWCPs with shared conservation responsibility, water shepherding, and higher compensation. Participation declined for more intensive conservation practices and larger land commitments. Larger farms required lower payments to participate, while older and higher-income farmers required more. The findings identify program attributes, such as flexibility and transparent water use outcomes, that can help policy makers drive voluntary participation in AWCPs
Labor market impacts of water conservation under a national-scale public works program in India
Get PDFThis study evaluates the causal impact of farm pond construction under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) on rural employment outcomes at the Gram Panchayat (GP) level across India. Using a fixed effects panel regression model following Propensity Score Matching (PSM), we estimate the treatment effects on total household employment, Scheduled Caste (SC) employment, Scheduled Tribe (ST) employment, and women’s employment. Results indicate that farm pond construction generates a statistically significant increase of approximately 100 person-days in annual employment per GP. While SC and ST households experience positive employment gains, the magnitude is notably smaller than that observed for the general population, highlighting persistent inequalities in program reach. A significant increase in women’s employment (~74 households) suggests that local and flexible MGNREGA worksites play a crucial role in promoting female labor force participation. Control variables—such as household engagement in farming, irrigated area, presence of high schools, and internal pucca roads—exhibit strong associations with employment outcomes, indicating that the effectiveness of farm pond interventions is conditioned by local socio-economic and infrastructural contexts. GPs with higher agricultural activity and irrigation potential show greater employment gains, while better educational infrastructure is associated with reduced dependence on public employment schemes. The presence of pucca roads significantly enhances employment among SC/ST populations, emphasizing the role of connectivity in accessing rural worksites. These findings underscore the need for a place-based approach in public works planning and reinforce the role of natural resource management assets in inclusive rural development
Exaggeration Bias and Article Citations in Agricultural Economics
Get PDFResearch credibility in agricultural economics is compromised by two interrelated factors: selective reporting and low statistical power. These factors contribute to exaggerated findings that appear more persuasive and garner more citations. This study analyzes 849 articles published in leading U.S. agricultural economics journals between 2018 and 2023, with 48,962 observations. Two empirical analyses are conducted. The first regresses citation counts on p-values reported in article tables, a proxy for statistical power, article topics, and journal and year fixed effects. The second predicts the time it takes a journal to be cited ‘10’ times, given p-values and statistical power. We hypothesized that citation counts would be negatively associated with p-values (i.e., lower p-value attract more citations), while no specific hypothesis was formed for statistical power, as it is unobservable to readers. The results show that citation counts are strongly influenced by topic novelty and journal prestige, with studies reporting lower p-values receiving more citations, whereas adequately powered studies receive fewer. The misalignment between research rigor and citation counts raises concerns that farmers may adopt recommendations based on less reliable findings, as agricultural extension services may rely on citation metrics when evaluating scientific research. Thus, aligning citation-based evaluations with empirical credibility is important not only for maintaining trust in science but also for informing decisions made by farmers and extension agents
